Title: New Jersey's 'Red-Hot' Governor's Race

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Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning again, everyone. Now we'll talk about the New Jersey governor's race. The field is set for November, as you know, and both candidates are sharpening their messages. Republican Jack Ciattarelli, the former state legislator, has been leaning into culture war themes and calling for a sanctuary city ban while also pitching New Jersey as a haven for New Yorkers disillusion by progressive politics across the river in New York, I think especially if Mamdani is elected as mayor.

Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Navy veteran and congresswoman, is opening the general election campaign with a focus on affordability and an effort to frame the race as a rejection of Trump-aligned politics, and she associates Ciattarelli with Trump, who supports him. Nearly half of voters in the latest Rutgers-Eagleton poll say Trump is a major factor in how they're thinking about this race. That same poll shows Sherrill jumping out of the gate with a 20-point lead at least at this early stage. The contours of this context are coming into view, and so are the stakes. Joining us now is Tom Martello, Politics Editor and Political Columnist for NJ Advance Media. That's the Star-Ledger and NJ.com. Tom, thanks for coming on WNYC today. Hey, there.

Tom Martello: A pleasure.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, our phones are open, especially if you're a New Jersey voter. What's most important to you in this governor's race? Property taxes, the cost of living, Trump, other national politics? Who has a question about either candidate? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692, call or text. Tom, we'll start here because taxes and affordability are front and center, as often in New Jersey races. Ciattarelli is calling for property tax caps and broad fiscal restraint on the part of state government. Sherrill argues that that'll come at the expense of essential services if they cut back too much. Can you compare and contrast more specifically?

Tom Martello: I think it's difficult to compare and contrast because neither one of them have a-- it isn't a very clear vision for property taxes. I think that I'm looking at both of their policies, and I've been around for a while, and I've seen some of these things pop up in the past. I think, on property taxes, they're both talking about redoing the school funding formula. I think they would redo it in different ways. Ciattarelli is talking about putting caps on property tax per how your house is assessed. Sherrill is talking about increasing housing availability as a way to cut property taxes. I think it's not a very clear vision on both sides right now.

Brian Lehrer: You mentioned the school funding formula. I believe this was an issue in the Democratic primary where Sherrill was considered more conservative than some of the other Democratic primary candidates because she's willing to look at this more on a district by district basis in a way that would benefit the suburbs more than under the Murphy system with respect to how much state aid relatively well-off suburban districts get. Some of the other primary candidates wanted it to remain more focused on the cities in New Jersey with a lot of low-income populations and under-financed schools. Would that be an accurate description?

Tom Martello: Yes, I think so. I think you have to understand that Sherrill has to tread a line in the primary. New Jersey is largely a suburban state, and a lot of the decisions going throughout history, going back 30 and 40 years, were made by the state supreme court because the funding formula was unfair to the cities, to the urban kids. That has played out over the past 30 or 40 years. The formula has been changed, it's been changed again. Ciattarelli says it's unfair to the school districts in the suburbs, and I think Sherrill has to tread the line between the urban and the suburban. I think it's--

Brian Lehrer: Are there positions on that school funding formula, state aid, any different from each other at this point, or is it too unclear to say?

Tom Martello: I think it's unclear right now because I think that Ciattarelli is certainly more focused on suburban districts. We've had situations where, in refiguring out the formula, some of the large suburban districts have been hit pretty hard because they were felt to have been getting too much state aid, and then they peel back the state aid. What happens then is because they'll have to raise their local property taxes. I think it's a conundrum that's been around since they redid the formula for the first time back in 1990.

Brian Lehrer: I want to ask you how much Donald Trump is a factor in the New Jersey governor's race, and how much Zohran Mamdani is becoming a factor in the New Jersey governor's race. I'll start with that poll finding from Rutgers-Eagleton, which is nearly half the voters in the poll said Trump is playing a major role in how they think about this contest. That doesn't necessarily tell us whether they're pro-Trump or anti-Trump, but I want to take a call to help set up this question from Lucille in Hazlett that just came in. Lucille, you're on WNYC. Hi, there.

Lucille: Hi, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: I see you went to a Sherrill fundraiser last night, and the name Donald Trump came up.

Lucille: Oh, yes. First of all, there were over 100 people there, which was incredible. It was at a private home. Yes, Mikie pointed out that Ciattarelli has said that there is not a single issue that he disagrees with Trump on. What that tells me and what it should tell other voters is that if you disagree with anything that Donald Trump is doing, and by the way, a lot of those issues, like the big ugly bill, are going to affect New Jersey significantly. Then maybe you should really reconsider if you were thinking about voting for Ciattarelli.

Brian Lehrer: Lucille, thank you very much. I think I did see reporting to that effect, Tom. Can you confirm that? Did Ciattarelli-- was he asked somewhere, "Is there anything you disagree with Trump on," and he said no?

Tom Martello: Brent Johnson of NJ Advanced Media has a newsletter, What Makes Jersey Run, and he had post-primary interviews with both of the candidates, and those are the exact words. "At this time--" I think it was, "At this time, I don't disagree with him on anything." Now, the question is, will "at this time" change as the general election heats up? Really, Donald Trump is a huge factor. Phil Murphy is a huge factor. It really will come down to in September, which of the two the state voters are more angry with. Ciattarelli would like for it to be on the state issues. The budget taxes, property taxes are always high. One of the reasons why property taxes are very high all the time in New Jersey. They've never gone down.

I think when we go back to the property tax issue, neither of the plans would really cut property taxes. It just hasn't happened, but the voters are not happy about high cost of energy. They're not happy about the high cost of property taxes. A new poll came out today from Eagleton that said they're not happy about affordability issues. These come down to, on Phil Murphy's side, which Ciattarelli's always trying to link-- He's calling her Murphy 2.0. Donald Trump is very unpopular in New Jersey. If they're angry at Donald Trump, then Mikie Sherrill will do better. This poll has a favorability ratings of both Trump and Murphy. Murphy is in the low 40s. Trump's in the 30s.

It will be up to each of the campaigns to try to highlight one versus the other come what fall.

Brian Lehrer: Lucille, if you're still there--

Lucille: I am.

Brian Lehrer: At that fundraiser last night, where they made a point in support of Sherrill, that Ciattarelli said he doesn't disagree with Trump on anything, was there any particular Trump policy that they highlighted that they're arguing is really going to hurt New Jersey?

Lucille: I think one of the big issues was all the cuts to Medicaid. So many people that are on Medicaid don't realize that they're on Medicaid because it's not called Medicaid. I think in New Jersey, it's called Family Health. People that are on Family Health are on Medicaid, but they don't know it, so they'll find out soon enough. I do want to also point out that I live in Hazlet, and our monthly Democratic Club meetings have been pretty small over the years. 8 to 10 people. For the last two months, over 30 people. These people are engaged, and they're angry.

Brian Lehrer: Is that where the Sherrill fundraiser was last night? Hazlet?

Lucille: It was actually in Middletown, just one town over.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. Thank you very much. Let's go to Ethan in Jersey City. You're on WNYC. Hi, Ethan.

Ethan: Hello. How's it going?

Brian Lehrer: Good. What you got?

Ethan: I think Sherrill needs to focus on catering more towards progressives in this race. Otherwise, I don't think she's going to have enough motivation to get out the vote. For her to beat Ciattarelli, I think she needs to focus a lot on public transit, on other things. Her website's very anemic. She needs to focus on taxing the rich as well, to focus on funding NJ Transit. She has never mentioned PATH. She's never mentioned any of the light rails. A lot of New Jerseyans use those things to get around on top of NJ Transit, and she has mentioned zero of that on the campaign.

Brian Lehrer: Interesting. Ethan, thank you. Can you confirm the assertion there, Tom? Is she not talking about those things? I'm sure you're not seeing every campaign stop in every location, but have you heard anything like that before? Does that ring true?

Tom Martello: I think that there are a lot of other issues that she's focusing on, but when asked about-- she has to play it in the middle with Phil Murphy because Phil Murphy, he's not as unpopular per se as Chris Christie was when the last time we had an open election. When Christie was leaving office, Christie was down about 15%. Phil Murphy's not as unpopular, but clearly, NJ Transit is not something that he has succeeded on. When asked if there are differences between "Are you, or are you not Murphy 2.0?" When asked if there are differences between Murphy and her, doing a better job with NJ Transit does come up.

Brian Lehrer: To Ethan's larger point about turnout being an issue and needing to get progressive voters more fired up, that makes me think about two things. One, last year, when Trump came within, what, five or six points of Kamala Harris in New Jersey, surprising people, the numbers that I saw indicated that there really were hardly any more people who voted for Trump last year than there were in New Jersey in 2020. What changed was hundreds of thousands of people who voted for Biden in 2020 didn't show up at all in 2024. The Democrats weren't exciting people. Is that an issue that carries over into 2025 is a challenge for Mikie Sherrill?

The second part of that, we can take these separately, is look what just happened in New York City, where turnout flourished because the progressive candidates around Mamdani did inspire a lot of people.

Tom Martello: Absolutely. If all things being equal in New Jersey, Democrats shouldn't lose because they have an advantage. Even though it's decreasing, they have an 850,000-voter advantage over the Republicans. Republicans will concede if all the Democrats come out and they split the independent vote, a Democrat wins. Democrats have not been very good at turning their people out for many, many years. I think that is one of her big challenges this year is about a third of the Democrats showed up in the primary. It was 850,000 Democrats in total for six candidates.

That excited some Democratic operatives, saying, "Look, we're excited. We're all against Trump. We're all doing this," but how many of those will translate to Sherrill voters in the fall remains to be seen. She still needs to manage that while managing independent voters who are essentially very moderate. New Jersey's consistently been a moderate state. If we were to remove Donald Trump from the equation, if he was not president and this was a classic New Jersey race, it would be fought in the middle. The Republicans will be a little bit right of center, and the Democrats will be a little bit left of center.

I've seen races down through the years where sometimes the Democrat is a bit to the right of the Republican on some of these cases. That happened in the Christie Whitman, Jim Florio race back in 1993. If you remove Donald Trump from the equation, remove that from the equation, everybody's fighting for the middle. Now, Donald Trump is in the equation, and things get very messy for both sides, and especially messy for Mikie Sherrill.

Brian Lehrer: From what I've read, just as Donald Trump is in the equation from that side now, Zohran Mamdani is in the equation from the other side. I read that Ciattarelli has a message to New Yorkers, and that message is essentially, "If you don't like the prospect of a Mamdani mayoralty, come to New Jersey." Did he say that like that?

Tom Martello: There's actually a bill in the legislature which says, "Let's annex Staten Island." Yes, he did tweet to that effect, saying, "Hey, if you want to get out of being retribution, I think, from Mamdani, because you're largely a Republican borough, come on over." Obviously, that's not going to happen. I did take a look at the voter registration numbers. Actually, there are actually 20,000 more registered Democrats in Staten Island than Republicans, but of course, that's not the way they vote. They voted 64% for Donald Trump last year.

Brian Lehrer: On this how progressive, how centrist should Mikie Sherrill be, Laura in Warren, I think, has a different take than Ethan in Jersey City did. Laura, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Laura: Oh, yes. Thank you very much. Yes, I wanted to call. I'm an independent voter in New Jersey. In New Jersey, as you probably know, people who are independent can vote in either primary. I voted for Mikie Sherrill because she was the most centrist, in my opinion, of the Democratic candidates. There's a lot of independent voters in New Jersey, and they're not going to go for somebody like Mamdani. I really disagree that she should focus on progressive issues, like defunding the police or that kind of thing that has really gotten people angry. I would argue against that.

Brian Lehrer: In fairness to Mamdani, he's not running on defunding the police, just to be fair. In your case, when you say you voted for her because she was the more centrist candidate in the race or the most centrist, what issues does that attach to for you? Because I don't think any of them were running on defund the police in New Jersey. What issues was it for you?

Laura: No, it was just being what I felt was a more reasonable and practical person, more than any one particular issue.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. Seth in Jersey City, you're on WNYC. Hello, Seth.

Seth: Hey, Brian. Thanks for taking my call. I like Mikie Sherrill. I knocked on doors for her when she was first running for Congress in what was the Frelinghuysen district, NJ11, but I was definitely more in the Fulop camp in the primary. I thought he was the kind of person that could boost turnout in New Jersey and get Democrats excited. I don't think he's a DSA member, the Mamdani type. He's an ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-Marine, Mayor of Jersey City, whatever. It doesn't matter. He didn't win the primary.

My point is, the reason I called is, living in Jersey City, working in New York City, I really care about public transit. I would really love to see the governor propose some big bold plans like, not just funding PATH, but how about sending the light rail through the Lincoln Tunnel, or allowing buses to go through the Holland Tunnel, or just increasing public transit options. Then my real question between Sherrill and Ciattarelli would be, is there any space between them on the plan to widen the Turnpike?

That's something that Murphy's been in favor of, which doesn't make any sense as a member of the Democratic Party, someone that's supposed to care about public services and care about doing the right thing for most people. I'm just wondering if there's any space between the candidates on that issue.

Brian Lehrer: Do you mean by that, he should be focusing more on funding mass transit than widening the highway for cars? Turnpike?

Seth: Absolutely. I can't remember the exact number. Something like $12-billion plan to widen the Turnpike. We're still going to have a two-lane Holland Tunnel. It doesn't matter how wide you make the Turnpike. It's going to funnel down to two lanes.

Brian Lehrer: Once you get there, if you're going all the way to the city. Seth, thank you very much. Is that an issue in the campaign, Tom? Have you seen that come up?

Tom Martello: I have not seen that come up yet, but we're very early.

Brian Lehrer: We're almost out of time. Let me touch a couple of things briefly. How much is Ciattarelli running a culture war campaign? I did see one article, I think in a different publication, that indicated that he's highlighting Sherrill's previous record on trans women in sports.

Tom Martello: Yes. If you look at-- it's interesting because they all talk about, when we talk about Donald Trump, what does Donald Trump have to do with property taxes? Then, are we going to get involved in the culture wars? I think that becomes-- when Mikie Sherrill links Ciattarelli to Donald Trump, a lot of that has to do with the culture wars. I think we're at a period right now where they're testing things out. They're testing it out. We have seen this. He brought the trans issue up back in his previous campaign against Murphy in 2021. Linking Sherrill to Mamdani is another one, where the general idea is, "I am more moderate than you are, and you're more out of sync with New Jersey than I am."

Brian Lehrer: Either way, you're too far right or you're too far left.

Tom Martello: You're too far right, you're too far left. I think Ciattarelli said, "The Democrats have lost their mind." Now that we're into a big battle as to whether or not Sherrill will endorse Mamdani in their campaigns. No, she hasn't endorsed them. Then it comes back to like, "Well, I agree with Mamdani in certain ways. I think affordability is important." The meat of both of their campaigns, affordability is the very first issue.

Brian Lehrer: They're both running on affordability, but will her solutions for affordability be similar to his that he calls Democratic socialism? I think, from what you've been saying, we don't know that yet.

Tom Martello: No, we don't. The trans issue was-- if you watch the Philadelphia television stations last year, in the swing state, every other ad was about trans exploited.

Brian Lehrer: Does she have a record? Was there a vote in Congress or something like that that you really can point to, or--

Tom Martello: Yes, Garden State Equality did a comparison, and she voted no on the so-called Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act, which I'm quoting their site, "Federal legislation that restricts transgender girls and women from participating in sports programs for girls and women." This was from when they endorsed her June 30th of this year.

Brian Lehrer: All right. We'd have to take a closer look, I guess, at what was in that bill and how much it just allowed different leagues to set up different rules as opposed to making a blanket federal policy or anything like that. Obviously, more to come on that between now and-- [crosstalk]

Tom Martello: Everything will get painted in a broad brushstroke.

Brian Lehrer: That's right. Tom Martello, Politics Editor and Political Columnist for NJ Advance Media. That's the Star-Ledger and NJ.com. Tom, thanks so much.

Tom Martello: Thank you. It's been a pleasure.

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