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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good Friday morning, everybody. We're 10 days out from the election, and the political world is still trying to understand what happened in New York, New Jersey, and elsewhere with Latino voters who had swung meaningfully toward Donald Trump last year, but way back to the Democrats last week. What does it say about different groups of Latino voters? We all know Latinos are not a monolith. What do last week's results say about American politics in general right now?

On many measures, Latinos are in the political center quite frequently. The lessons from the Latino voters aren't only about the Latino voters. With us for this is Eli Valentin, assistant dean of graduate studies at Virginia Union University's Graduate Center in Harlem. He is also a contributing writer for City Limits and a guest political analyst at Univision. Eli, very interesting times. Thanks for coming on for this. Welcome back to WNYC.

Eli Valentin: Thanks for having me, Brian. A pleasure.

Brian Lehrer: After Mamdani won the primary in June, you wrote an article in City Limits called Latino Voters and the Political Earthquake in New York City. You even called Mamdani's win in the Democratic primary back then a seismic shift, an unexpected political earthquake. That was just the primary. Why a description that strong as it related to Latino voters after June 24th?

Eli Valentin: I think for the most part, the assumption is that Latinos tend to be more on the conservative side. In fact, there is some validity to that, especially older Latino voters that tend to be, again, more in the center and tend to support more establishment candidates. By the way, we saw a little bit of that in this past election cycle. At the same time, we are seeing especially more younger voters that tend to be more progressive in nature, and they tend to express their vote in that way as well. I think what we are experiencing may be a certain shift spearheaded by more younger voters. The shift is becoming less of a moderate to right and more, I would say, moderate to left.

Brian Lehrer: Can you start to break that down at all by neighborhood or national origin? Just staying with New York City for the moment. I see, and again, this is just the primary, you wrote, "Mamdani's greatest success was in Upper Manhattan, Washington Heights, and Inwood, but he barely won in East Harlem, and he lost on the Lower East Side in heavily Latino district." Why some of those differences at that point?

Eli Valentin: Yes. What I'm seeing is that, and like you said, Brian, Latinos, we are not a monolith, and we come from different countries. There are even nuances when it comes to our Spanish language differences in accents, and-- Sorry. Several cultural tendencies, even in cuisine, there are differences and much diversity. I think what we're seeing is that the diversity plays out among the different Latino groups when it comes to voting behavior and voting participation. Interestingly enough, what I have found is that among Puerto Rican voters in New York, we are seeing more a propensity to vote for, again, these more moderate establishment candidates.

Puerto Ricans in the primary were more favorable to Cuomo than Mamdani. That was not the case with South American voters and even some Dominican voters in Washington Heights, and, to some degree, in the Bronx as well. I think there are a lot of reasons why this may be the case. Part of it, in my opinion, stems from the age variety. Again, age has something to do with this. Puerto Rican voters tend to be a little bit more older. They're the first Latino group in New York to have an established presence. I think that may be some of the nuances that we're seeing within Latino voting patterns in New York.

Brian Lehrer: Maybe the most interesting place to look at is Queens. You wrote that there was a fascinating dynamic in Latino voting patterns in Queens compared to the vote for Trump there last year. We know Queens has so many different communities. What was some of that from Queens?

Eli Valentin: Yes. Queens is such a fascinating piece of the story here. Precisely as you say, Brian, we saw that many parts of Queens voted more for Trump than they did four years before, even eight years ago. There were even some election years--

Brian Lehrer: Can I throw in a stat that I got from your article about that, just to help give context for listeners? Trump last year did 18 points better in Queens than he did in 2020. 18 points better in Queens than he did in 2020. I mean, that's a lot.

Eli Valentin: It is a lot. It is a lot. There are lots of questions that come as a result of that shift that we saw, especially in Queens, more than in any other part of the city, and in New York more broadly. Interestingly enough, we saw Queens, the same Queens voters, the same neighborhoods like Corona, East Elmhurst, parts of Jackson Heights. We saw a strong support for Mamdani in the primary. As I continued to analyze the general election results from last week, I'm seeing that this support has remained steady for Mamdani in Queens.

We're speaking about the same election districts that, as you point out, Brian, voted for Trump in larger numbers. I think what's happening here is that, and it's not just limited to Queens in some ways, but we're seeing it more there. These Latino voters there, which are mostly Ecuadorian, Colombian, there's Mexican voters, it's a good mix, but largely Ecuadorian and Colombian, we're seeing economic concerns drive the day. I mean, Latinos are worried about their economic plight. They're worried about affordability and to be able to pay rent and the like. I think this is what's driving much of the voting behavior that we're seeing from certain Latino groups.

Brian Lehrer: You asked in that article point-blank, "How could Latinos vote for a democratic socialist after voting for a conservative authoritarian?" Based on your last answer, how much would it be fair to say Mamdani's mantra of affordability won the day because Trump's promise of taming the cost of living has not been fulfilled?

Eli Valentin: 100%. 100%. Interestingly enough, there is some overlap between the economic populism. Of course not-- When you dig down to it, there are stark differences, but at least a certain type of economic populism in a broader sense. When we speak about affordability, the lack of high-paying jobs, and that type of stuff, there is some overlap between the Trump message we saw in '24 and the Mamdani message in '25. I think that's the connecting link here between what we see in the November '24 election and the November '25 election. That is the driving force.

If it shows anything, it is showing that Latinos are clamoring for someone, something that can help alleviate their economic situation. I'll remind our listeners that Latinos remain on the lower tiers of the economic ladder. This is not just the case in New York, but it continues to be the case nationally. I say that, in November '24, as a result, we see that Latinos-- I don't call it so much a defection. Latinos did not necessarily defect as we see now here in New York in '25, but it was more of a repudiation of the Democratic administration at the time and the policies that they enacted that Latinos were not happy about.

Brian Lehrer: Biden policies. Which ones?

Eli Valentin: I think more broadly, it was more a sense that none of Biden's policy helped to turn around the economic situation. Part of this is driven by, of course, COVID-19 and the aftermath. Many Latinos did not see the, for instance, the inflation be reduced, and they attributed this to Biden policies, more broadly. When they went to the gas pumps. When they went to buy their bags of rice and the like, inflation was a big, big issue at the top of-- We saw all surveys that surveyed Latinos showing that inflation and affordability were the most important issues. I think that's what they reacted against at the ballot box.

Brian Lehrer: We're taking a deep dive into the Latino vote in New York. We'll get to New Jersey, which is similar but a little different, and nationally, too, with Eli Valentin, assistant dean of graduate studies at Virginia Union University's Graduate Center in Harlem. He's also a contributing writer for City Limits and a guest political analyst at Univision. Latino voters, call us and say if you have changed what party you have voted for in any election and why, or ask our guest, Eli Valentin, a question. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692.

I will say we've been looking for Trump/Mamdani voters ever since the election, and people are not calling in on that in particular. I guess it's still a small enough microcosm of a certain kind of voter that there aren't that many, even in our pretty big audience. If there are any Trump/Mamdani Latino voters listening and the statistics indicate you exist, or anybody else, Trump/Mamdani voters, or any Latino voters at all who want to say what this year meant to you, what last year meant to you, no matter how you voted, even if you voted consistently for one party or the other. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. You can call or you can text as we take a more granular look than we've taken before, and that a lot of people take with Eli Valentin from City Limits and Univision, and Virginia Union University's Graduate Center in Harlem. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692.

We're like 15 minutes into the segment, Eli, and you know what we haven't mentioned yet that many people might assume would be topic number one, the ICE raids and the mass deportation program. A listener texts, "Would Trump's deportation of immigrants and unofficial war against Venezuela have influenced the vote as well?" What can you tell us?

Eli Valentin: I think it will certainly have an influence in the '26 midterm elections. I think there were many Latino voters that were more favorable to Trump than they had been in the past that, I guess, in many ways, I would say bypassed some of the Trump's previous enforcement of immigration laws and the like. They bypassed it, thinking that Trump would not be as bad or as severe with his enforcement as he has been.

I believe that many have been taken by surprise, again, in terms of the ferocity of these enforcement tactics that we have seen. Again, I think that the driving force here was the economic populism that Trump espoused. Certainly, the enforcement tactics have been a huge disappointment, to put it lightly. Certainly, there's lots of fear. By the way, I would add here that the fear is not just with those that are undocumented, but the fear exists among Latinos that are citizens because we have seen that ICE officers have not-- I mean, they just essentially go into neighborhoods and pick out any Latino.

There's broad fear here. I think this will certainly be a factor in the '26 midterm elections. If there's one party that will be negatively impacted by this, it will be the Republican Party.

Brian Lehrer: Just to go back to 2024, again, given the strong minority of the Latino vote that went for Trump last year, close to half nationally and especially among Latino men, and we're going to get to that gender question, too. Did they not think he really meant it, that he would be raiding workplaces and deporting people in large numbers who do not have criminal records, or were they just willing to be in denial because the economic concerns were top of mind?

Eli Valentin: Yes, I think it's more of the former. There was a certain level of denial for sure, because, again, it was the economic issue, the economic condition, especially inflation, that was at the top of Latino mind. I do believe there was a certain level of denial about what could happen once Trump took office. Unfortunately, for many, they're seeing that the nightmare is no longer stuck at the subconscious, but it's very real. We can certainly ask our Latino sisters and brothers in Chicago and even here in parts of New York, and they can certainly attest to this.

Brian Lehrer: You know what happens sometimes on this show, Eli and everybody? There's a group that I'm looking for as callers or hoping for as callers, and we don't get them. Then I say, "Isn't there anybody out there who--" Then they start calling in. Here's our first Trump/Mamdani caller. Jacob in Manhattan, you're on WNYC. Hi, Jacob.

Jacob: Hi, can you hear me all right?

Brian Lehrer: Yes, we gotcha.

Jacob: Great. Yes, I would consider-- I've tried to come to terms with how exactly I ended up voting for both, but I think the thread is that it's just an anti-establishment approach. Knowing things that haven't been working for so long and seeing politicians get involved in scandal after scandal, with a lot of speculation as to just the moral quality of things. When it comes to ICE deportations, I think I'm not fully available to speak towards all Latinos, but there's definitely some aspect of if you migrated here legally, L-E-G-A-L-L-Y, that you want that effort to be respected. For those who came illegally, you feel like they're giving you a bad name.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. You told our screener you're part Mexican. Does that dynamic play for you?

Jacob: I would say no, primarily because I don't look Mexican, so I can't really talk too much from that regard. I do have respect for Mexican culture and Mexican people. I understand that the immigrants that I've talked to that voted for Trump are still, even with the ICE raids, are still firm in their position simply because they came here legally.

Brian Lehrer: Jacob, thanks for your call. I appreciate it. Let's go to a gender question, Eli. Listener writes, "Please ask your guest if sexism played a role in the Latino vote for Trump over Harris, making it easy for them to this time choose Mamdani because he's a man. I think the role of the economy," writes this listener, "is a smokescreen for the fact that Latino men could not see their way clear to vote for a woman and that the figure of the strong man resonates culturally in communities from Latin America."

I think a number of things there we should say from the outset would be overgeneralizations. Is there a portion of various Latino communities for whom you think that is accurate?

Eli Valentin: Oh, yes, certainly. There are certainly portions of the Latino community where this exists. There were exit polls and even some data analysis done post November 24th that shows Latino men voted in larger numbers for Donald Trump. I'm sure some of that is driving much of that support for Trump. That is certainly the case for many Latino men. There's a level of attraction with not just the economic populism, but even Donald Trump style. Does it speak to a favoritism, for lack of a better word, because of a certain machista? This machismo culture that has existed in many ways in Latino cultures?

Yes, I think there's some of that. Now, I will remind our listeners that most of Latino voters are women and that has been the case for quite some time. Are there Latinas that are voting for Trump? Sure, that's certainly the case as well. Study after study shows that Latino men support Trump more so than Latina women. Again, I will repeat this, that most of Latino voters are Latina women. The other thing I will remind our listeners about is that despite the fact that Trump did receive broader support among Latino groups, but we still have a majority of Latino voters across the country that is remaining faithful to Democratic candidates. We saw that in '24, as we did last week.

Brian Lehrer: Here's our second Trump/Mamdani voter. Alex in Queens, you're on WNYC. Hi, Alex.

Alex: Hey, how are you doing, Brian? Long listener for the show, first time calling.

Brian Lehrer: [unintelligible 00:22:23] Thank you for calling.

Alex: Yes, so get right to it. Trump with the order, that is humongous. I totally agree with that. His racism, I do not. However, Mamdani, with his policies for a better New York, affordable New York,/ I agree with that 100%. I'm a Black 60-year-old man.

Brian Lehrer: Did you just say, as a Black 60-year-old man, that you don't believe Donald Trump is racist or that when people call him racist, they're seeing something real? Did I understand you correctly?

Alex: No, you did not, Brian. This man is totally racist to me. Anyone who wants to shut down the African American Museum, which I just visited not too long ago when they had this shutdown, he wants to send people in there to actually see what's going on, what they're talking about, so he can shut it down. [unintelligible 00:23:38] Yes, this is what I'm understanding--

Brian Lehrer: Yet you were able to look past that. Something was more important to you than that racism in your vote last year for Trump?

Alex: Oh, no, no, no, I did not vote for him. I agree with my wife did vote for him, though. My wife voted for him-- [crosstak]

Brian Lehrer: I'm sorry, I misunderstood from my screener. I thought you were a Trump and Mamdani voter. Why did she? What did you have a conversation about at the dinner table?

Alex: She said she rather have someone racist right in her face rather than someone who's not in her face. In other words, "This is what I am, and I'm racist," and she voted for that.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, this is a classic critique of white liberalism, right? That--

Eli Valentin: I'm sorry.

Brian Lehrer: This is a classic Black critique among some Black people of white liberalism. They're not open about the racism that they may hold, either explicitly or implicitly. Some people would rather have that open racist to deal with. I guess that's where your wife was coming from. Alex, thank you so much for your call. We really appreciate it. We're going to go on to Anita in Queens. You're on WNYC. Hi, Anita.

Anita: Hi, Brian. Good morning. One thing that I think is very difficult for people to talk about-- I'm Puerto Rican, raised in New York. I say colonialism is the gift that keeps on giving. The aftermath of it. I think the racial divide that stoked between the Latino, the African American community, and others continues to be a factor in our community. I think some of the economics and stuff are, of course, legitimate, but I think it's also a smokescreen. It's a polite thing to say or acceptable thing to say compared to what's going on.

I have family members that voted for Trump. I don't understand it. I don't get it. They grew up in Spanish Harlem. They were poor, liberal, all of that. A lot of it is like trusting the system to the point or people that are connected or in or know something that a Black or Latino voter elected official would not have that part of it. For Mamdani, I know someone Latina who said, "Well, he's Arab and all of that." I'm like, "What?" It just doesn't make sense. It's something that I feel that continues to permeate the views of a lot of Latino voters.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. Not that it should matter, but he's not even Arab.

Anita: Exactly. Which was my point. Why does it matter, and he's not. You're not even basing your viewpoint on facts. It's problematic, and it continues to be problematic. That's inherent from the divide that colonists divided us intentionally to demean us and to keep us separated and be more powerful together.

Brian Lehrer: Anita, thank you very much for your call. Eli, the role of colonialism in American Latino voters' mindsets today, that's what Anita raises.

Eli Valentin: Yes, that's an excellent point from Anita, and there's certainly some truth to that, even if it's unconscious for many, but the reality is real, and it certainly plays a role. Anita mentioned she's Puerto Rican, as I am, and colonialism is-- I mean, I always remind folk, that Puerto Rico remains a colony, a US Colony at that, and there are things that result from the evil that is colonialism that plays itself out in many ways. Psychologically, emotionally, even at the subconscious level. It plays itself out even in voting behavior. One can not rule that out for many Latinos, not just Puerto Ricans, by the way.

Brian Lehrer: Anita's call implies-- she didn't quite say it like this, but it implies that there's also a religious-based suspicion of Mamdani among some people. Of course, the Latino community is overwhelmingly Christian. We have a caller explicitly on that who we're going to get to right after the break. I also want to do a little of the New York, New Jersey comparison with you, which is so interesting. Stay with us. Ernesto in Cortland, hold on. You're going to be the caller right after the break as we continue with Eli Valentine, right after this.

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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC as we continue for a few more minutes with Eli Valentin, assistant dean of graduate studies at Virginia Union University's Graduate Center in Harlem, contributing writer for City Limits, and a guest political analyst at Univision. As we take a deeper dive than we have before, than most people have the time to take on their shows into the Latino vote in this year's elections, New York, New Jersey, and nationally, what Eli called in an article for City Limits, a political earthquake even starting with the primary in New York in June. Ernesto in Cortland, you're on WNYC. Hey, Ernesto.

Ernesto: Hello. How are you? It's not the first time calling, and thank you for having me. I wanted to make a point, and it's something that I wonder why the media has not mentioned, which is the religious-- Well, that religious factor that I want to talk about, it's based basically in ignorance because as a Latino, I grew up very Catholic. God forbid you leave your religion. The end is you're going to hell. God forbid you're a bad person. The end is you're going to hell.

Pointing out that Latino-- the majority of Latinos here in the US fled their countries because they have no education, no opportunities, and no way to get ahead. They cling on to the religion. When Kamala started talking about abortion and I'm going to legalize abortion and abortion for this and women's rights, I knew deep in my heart that was no good because the Latino voter rather goes to hell than basically kill babies. It's their logic. They will hold on to the religion no matter what. In turn, if you really think about it, they are Zionists where they believe in the prophecy of the Bible, whether they're Catholics, whether they're evangelicals--

Brian Lehrer: Where all the Jews concentrate back in Israel, and then Jesus comes back and they all either convert or go to hell, basically. Right?

Ernesto: Yes, exactly. When Kamala started going on about all these rights that I agree with, knock on wood, thank God I was able to get out of El Salvador, come to Boston, a city that's very international, full of-- Every other person has a bachelor's degree. You learn to talk, you learn to have critical thinking. You're like, I believe in this book that I never read. Then you start reading the book, and you're like, "Oh, my God, this book is preposterous."

Brian Lehrer: Yes, you're talking about the Bible, I guess, in your take. Ernesto, if everything you say is true, how do you explain the big shift to Mamdani this year, who's Muslim and pro-choice?

Ernesto: Because we're all being persecuted now. I mean, it's obvious. They're like, "Oh, we're all being persecuted." I'm a resident. I came here legally. I was adopted by an American. I fear for my life. My license says Carlos. I look white. The moment that-- I've had this before, I look white. The moment the cop sees that it's Carlos, his entire demeanor, his entire perception of me changes. "Oh, you are not white." I actually had a cop stop me once years ago in Boston. I was on my bicycle. He stopped me, and I actually-- I'm working on a comedy bit about it which is called White Latino.

This cop pulled me over on a bike and then he goes over, he pulls my license, and in front of me goes up to the radio and goes, like, literally asking for directions. He's like, "I have a white Latino. I pulled over a white Latino." I got so angry. I'm like, "What the hell does that mean?" White Latino? Racism has no-- There is no foundation. There is no logic. There's no science is racism. At some point, I heard somebody talking about making it a mental disease. It is a mental disorder. It is something that you grow up with being intolerant and feeling less than others or having the need to feel more than others.

Brian Lehrer: Ernesto, I got to go, but I want you to call us back when you've developed this comedy routine a little more and rehearse some of it for our listeners. Would you do that?

Ernesto: Oh, totally. I've been working on it for a while. I reached out to you guys a bunch of times, and I can't seem to get anybody to give me a break a day. I've been writing a book since 2016, and these are things that we-- I don't know why media doesn't take in consideration, Latino are very plagued by religion.

Brian Lehrer: Ernesto, give my screener off the air your contact information. Okay. Thank you for that. One more on the religious track, though. Adriana in Jersey City, you're on WNYC. Hi, thank you for calling in.

Adriana: Hi, Brian. Love the show. I listen to you every morning.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you.

Adriana: My family immigrated here when I was 6. My mom won the citizenship lottery. I just want to start out by saying the journey of an immigrant is extremely difficult, and it requires a lot of perseverance because there's a lot of poverty attached to it. Having said that, I grew up extremely Catholic as well, and I see this in the voting patterns of my mom. My mom voted for Trump twice, and her big thing, like Ernesto said, is just that it's the abortion thing. They can't get over it. I feel like a lot of Americans don't understand this about Latin Americans, which is that the majority of them come from these small towns. They're extremely religious and they just have these conservative values that you will find in small-town USA.

It's a very similar mentality, which unfortunately, is then mixed in with this colorism and sexism, which complicates the situation even more. Where they want this affiliation to whiteness or they want this affiliation to being accepted by whiteness. Because even within our own countries, there are tiers of colorism where the whiter you are, the richer you are, the better off you are, and so on and so forth. There's this deficit within the community itself where it's like they want this affiliation to be accepted, and yet a lot of people don't seem to understand that you just will not be accepted because, unfortunately, if you do not look the part, you will not be one of them. It's just a matter of fact.

Now what we're seeing is, of course, tons of violence against the Latin community, which, I mean, breaks my heart. I see these videos and I cannot comprehend how anyone could still support this administration. It is horrific. Of course, now people are afraid because if you're brown and you just look like any indigenous, they're going to stop you and they're probably going to beat you up.

Brian Lehrer: The Supreme Court just said they're allowed to do it on the basis of who you appear to be racially. Adriana, I'm going to going to leave it there for time. Eli, you want to comment on either or both of those last two callers.

Eli Valentin: I will say something about the religion and how religion impacts Latino voting behavior. Unfortunately, I would say still underexplored. We must do more analyzing and dig into some of these voting behavior patterns among Latinos and how religion impacts that. I've attempted to do that in some articles I have written. I do want to say that religion does play a role for many Latinos, obviously not all, and age-- There's some age gaps here, even when it comes to the influence of religion, where we're seeing that younger Latino voters are less, especially in more nationalized or federal elections, are less impacted by religious ideology.

For those Latinos that are 55 and over, we still see that many are impacted by their religious philosophy, especially when it comes to national elections, especially presidential elections. We cannot discard that.

Brian Lehrer: Before you go, question about New Jersey. You wrote after the presidential election last year that Latinos in New York City still gave the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, a majority of their votes, "Contrary to what we have seen in some parts of the country and even across the river in New Jersey's Passaic and Hudson counties," you wrote that last December. This year, those counties went for Mikie Sherrill, how do you begin to explain that political earthquake, to use your phrase about New York, which looks on the surface to be even higher on the Richter scale than what happened last week in New York?

Eli Valentin: Yes, that is right. Especially, we look at Passaic County, where we saw probably the largest swing to Donald Trump in the November '24 election. There were many eyes-- Maybe not so many eyes, but there was certainly some eyes that were looking at how Passaic County Latino voters, how they would vote in the gubernatorial race last week. Yes, Brian, I guess political earthquake is the right phrase to use there because we saw a drastic shift from '24 to '25.

Now, interestingly enough, I will point this out. Carlos Odio from EQUIS Research has mentioned this, that what we saw last week, the results that we saw last week mirrors what we have seen in New Jersey, especially, Passaic County, and other areas that are Latino majority or plurality. We are seeing a, I would say, a reversion to the past. This is why I say, I think what we saw in '24 was not so much a clear-cut defection, it was more a repudiation because the patterns that we're seeing now in this race, we're seeing that Latinos are now voting the way they have voted over the past few decades.

The '25 election in Passaic, Latino majority precincts reflects what Murphy received, outgoing Governor Murphy, in 2021. Again, it's reverting more to what we have seen historically, which makes me believe that perhaps November '24 was an anomaly when we look at Latino voting patterns.

Brian Lehrer: We're going to close with one more story of a Trump/Mamdani voter, or Trump/Sherrill voter in this case, in the New Jersey context. Listener writes, "My nanny is originally from Guatemala. She is a naturalized citizen. She doesn't talk much politics at work. She and her husband voted for Trump largely because of religious reasons, from what I can gather, abortion restriction being the primary issue.

This year, she came to me the day after the election, excited about Sherrill winning. She asked if I voted. She told me that her 20-something daughter was very much urging her to make sure she voted and getting everyone in the family to vote for Sherrill because she was worried about immigration enforcement in New Jersey." That one text tells an interesting story about an individual, and I think says a lot about what happened last week.

We thank Eli Valentin, assistant dean of graduate studies at Virginia Union University's Graduate Center in Harlem, contributing writer for City Limits, and a guest political analyst at Univision. Keep coming on with us. Thank you very much for today.

Eli Valentin: Thanks so much for having me, Brian.

 

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