Title: How Preventable was the DC Air Crash?

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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning again, everyone. Now, we'll take a look at the state of aviation in our country as we mourn the 67 passengers killed in a collision between a passenger plane and a Black Hawk helicopter near Washington's Reagan National Airport last Wednesday and the crash of a medevac helicopter in Pennsylvania. The tragedy last week marks the end of a decades-long safety streak in air travel in the United States that was truly remarkable and shines new light on the troubles that have been flying under the radar within the Federal Aviation Administration.

As we know, rather than focusing on staff shortages, ill-advised increases in air traffic around Reagan National and numerous close calls that went unsolved, President Trump took to the podium to blame the FAA's diversity and inclusion hiring plan during his news conference last week. That statement came despite the fact that all pilots involved in the crash were white Americans. One was a woman. That was Captain Rebecca M Lobach, 28 year old from Durham, North Carolina, who her family tells or tells the media was in the top 20% of cadets nationwide.

We're going to try to look at what really happened there. Then in addition, over the weekend, the country saw another fatal plane crash, as I mentioned, this time in Philadelphia when a medical jet carrying six Mexican natives plummeted into a busy neighborhood. With two crashes in one week, many Americans are wondering how safe air travel is at this particular moment. Joining me now to parse through the facts that we know and explain how these tragic events could have been prevented is Oriana Pawlik, Politico's aviation reporter, and Jeff Wise, aviation journalist and host of the Finding MH370 podcast. Oriana and Jeff, thank you for coming on with us today.

Jeff Wise: Thanks for having us.

Oriana Pawlik: Thanks.

Brian Lehrer: Jeff, can you start us off by running through the timeline of events leading up to the DC crash? How did this accident actually happen according to what is known? I know a lot of the early focus has been put on the fact that there was only one air traffic controller on duty at the time when usually there are two.

Jeff Wise: That is true. The tower seems to have been slightly less staffed than is sometimes the case. I don't know if that necessarily played a factor in this particular accident. The basic outline of the of the situation was that this plane, a small jet, was inbound from Kansas. It was on a standard approach into runway one, which is a runway where you land to the north, and it was coming up the Potomac River. Everything went according to plan. Just before they were about to set up to land on runway one, they were asked if they could land on runway 33, which involves going off to the right and then swooping back in from the left. It's a shorter runway. It's a little bit more challenging from a skill perspective.

In this case, the wind was coming more from that direction. It was a little bit gusty. The pilot said, "Okay, I'll do that." They came in and they were set up on approach to runway 33. As they were coming in, they were coming over a standard helicopter route, which helicopters use going up and down the Potomac. This is super very high-security airspace. You're right near the seat of government and there's, of course, traffic landing at Reagan. They're supposed to keep in a very narrow, low-altitude corridor. They're supposed to stay below 200 feet. This Army Black Hawk Sikorsky helicopter was coming the other way. It left that corridor and got into the airspace that the plane was about to enter and they collided.

Brian Lehrer: Orianna, anything you want to add as we start to talk about the DC crash?

Oriana Pawlik: I think what Jeff summarized pretty well there is just the fact of the complexity. I mean, things were switching very, not very last minute, but it was this talk of does everyone have eyes on what they're doing, essentially. The runway has switched for the airplane and then the corridor had switched for the helicopter. Again, to go back to the air traffic control discussion, we also know that there were an adequate amount of staff, even though that control tower is still considered understaffed.

What had happened was that one controller was overseeing both the helicopter and the airline traffic at that time. That's usually a switch that happens at 9:30 or later at the tower. What happened that night was that they ended up switching to have one controller overseeing both well before 9:30 and a supervisor had made that last call. That's just an addendum to what Jeff had said there.

Brian Lehrer: Jeff, you had an article on this in New York Magazine and I think part of your take was it was the helicopter that was largely at fault. How much do you want to dig in on that?

Jeff Wise: The plane was coming in to land on this approach. It's very standard. I had likened it to being like a rail railway car on a track. It's coming in, it's doing its thing. Meanwhile, the plane is flying under visual flight rules. It's basically its job and it had accepted responsibility from the air traffic controller to keep an eye out for the plane, see the plane, avoid the plane. I think the latest information is two or three minutes before the collision, they had acknowledged that they had the plane in sight and they were going to steer clear of it. Why they didn't, we don't know. But because they had accepted responsibility to avoid the plane, it's their fault, basically.

Now, listen, I hasten to say that there's a lot we still don't know about this crash and we don't want to rush to conclusions or anything, but in this case, I think it's pretty clear cut. It got a little weird because [chuckles] Trump had this rambling press conference and he just really had this verbal diarrhea where he said all kinds of things about DEI. He also blamed the helicopter and a lot of other people who don't really like Trump, including Chris Hayes, got outraged on Blue Sky and was like, "How dare he say that this happen?" I also am not a fan of the orange guy, but he was, I think, correct in that one narrow regard.

Brian Lehrer: Orianna, anything to add to that?

Oriana Pawlik: I think that once again, the NTSB is going to be the determining factor here whether or not who was at fault. I had spoken with Senator Tammy Duckworth, who was a Black Hawk pilot herself, and she had talked about some of the innuendo surrounding this, whether or not the helicopter may be had increased its altitude and it shouldn't, which put it on a direct path with the aircraft. Then also Senator Ted Cruz the other day said that preliminary chats with the NTSB and FAA indicate that it's possible that the helicopter had, "a plane in sight," but we're not sure which plane they were actually saying that they had determined they had in sight.

It's very possible because the aircraft had switched to that runway 33, that they were looking at the wrong plane. Again, I think the NTSB again will be the determining authority to say for a fact whether or not it was the helicopter at fault. So many variables, so many different factors to be discussed.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, we can take a few questions at 212-433-WNYC for these two aviation reporters on the DC incident. We'll get to the Philadelphia incident briefly, but 212-433-9692. Also, on the larger systemic state of air safety in America as indicated by close calls that have gotten much less press than these actual incidents. 212-433-WNYC, call or text 212-433-9692. Jeff, is it even possible to say who on board the helicopter was doing what for people who do want to point those fingers?

Jeff Wise: We don't know why they did what they did and we might never know why they did what they did. Apparently, the helicopter did have a cockpit voice recorder. Hopefully, the conversation between the pilots will shed some light on what they were thinking or doing. As Orianna said, there's been a lot of speculation that maybe they were looking at a different plane and so that's why they didn't avoid the one that they ran into. It would be great if we got some clarity on that. In the meantime, that corridor has been shut.

Brian Lehrer: Orianna, let's pull out to the bigger picture. Can you recount some recent incidents or the big picture of near misses in your reporting that spoke to the troubles bubbling below the public's purview? How common have close calls been in recent years? Because I think the top line of this story is flying is remarkably safe in the United States in general. As one of your articles, I think, put it, broke the years-long safety streak without any commercial airliner of any size having an incident.

Oriana Pawlik: Right, exactly. Let's unpack some of that. 2023 actually had seen a staggering number of near collisions at airports. Those are the types of things where planes could be running into one another at commercial for commercial operations all across the US or running into a vehicle, let's say. In 2023, there had been a whopping 11 of those near collisions on US airport runways. That brought the concern to the FAA at a totally heightened level because then people were saying, "What's going on?" This is a number we haven't seen at least in at least seven years I believe was the statistic.

It was after one of the incidents in the Austin airport where a FedEx plane came 100 feet within a Southwest plane over fog concerns. The air traffic controller didn't catch it and that could have been a near catastrophic event. Right after that incident in early February in 2023, the NTSB and the FAA held a safety stand down to talk with pilots and the general aviation community about what to do next. They went to this "back to basics" approach of keep visual, keep in contact, keep heightened communications, and see what we really need to reduce distractions in order for these things not to happen.

Then looking to 2024, if you look through the FAA's database, the near collisions had been diminished down to one that had involved at least one passenger plane. Clearly, some things that were discussed ended up working. I've spoken with former FAA administrators about this that it really just needed to be that wake-up call for folks to talk about. Obviously, what happened at the DC airport is a little bit different because this was a mid-air collision. Again, as Jeff is saying, as I was saying, this is one of the most complex airspaces in the US, essentially, because of the amount of traffic, the amount of just scrutiny that the FAA has the permission that you need to fly. You can't even fly drones in this airspace because of how strict it is. Clearly, it is one of those things where they had this discussion and they had to talk about what to do next.

Brian Lehrer: Couple of texts that are coming in. One listener writes, "Is someone considering the increase in wind speed in the area as helicopters are more complicated to handle in windy conditions?" Someone else writes, "That the Black Hawk altimeter is very tricky to calibrate, according to an experienced copter pilot. Could there have been an inaccurate altitude reading?" Jeff, you want to take those?

Jeff Wise: As for the winds, I don't think there is a reason to believe that winds are stronger in Washington DC lately. In any case, in this particular incident, they were gusty but not crazy like hurricane-force winds or anything. I don't think winds are a factor here. As for the altimeter, it is very interesting that there's now reporting that the altitude reading that the air traffic controllers were seeing was different and less than what the helicopter was actually at. That is really intriguing. That could definitely be something that we need to look at. If the helicopter pilot, due to mechanical failure of the altimeter, had an incorrect idea about what their altitude was, that could certainly play a role.

Brian Lehrer: Another listener texts this question, "It was first reported that the Black Hawk was on a training mission. Any confirmation on that?" The listener asks. Orianna, do you know?

Oriana Pawlik: Training around the DC area is absolutely routine. I mean, it's not just for the Army. The airspace for helicopters is also used for, the Air Force uses it, the Coast Guard uses it, medical helicopters use it, news helicopters, and law enforcement. A lot of what happens for helicopters is they go out to keep proficiency for their pilots to make sure that they are up to snuff and up to the standards that they need in order to keep flying.

It was a training flight, but that wasn't anything out of the ordinary because training happens every single day. Again, for the Army, what their basic mission is, is that they do fly a lot of their generals and staff around. But that particular evening, that was just for the pilots to stay proficient in what they do every single day.

Brian Lehrer: Is it clear who was training who or were they all training each other in the context of what you just said about staying proficient? What can you say about the role of Captain Lobach since there are people who want to point at her?

Oriana Pawlik: I think it would be, again, standard to say that they were all training. They all had to have different roles within the cockpit. That's why there were three individuals there. Again, what may have been unique about it, I think the Army has yet to say whether or not somebody was training somebody or if somebody needed more hours or anything like that. That has yet to be determined of what they were doing exactly out there. When it comes to the woman pilot, they were all proficient. They all had hundreds of hours. They were skilled in their duty and they were skilled in what they did every day. The Army has said as much and I don't think that they were necessarily pushing back the claims that have been made there. It's just these were professional soldiers. They were doing their job.

Brian Lehrer: Jeff, when Trump talked about diversity, equity, and inclusion as an alleged contributor to this crash, he also listed a number of disabilities targeted for hire as air traffic controllers. Is there any light you can shed on that or fact-check an assumption that may have been based on absolutely nothing that came out of the president's mouth?

Jeff Wise: Right. To a man with a hammer, everything is a nail and he's on this crusade to eliminate woke and DEI and basically make racism great again. He hates all of these [chuckles] things like he doesn't like Black people, he doesn't like women having equality, and he doesn't like people with disabilities. Of course, all that was completely--

Brian Lehrer: He would, of course, loudly disagree with that blanket assertion, but go ahead.

Jeff Wise: I hate to be controversial, but no, I think that what he said was not relevant at all to the actual crash. It was just tub-thumping on his part.

Brian Lehrer: Orianna, you report that congressional dysfunction is also a leading factor in the uptick of aircraft near misses in recent years. What role has what you call reoccurring gridlock played in degrading safety?

Oriana Pawlik: Absolutely. When we talk about government shutdowns, which seem to be the norm these days, when you talk about budget season, it's very unlikely that we just get budgets for an entire calendar and just given year from Congress because there is that gridlock. The problem is, is that when you have continuing resolutions that only give a stopgap measure for three to six months every time, you're allocating only a certain amount of funding. Once that deadline comes up again where Congress has to say, "Are we going to pass a budget?" Then again, they don't. What happens is that everyone stops doing the job that they're allowed to do. The funding has halted.

When it comes to that, for air traffic controllers, they're a safety in a public safety element so their job doesn't stop, but they do get furloughed. All training of new hires stops as well because training isn't deemed necessarily essential during a government shutdown. All those trainees are sitting there twiddling their thumbs going, "When am I going to get back to work? When am I going to learn the critical skills that I need to be that air traffic controller and fill a gap in a control tower somewhere where it's understaffed?"

That is a huge amount of pressure that the agency faces, that being the FAA, but as well as the air traffic controller union, who just has looked for the stability and an action plan for years trying to get those numbers back up.

Brian Lehrer: Jeff, just briefly, on the other fatal plane crash in Philadelphia, I think I said medevac helicopter at the beginning. I would need to correct that because there was a medical jet carrying six people. It plummeted into a busy neighborhood. Do they have clarity on that?

Jeff Wise: They don't have clarity on it. I did an article for New York Magazine about some of the possible causes that would make a plane suddenly just plunge at high speed right into the ground. It had taken off from Northeast Philadelphia airport, climbed into a cloud layer, and while it was in what we call instrument meteorological conditions, AKA in the clouds, it's turned and instead of climbing, it started to dive into the ground and was fully laden with fuel, was carrying oxygen tanks, just created this huge fireball. One person on the ground was killed. It's a miracle that more weren't killed, actually.

Brian Lehrer: Orianna, do we blame the Biden administration? Somebody's texting blame Mayor Pete, Pete Buttigieg, who is the transportation secretary under Biden. Do we blame the Biden administration? You mentioned Congress. That would be a bipartisan blame for allowing things to get where they've gotten. Is there any response from the administration so far, the new administration, about what systemic steps they plan to take?

Oriana Pawlik: If we're going to go back to the systemic steps, I think air traffic controller hiring actually saw a boost under the Biden administration. Pete Buttigieg was in front of Congress advocating for more controllers to be hired on an annual basis and do maximum hiring at their FAA academy because the attrition rate or the washout rate for folks going through ATC school is just so incredibly high. They increase that number from 1,400 to 1,800 and I believe next year they have funding as well to get that number up to at least 2,000, which is a big step for getting hiring in there. That's talking about the systemic.

The one thing I will say is that under the Biden administration, there wasn't much continuity when it comes to an FAA administrator. That was something that people criticized because There was no FAA administrator for 18 months. The former FAA administrator, Steve Dixon, who was under Trump, had left. 18 months had gone by as they tried to nominate an individual that ended up [chuckles] not being the FAA administrator. That was Denver CEO Phil Washington. Then they were looking hastily to get somebody in there. It wasn't until October 2023 that Mike Whitaker took the job. Now, with the new administration, he has left.

I think that if anything, stable leadership as well as stable funding is something that you hear constantly from the agency as well as the people who work for it and the people who are supportive of it. That's one thing that I would say that if there's somewhere to talk about the criticism, I think that a lot of people just want that stability back.

Brian Lehrer: Any indication, Jeff, that they're going to move in that direction rather than point fingers at DEI without evidence?

Jeff Wise: Unfortunately, safety is really boring. It requires lots of hard work. It requires being meticulous and dotting your I's and crossing your T's. If you do all that work, what you get is nothing. Nothing happens and it's easy to get complacent when you have 16 years go by without a fatal accident by an airliner. You think, "Why do we even have to worry about it? Why do we have to take all the time?" It's why not be entertained? Why not say funny things? We really have to realize that we need to have grownups running the system.

Brian Lehrer: Why carry an umbrella if the last time it rained, it already kept me dry?

Jeff Wise: Exactly.

Brian Lehrer: Jeff Wise, aviation journalist and host of the Finding MH370 podcast. He's been writing about these incidents for New York Magazine. Orianna Pawlik, Politico's aviation reporter. If you're interested, you can see more of her and her colleagues' work on their newsletter, Politico Playbook. It's one of my daily reads. It's politico.com/playbook. Thank you, both, very much for joining us.

Jeff Wise: Thanks for having me.

Oriana Pawlik: Thank you.

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