Title: How President Trump and His Tariffs Are Affecting NYC Tourism

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Matt Katz: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Welcome back, everybody. I'm Matt Katz, a former reporter here at WNYC. Now we're going to check in with my former colleague, longtime WNYC reporter Arun Venugopal, to talk about how all of the policies, some of which we've just been talking about, and how all of the rhetoric coming out of the White House, not just tariffs, but talks of deportations and threats of annexing other countries, et cetera, how that's affecting tourism here in the city. Arun had a story last week that was headlined on Gothamist, "Trump tariffs, Tiffs Tied to NYC Tourism Drop Are 'Catastrophically' Affecting Business." Hey, Arun, thanks for making the time.

Arun Venugopal: Hey, Matt, thanks for having me.

Matt Katz: Arun, what are the numbers here? How much of a hit has tourism taken?

Arun Venugopal: Well, this is a moving target, Matt, but just recently, NYC Tourism and Company, which is the main monitor for all of this, just kind of revised its projections from New York City downward. Prior to these new projections, they figured that about 67 million people total would come to New York City in the coming year. After these revised estimates, they figured that's going to drop by about 3 million. A million of those are domestic tourists. Before, they were expecting domestic tourism to grow. Now they're expecting that to drop, but the real hit is with international tourists.

Now, international tourists make up a smaller fraction of the overall tourism business in this city, but they matter in big ways, which we can get to, but they revised it downward from like 14 million people coming from abroad to New York City down to 12 million, so a pretty significant-- about 14%, 15% drop. That's what this main tourism body expects to happen in the coming year. That's got a lot of people worried. Now we're already seeing that happen across the board with a number of countries.

Matt Katz: Wow. I'm curious find out what those countries are and what the specific reasons may be, but I just wanted to zoom out for a second, we know tourism is massive in New York, but how big of a part of the overall economy is it? Is it like-- It's one of the biggest industries in the city, right?

Arun Venugopal: Yes, we're talking about tens of billions of dollars. Some of that's going to be indirect. We're talking about things like Broadway, which relies on international tourists. We're talking about hospitality, hotels, catering, but so many other businesses, a lot of the people who are probably listening to us right now who own businesses say, that person who makes T-shirts or a jewelry manufacturer or a baker whose video on Instagram just went viral and who relies on those people who show up in New York City and say, like, "Oh, I want to go to that place." Those kinds of restaurants are in many neighborhoods.

I have restaurants right here in my neighborhood in Queens, where I know people who come from abroad who are like, "I saw about that restaurant, so I want to go there now." A lot of that is also connected to perceptions on social media and in the media, which we churn out of the city. Right now, a lot of people are very sensitive to that. This is a moving target. Those projections I just mentioned, they could be revised further upward, but also definitely further downward depending on policies coming out of the Trump administration and rhetoric and the images of what people see happening in this city.

Matt Katz: Listeners, do you work in the tourism industry? Do you sell maybe those T-shirts? Do you work at that bakery? Do you have some personal experience with how tourists from abroad maybe are starting to avoid trips to New York City? As Brian always says, "Help us report out the story." The number is 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. You can call or you can text. All right, Arun, which countries are tourists coming from at lower numbers than before? Then why those specific countries?

Arun Venugopal: I looked at the numbers from the top 25 or so sending countries, if you will. This is according to NYC Tourism and Company, their projections and what we've seen in the past, we saw in the last few years, emerging from the pandemic, a huge growth in tourism worldwide. Everybody was just like, you know, was throwing off the shackles, the pandemic, really wanted to go wherever they could, and we really benefited from that. Now we're releasing revisions to that. The countries where we're seeing market sort of decline in the projections are really some of the top sending countries.

If you look at just the top 10 countries, the UK, which is the number one supplier of tourists to New York City, they're projected to send 5% fewer; Germany, 10% fewer; China, nearly 9%. The big story here really, though, is what a lot of people have already heard, though, is Canada, which is sending-- Canada is a number two sending country. They're expected to send 20% fewer tourists across the border to New York City. That's really going to affect our local economy in so many ways. We're not just talking about people who fly in, people who take the bus across the border, student groups and whatnot. That's going to be really a sharp decline.

Of course, that's impacted by all the tough talk about Canada, the tariffs that the Trump administration has set there is as high as 35%, the possibility of annexing, turning Canada into our 51st state. A lot of that has really kept Canadians away. There's a lot of rage amongst Canadians, and a lot of businesses here who directly depend on those numbers are going to really be impacted by that. There are some countries on the other hand, Matt, which are expected to send more people here, and that really tops out with Australia, which is expected to send about 8% more.

The other countries, we're talking just about 6 in the top 25 which are expected to bump up. That includes some small bumps for places like Brazil and India, but India, I want to highlight, it's important to note that this could really be impacted. A lot of people that are listening right now might have noticed that there's a lot of talk right now from the Trump administration which just announced 50% tariffs against India, so we could see those numbers, which is just-- we see 1% growth from tourists from India get revised downward because there's a lot of people who are talking about boycotts against American companies, perhaps might be boycotting travel as well.

Matt Katz: Wow. It's interesting that it's the economic factors, but also just the rhetoric, right? Canadians are necessarily not coming down to New York for their summer break because of any sort of economic reasons. It's that they resent the guy in the White House.

Arun Venugopal: I think a lot of it is there. What you hear from people is that they can distinguish between a population, people, New Yorkers, for instance, and federal policy and people at the very top. Yet still, people, I think-- We're talking about basic issues of dignity, "Are you going to be stopped at the border? Are you going to be questioned, hassled?" It's not just Canadians. We're talking about people from other parts of the world as well.

The person who runs the Hotel Association of New York City, the lobbying group, his name is Vijay Dandapani. He said, "There are a certain number of countries which are on the so-called travel ban list. Most of those are Muslim countries, so it's often referred to as a Muslim ban, but it's not just those countries" he said "which are going to be affected. People who are coming from other countries which have a lot of Muslims which may feel like, 'What's going to happen if I go there? Am I going to be taken in for questioning for an hour or two? Are they going to take my phone from me?'"

All the things that a lot of Americans themselves are talking about when they return to this country, they certainly affect people coming who are not US nationals in big ways, so they might just decide, "Well, instead of going to the US, why don't I go to whatever, Europe or Dubai or Singapore?" for instance.

Matt Katz: Then, some countries actually have travel advisories regarding traveling to the United States, like some people in their-- their governments are warning them against traveling to the US.

Arun Venugopal: Absolutely, and that includes Canada. It includes a number of Western, European countries as well who've issued these travel advisories in ways that might be kind of, I guess, unsettling or surprising for those of us who think of this similarity between Western, Europe, and ourselves, and now we're seen as the kind of country, that we might issue travel advisories against around the world, think of as dangerous countries.

Matt Katz: Right.

Arun Venugopal: Now the optics of its country are really, they are shifting in real time, Matt.

Matt Katz: What are the advisories that other countries are issuing saying? Is it that you might have trouble at the border, your visas might be scrutinized? What are they saying?

Arun Venugopal: Some of it has to do with all of that, like the executive orders issued by the Trump administration in recent months talking about perhaps ostensibly illegal immigration, but definitely making people think it's not just about that. Also, Matt, we're talking about things like transgender identification, policies on the part of the US to recognize two sexes, male and female. For some people, they come from countries where they have more relaxed or liberal policies in that regard, so concerns in that way. Yes, we're talking about Canada, the UK, Germany, a lot of countries, where they're just changing their plans.

Matt Katz: Let's go to the phone lines. Elizabeth in Ridgewood. Hi, Elizabeth. I understand that you're in a business that deals with tourists.

Elizabeth: Yes. Hi.

Matt Katz: Hi.

Elizabeth: I sell vintage clothing at the Grand Bazaar on the Upper West Side and also in SoHo at the St. Anthony's Market. The flea markets rely heavily on tourists. Normally in August especially, there are lots of European tourists and Asian tourists. We've all noticed so far that that's been dwindling and it's affected my business, and I know other vendors as well, yes, even-- [crosstalk] Sorry.

Matt Katz: Those tourists, are they international, are they domestic that you normally draw from?

Elizabeth: Typically, there are a lot of European and Asian tourists as well as a lot of domestic tourists, but I've noticed a big decrease in the number of Europeans and Asians this year. It has affected my business. They're about, I would say, at least a quarter of the percentage of buyers, so it's changed, yes.

Matt Katz: I never realized flea markets drew tourists like that. That's interesting.

Elizabeth: Yes.

Matt Katz: Thanks, Elizabeth. I wish you the best. I hope things pick up. John in Riverdale. Hi, John. I understand you're a tour guide?

John: Yes. Thanks for taking my call. Yes, I work as an independent tour guide in New York City, licensed tour guide, and also I'm a member of our local trade organization called the Guides Association of New York City. There's definitely, from my end, I've seen a downturn in tour bookings. I rely on bookings from clients to be able to get work. I mostly work for-- like I'm a gig worker essentially, like a lot of people in my field. What's happening is tour operators that I work for are getting less business.

Because I work as a gig worker and I work for a large number of companies, it's kind of hard to necessarily pinpoint it to a specific thing. It could be that there's just broad economic trends, of course, but it's just so clear that there's a downturn in international business, and this is confirmed with reporting on that issue. In particular, business from Canada, that has so clearly been-- Just the rhetoric that we're getting is just so clearly offensive to-- and understandably affecting it. That's where I stand on the issue.

Matt Katz: John, let me ask you a question.

John: Yes.

Matt Katz: Because you're interfacing with tourists all the time, are you hearing from them that they were reluctant to come, their friends or family were reluctant to come? What are you hearing from them? [crosstalk]

John: Well, you don't hear as many because, of course, they don't come-- There's such a strict rule in tourism to not talk about politics, just for obvious reasons.

Matt Katz: Got it. Right. Sure.

John: It's just kind of ethos. In some cases, you're forbidden from talking about it by certain companies. I wish I could speak more about that, but there's also just the fact that I haven't had those customers as much, so there's not as much to say about them.

Matt Katz: Totally.

John: Yes, that's a good question, though.

Matt Katz: Out of curiosity, John, what's your favorite tour to give in New York?

John: Well, oh, that's always-- They're not the ones I always give. I actually happen to be a huge fan of giving tours of our local cemeteries and particularly Green-Wood Cemetery, but I don't do that as much as I wish I could.

Matt Katz: Oh. Thank you very much for calling, John, and wish you the best. Arun, it's interesting that it's not just international tourism that's down, it's also domestic tourism, like why aren't people from Oklahoma coming to New York as much? What's going on there?

Arun Venugopal: Well, I don't know the exact answer to that, but definitely, yes, you're seeing that happen. I think what I understand of that is that people are, all around, feeling a sense of economic uncertainty. Inflation has been a problem for a few years now, but now there is added concern about where the markets are going, where overall economic stability is going. For that reason, people who might have perhaps thought of taking an international trip six months ago may be downgrading that to something a little more modest, a little more local, and perhaps people who were thinking of something more local or regional, thinking of something a little more modest.

On top of that, I think there's a real domino effect because there's just so much uncertainty all around. Yes, in New York City, even a few months ago, we were expecting, as I mentioned earlier, an uptick in domestic even with some amount of drop in the international, but now, domestic is also expected to take a hit of about a million fewer tourists this year. We're feeling it.

Matt Katz: Wow. Then, what other industries are affected by this beyond the obvious? You talked about little restaurants or bakeries. We heard from a tour guide. Obviously, hotels. Do people in the industry talk about just sort of the trickle-down effect? I mean, it goes to the guys selling souvenirs around Midtown or selling Yankees hats,-

Arun Venugopal: Sure.

Matt Katz: -but then they're going back to their neighborhoods in the Bronx or Queens, and they're spending the money that they make-- the trickle-down effect [crosstalk].

Arun Venugopal: As John just mentioned, he's talking about Green-Wood Cemetery. Think of all those people who are like, "Oh, this is my second trip, and this time, I want to go to Flushing or Jackson Heights."

Matt Katz: Right.

Arun Venugopal: You want to do something a little beyond the norm. Perhaps you're a regular visitor. You've come here three or four times in the last 20 years. There's all these experiences you've read about and seen in the movies, in social media, and you want to try something beyond the Statue of Liberty or Ellis Island or the Metropolitan Museum. Let's take one example, the Tenement Museum, they told me that they are actually set to grow this year, but that is from domestic tourism.

Internationally, they have seen a drop in foreign tourists, and that accounts for about 12% of the museum's attendance. Not an insignificant amount, but these are countries, again, Western, European countries like Canada, the UK, Australia. Collectively, that's declined by about 20% over just the last six months, Matt.

Matt Katz: Wow.

Arun Venugopal: People are making decisions fairly fast in terms of where they want to go and where they don't want to go. Some of our primary tourist draws in the heart of the city are feeling it.

Matt Katz: Let's go to Charlotte in Jersey City. Hi, Charlotte. Appreciate you calling in. Hello?

Charlotte: Hi. It's Charlotte. I run a very small Airbnb here in Jersey City, pretty close to Manhattan. I get a lot of traffic. I'm pretty much booked all year [unintelligible 00:18:05]. Two things that happened. One, the only person who canceled on me was right around the time when the National Guard was in Los Angeles, and she said, "Your cities are too dangerous." She was coming from France, I think, and nobody else has canceled. I'm booked up through August in 2026.

Matt Katz: Wow.

Charlotte: It's mostly Europe, a Dominican Republican person just booked yesterday. It's really interesting because other than that one person, because of that one incident, she said, "Your cities are too dangerous," that's it. I'm doing fine. I'm cheap. Maybe that's part of it.

Matt Katz: That's great.

Arun Venugopal: I'm sorry. You said you're cheap, Charlotte?

Charlotte: It's just a bedroom and a bathroom. I don't have a full apartment.

Arun Venugopal: Oh, okay. That's interesting.

Charlotte: But I've been doing fine, nothing bad.

Arun Venugopal: That's great.

Matt Katz: I imagine everybody who's staying in your Airbnb is here to visit New York City?

Charlotte: Oh, absolutely. I barely have to sweep. They just come, they sleep, they head out. I usually chat with all of them. I like to greet them in person. They come back, they tell me about how great Governors Island was, or I'll turn them on to doing something else. Very occasionally do they say something like, "Gee, it was so great, and people were warning me...," but that's as far as the conversation tends to go. I got to say, it's nothing--, and a lot of families, as I say. They're bringing their little kids. They're not thinking it's that scary.

Matt Katz: Thanks very much, Charlotte. Glad to hear it.

Arun Venugopal: Matt, it's interesting because this in some ways counters the trend that I've been hearing about from the industry, the hotel industry, which said, it is generally speaking middle- and lower-budget hotels who are feeling the effects right now of this overall issue. Higher-budget hotels, not so much, because rich people are doing okay. Charlotte seems to be doing something right.

Matt Katz: And the Airbnb factor might be part of it.

Arun Venugopal: Could be.

Matt Katz: You're talking to the hotel industry, right?

Arun Venugopal: That's true.

Matt Katz: But they're not seeing these bookings or the bookings on the outskirts of the city, like Jersey City.

Arun Venugopal: Yes, and of course, if you have a family, as you do, as I do, you're kind of like, "Oh, I prefer to stay in a place with two bedrooms rather than just one hotel room," so all the obvious advantages of an Airbnb, which perhaps in some ways it's hard to say from one instance like Charlotte's, but it could be differences right there.

Matt Katz: Arun, thanks very much. My guest has been WNYC and Gothamist reporter Arun Venugopal. Arun, great to hear your voice. Love chatting with you.

Arun Venugopal: Great to be here, Matt. Thanks.

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