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Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. Happy to have Errol Louis back with us, political anchor for Spectrum News New York 1, host of their podcast, You Decide, and a New York magazine columnist. We'll talk mostly about the crucial races for Congress in the New York City suburbs, on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley, and the one in New Jersey between Tom Kean Jr. and Democrat Sue Altman. As you know, control of Congress, maybe weirdly, in historical terms, runs through the New York area this year.

This week, Errol moderated a debate between two candidates in the Hudson Valley district New York 18, that's Newburgh, Kingston, Poughkeepsie, Middletown, New Paltz, all around there, very much a swing district. Freshman Democrat Pat Ryan is the incumbent, running against Republican Alison Esposito. Errol also has a New York magazine column that just came out urging Democrats not to panic about the state of the Harris campaign. Some, per media reports, are.

One theme we'll discuss on the congressional races, candidates from both parties seem to largely be running toward the middle as fast as they can, but where is the middle and what positions are they holding onto that actually make them different from the other candidate and different from the other party? Errol, always great to have you. Welcome back to WNYC.

Errol Louis: Great to be with you, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, we're going to invite you in right at the top here to help us report this story. Crucial local Republican versus Democrat congressional districts. Why do you think your area of Long Island or the Hudson Valley or in the Tom Kean/Sue Altman race in Jersey is a swing district? 212-433-WNYC. Do you know anyone who's undecided? If so, what do you think they're looking for in the Democratic or Republican candidate? Of course, if you yourself are undecided, but there aren't that many of you, we realize, you, of course, are welcome to call in, 212-433-9692.

Again, why do you think your area of Long Island or the Hudson Valley or the one competitive seat in Jersey is a congressional swing district? Do you know anyone who's undecided? If so, what do you think they're looking for in the Democratic or Republican candidate to get them to yes with anybody? Or if this is you as an undecided voter, obviously, reveal your own process to the extent that you would like. 212-433-9692.

One group of you who might want to call in. We get calls sometimes from people who are canvassing for one candidate or another, usually for presidential candidates, but making phone calls or going door to door. If you are canvassing for a congressional candidate in a swing district on Long Island or in the Hudson Valley or in Jersey, what's your sense of what's going to decide this race from talking to undecided voters there? What surprises you as you knock on doors or ask people questions on the phone? What illuminates you that could illuminate our listeners? Or, of course, if you're an undecided voter yourself. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692, call or text.

Errol, while people are calling in on the congressional races, want to start with your New York magazine column on Democrats panicking over the Harris campaign? Who's panicking as you see it, and why?

Errol Louis: Oh, yes. Listen, there are a lot of people, and I'm sure that it includes a lot of your listeners, Brian, who obsessively follow this stuff. They get caught in this loop, this doom loop, where every half-point change in the national polls, things that are really irrelevant to the final outcome, or they might be of mild interest to super nerds, but when the casual viewer or listener gets obsessed with these things and just assumes that, "Oh, my God, Trump is up by half a point in Arizona, that means he's going to win the electoral college and he'll be back in the White House."

There's this cascade of conclusions based on really thin and ambiguous data. I just felt like writing something to tell people, like, "Look, try to look at the big picture. First of all, what really matters is what you do." Even if you sent $5 or $25 to the candidate of your choice, you'll be doing a lot more good than obsessing over this stuff. Then secondly, if you call your friends, classmates, co-workers, relatives who happen to be in swing states, you'll also be maybe making a difference. The one thing that doesn't help is to listen to all of the ups and downs of these pundits.

I've been doing this for a long time. So have you, Brian. The reality is somebody's got to fill that hour at MSNBC or CNN or Fox, and they're going to just talk and talk and talk and talk, and you can get really spun around. Wanted to give people a view of the larger picture. Of course, I included my interview, my latest interview with Allan Lichtman, who's one of my favorites when it comes to this, because he's got this 13 point system that he says predicts every presidential election going back to 1860, and he's looking at nothing but the big picture and completely disregards the polls.

Brian Lehrer: He seems to think this panic is unfounded on the Democratic side, and Harris is pretty likely to win, right?

Errol Louis: Yes. His general theory, which I think is interesting and probably right, is that every presidential election is basically an up or down vote on the party in power. If the party in power has not too badly screwed up on various measures of economic performance of the economy, as well as foreign policy and domestic policy achievements, then they will be returned to power. If they have, on the other hand, completely screwed up in a critical number of areas, then they will be thrown out of power.

Using that logic, if you look at what's happened over the last four years, think about where we were four years ago in October of 2020, before the vaccination campaign, before the Inflation Reduction Act, before the economy started to revive. We were completely in lockdown on and on and on and on. You line up the indicators and then you say, "Well, they haven't done such a bad job that we should expect a mob of people with pitchforks to throw them out of the White House."

Brian Lehrer: I guess, except another way to look at it is these have been really tough for years. Whether Biden and Harris are responsible for the problems or not, prices are a lot higher than they used to be. The Middle East is a mess. Crime, accurately perceived or not, is a lot higher than when Trump left office and Biden came in. So much of this can just be laid at the feet of the pandemic, all these domestic issues. The mood of the country is not optimistic. Right?

Errol Louis: Voters are always cranky when the pollsters call. There's never-- I don't remember any poll where crime wasn't listed as one of the top concerns. Whether it's up, down, or sideways, people are concerned about it, which only makes sense. I tend to think, and I know I'm an outlier on this, but I think there are objective reasons to think that the economy is actually doing better than the way the media is portraying it. By that, I mean people focus and fasten on almost obsessively this one number of consumer goods, inflation.

It doesn't matter how many times you tell them that the average rate of increase in people's salaries exceeds the inflation rate. It doesn't matter. They just say, "Well, eggs cost too much, and that's the only thing that matters." I just don't think it's true. There are other things. There's something called the wealth effect, Brian. I think you probably have reported on it over the years, where if you look at your 401-K, and 60 to 70% of Americans have some retirement savings.

If you look at it and you see that the stock market has hit record highs at least 40 times this year alone, and suddenly you're $30,000 or $40,000 or $50,000 wealthier, the economists will tell you people tend to think a little bit differently about their spending decisions, whether they take an extra weekend of vacation or whether they buy another car and so forth and so on. All of that is just invisible. People just focus on, gee, meat costs more at the store and people are going to base decisions about who should run the free world on that one number. I just don't buy it. I don't think it's that simple.

Brian Lehrer: One more thing on this before we go on to the swing districts for Congress. Part of the concern I see expressed in these Democrats or concerned articles is that Harris isn't doing enough to reach out to the undecided, Latino voters in particular, Black men in particular, and young voters of all backgrounds. Do you have a take on that one way or another?

Errol Louis: I have a hard time with that one, too, to be honest with you. Look, strategically, there are only two things you can do in the closing 30 days of a national campaign. Either you find people who you think are inclined to like you but might not be prepared to vote, and you try to motivate them to vote, or you find people who definitely vote, people like me, prime voters, who go out every single time and try and make sure that they vote for you. She's got a combination of those strategies and state by state, district by district, they're trying to piece it together.

If the Harris campaign has decided that in Georgia, for example, they're better off, let's say, going after suburban women and sending messaging to them around abortion rights, as opposed to going into, I don't know, barber shops in Atlanta and trying to get Black men to turn out at a higher rate, I'm not going to second guess that. The pundits who think that they've got the key to the whole thing and that, "Oh, the Harris campaign is screwing up." Okay, fine, let's put it to a vote, which we will do in 30 days, and then we'll see who is right.

Brian Lehrer: Just on your source, Lichtman, who you said predicted so many. I think your article said he predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections correctly based on the factors that he looks at. Which one did he get wrong? Do you know?

Errol Louis: 2000. The famous one where it came down to fewer than 600 votes in Florida. He thought Al Gore and the Democratic Party in that case had done a good enough job that according to his indicators, they should have been returned to power.

Brian Lehrer: Oh, yes. That really goes against the theory. To this day we say party like it was 1999. For the better times that there were then compared to now, and yet the vice presidential candidate of the president who was in office with him did not prevail that year. All right. My guest is Errol Louis, political anchor for New York 1 on Spectrum News and a New York magazine columnist. Again, listeners, we'll get to your calls and texts in a couple of minutes. Call us if you live in one of the congressional swing districts in greater New York, New Jersey, and tell us what you think is going on there. 212-433-WNYC.

Again, anyone who's canvassing for any candidate there, what's your sense of the undecided voters and what they're really looking for? 212-433-9692, or if you're an undecided voter yourself there. As a starting point on the swing district, Errol, the usual take on why Republicans flipped a handful of seats in the New York suburbs two years ago is that the perception of crime in New York City, accurate perception or not, and whether or not that crime had come to their neighborhoods in the suburbs, favored the Republicans. That was the big issue advantage. Plus there was a redistricting advantage that year and a poor Democratic turnout operation by the state party. Are you in that narrative about 2022?

Errol Louis: Oh, yes. Look, there were a lot of different things that were going on. There were a few more, in fact, that went on. That whole craziness with Sean Patrick Maloney up in the northern suburbs, and all of the factors just lined up against the Democrats. Some of the wounds were self-inflicted. Not to be overlooked is the fact that the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Lee Zeldin, is a very talented campaigner and he decided to focus on crime. He drove that issue home day after day, week after week. He's a very smart and persuasive guy. He would show up in the South Bronx at a crime scene and do a-- he had national attention, and he really drove that narrative home.

The fact that Kathy Hochul was, I think, slow to recognize what he was doing and the damage that it was doing is another factor. The fact that she's an upstate gubernatorial nominee of the Democratic Party for the first time in probably 100 years. There are a lot of different factors, and they all lined up against the Democrats, and they had a near-death experience in the state and they lost several seats that had national implications. Now, I don't know which of the many lessons they have learned, but they, piece by piece, you go through it. They tried to fix all of them, really.

Kathy Hochul spends a lot more time downstate. They certainly tried to work the redistricting in a different direction, and they did that successfully. They put together this joint campaign for the first time so that New York is legally and logistically much better able to coordinate the messaging up and down the line so that members of the assembly and the US Senate candidates are basically running with the same theory, with the same messaging, and in some ways in coordinated fashion. Trying to base this year on what happened just a couple of years ago I think would be a mistake. The Democrats, I think, are trying to fix what went wrong for them.

Brian Lehrer: We have a couple of callers who we're going to start with on the phones, who, I think, are both from the southwest Nassau County district where freshman Republican Anthony D'Esposito is defending his seat against Democrat Laura Gillen, very much considered a swing district. Let's start with Rhonda in Baldwin. You're on WNYC. Hi, Rhonda, Baldwin's in that district, right?

Rhonda: Yes, it is. Hi. Good morning.

Brian Lehrer: You're doing some canvassing, I see.

Rhonda: I am. I go out almost every weekend.

Brian Lehrer: For Laura Gillen in particular?

Rhonda: Yes, for Laura Gillen, Judy Griffith, basically the whole Democratic slate. When I talk to people, I also ask them, are they supporting Kamala at the top of the ticket? So yes, but mostly, the campaign is really-- it starts off for Laura Gillen. Yes.

Brian Lehrer: What's your headline if you were writing a story of your experience?

Rhonda: This area, I would say, is very mixed. As I canvas, it depends on what part of Baldwin I'm in. Basically, I could go anywhere in this congressional district, but I've chosen Baldwin because I live in Baldwin. When I go, it's easier for me to say I'm a neighbor, and then I'm there as a volunteer for the Democrats in Nassau County, but it's very mixed. In part of Baldwin, you'll see a lot of Trump-D'Esposito signs, but in other parts of Baldwin, you won't.

There are signs for Harris and for the rest of the Democratic ticket. What happens is most of the time people aren't home or you think they're not home. People have ring doorbells, and I think they see, "Oh, somebody canvassing. I'm not going to answer the door."

Brian Lehrer: Yes.

Rhonda: There are people who answer and sometimes it's very nice. People tell you right away, "I'm voting Democratic up and down the ballot." Couple of people --

Brian Lehrer: Let me ask this. If you're seeing a lot of Trump D'Esposito signs and a lot of Harris, maybe Harris Gillen signs. Those are the people who are decided. Are you finding undecided voters as you knock on doors?

Rhonda: A few. For some, there's an issue. For one woman in particular, it was a fairly young woman. She said that she and her mother are not going to vote because they didn't like either candidate at the top of the ticket. If they weren't going to vote for the president, they weren't going to vote for the rest of the ticket. For her, the issue had to do with what was happening in Gaza. She felt-- she basically, as she expressed it, that both candidates are evil.

We had a conversation about it and I told her how I felt about what would happen if Trump became president, what would happen to Gaza, and so she said that she would think about what I said, and that she would talk to her mother. I feel that that was the best-- you can feel it, anyone could say at that moment. I don't think that anyone's going to say to you at that moment, "Oh, you convinced me. I'm going to go out and vote." The fact that something was--

Brian Lehrer: Gaza is one issue that came up. Do you have another one, another story of an undecided voter and an issue that they mentioned?

Rhonda: This wasn't in my district because I also went to Pennsylvania with a couple of my friends, and we canvassed in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. One guy who came to talk to us, for him, the issue had to do with the immigrants. He felt there were too many immigrants, blah, blah, blah. We had a conversation about that. Again, he said he'd think about what we said, and that was it. Again, I think that was the best we could expect at that moment.

Brian Lehrer: Rhonda, thank you. Thank you very much for your call. Interesting, Errol. She brings up immigration. You moderated the debate this week between Democrat incumbent Pat Ryan in the Hudson Valley and Alison Esposito, the Republican challenger who was Lee Zeldin's running mate in that gubernatorial race. You pulled some clips for your station, New York 1. I'm going to read the transcript of these. Interesting that you pegged immigration as an issue to pull clips on.

You have Esposito saying, "There's billions of dollars going to fund, to feed, to clothe, to house, to care for illegal immigrants," as she called them. "I believe we need a secure southern border. We need to work on immigration reform, but we need a secure southern border, and we need to do that right away." Ryan then responded, "I've been one of a very small number, unfortunately, of Democrats willing to stand up to and call on and eventually call out President Biden for not doing enough to secure the border. Thankfully, he listened." Pat Ryan said. "We've seen the numbers come down in terms of folks crossing the southern border, but there's more work to do."

Errol, what's your sense of immigration as an issue in these swing districts? Have Trump and the Republicans basically won for this election cycle in selling this as a crisis? Democrats aren't even trying to say this is actually okay or manageable or even good for New York state in the long term as large-scale immigration has historically been. We see Pat Ryan as an incumbent trying to run away from his party.

Errol Louis: That's exactly right. The striking thing as we were preparing for the debate was we were looking for what I was expecting to see, a handful of national issues, but a ton of local issues about the cleanup of the Hudson River or what have you. Instead, it looked like the entire race or much of the race was really about these national issues, starting with immigration. It was the very first question that I asked during the debate. I pointed out, I said, "Look, over 95% of the residents of the 18th congressional district are actually US citizens. You all do not have an issue with migrants flooding into the district at all."

I just threw that out there just like, "Why are we talking about this?" The answer of why we were talking about it is it's something that the Republicans have messaged from the top very consistently with perfect discipline all around the country, and so everybody has to talk about it, whether it's a "local issue," or not. Yes, they have successfully put it on the agenda. Very few Democrats I've seen anywhere have stepped forward to say this is objectively not the number one, two, or three most important issue in this local district.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take another call from the D'Esposito/Gillen race district, southwest Nassau County, in fact, right over the border from Queens. Zach in Valley Stream, you're on WNYC. Hi, Zach. Thank you for calling in.

Zach: Hey, thanks for having me, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: What you got?

Zach: I am in Valley Stream right-- yes, go ahead, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: No, you go ahead. Just asking what you got.

Zach: Yes, I'm in Valley Stream right now. I've been knocking on doors. I've actually been knocking on doors across Nassau County for the better part of the last two years. Most of what I hear from voters is that they're disenchanted by the extremes of both political parties right now. They're looking for common sense solutions on issues like gun safety, like the affordability crisis that we're facing, like the border crisis. This isn't just a federal issue. While I'm knocking on doors right now for Laura Gillen and have been for Tom Suozzi, it's also something that you see state legislature candidates talking about.

I'm sitting in front of literature for New York State Senate candidate James Lynch, common sense solution-oriented leader. Candidate for New York State assembly, Tina Posterli. Integrity, common sense results. These are candidates who are fighting for common-sense solutions. As we go knock on doors, they're looking for people who are actually going to work on addressing these problems rather than exploiting them. For me, that's why I'm knocking on doors right now for Laura Gillen, because she's been a problem solver.

Brian Lehrer: One of the things that I'm curious to get Errol's take on, and I think you're involved with that, if I understood my screener correctly, is that there's a third party, an alternative party for people to vote for the Democrat on in your district and some of the other districts called the Common Sense New York Party. Are you involved with that?

Zach: Yes. I have been an advisor for that effort, and it very much speaks to the interests, needs, and desires of folks in this district. Historically here, there's been an opportunity for folks to vote with the Conservative Party or the Working Families Party. The Common Sense Party is a ballot line now that exists. It's a way for voters in the middle, Republicans, Democrats, independents alike, to express their values and vote for someone who in this case is a Common Sense Democrat. Laura Gillen, there's also Tom Suozzi, who's running on the line in New York's third congressional district, and John Avlon, who's running on a Common Sense Suffolk line in New York 1.

Brian Lehrer: Since you're canvassing for the Democrat, what makes those Democrats, Laura Gillen, in the case you were talking about, really a Democrat? You know what I mean is if your movement is framing a third party that's in the middle, you mentioned some of the values or some of the positions that it might be about, what's left of being a Democrat or, for that matter, a Republican, if they have the Common Sense New York party line in addition to their main party?

Zach: In New York state, we have diffusion voting opportunity for folks. In this case, Laura Gillen is running as a Democrat, but some folks who I speak with on the doors feel a little disenchanted by the Democratic party, and so they don't want to vote for Laura Gillen as a Democrat. They want to vote for Laura Gillen because of what she stands for. Again, on issues like gun safety, on the border crisis, on affordability. They know that she's actually out there trying to solve problems. They've seen recently some of the news about Anthony D'Esposito and how he's run into ethics problems, and he really hasn't been there for anyone other than himself.

People don't want to vote the party necessarily, but they want to vote the values. That's so much of what I've been hearing on the doors and hearing from Long Island voters. They're frustrated. They feel like the parties haven't been listening to them. They want leaders who really embody the values that they have, common sense gun safety, common sense affordability issues, and common sense addressing the crisis at the border.

Brian Lehrer: Zach, thank you very much for your call. Errol Louis, are you familiar with the Common Sense New York party, and what do you think about the strategy that the caller from it is laying out there? It seems to be targeted toward people who don't like the Democratic Party, don't want to write in Democrat on their ballots, but can't stand Trump, frankly.

Errol Louis: Something like that. The Common Sense party was an effort driven in large part by my good friend John Avlon, who's the Democratic candidate out in New York 1. This is something that it's not unusual in New York politics. We've changed the rules around it, but we've had these third parties floating around for quite a while. We make it relatively easy for people to either start them or try to deploy them as a strategy. Why people try to deploy them is to try and pull either of the major parties to the left or to the right or to the middle or to wherever you think they ought to be.

The Working Families Party has almost-- people were turning down their endorsement on Long Island. It just wasn't working for their candidates out there, and so the candidates came up with their own, and they're trying to tug the Democratic Party, the Democratic giant, more toward the middle and away from where the WFP wanted to take them. That's perfectly legitimate. Things wax and wane, the electorate and the issues and the parties move around from time to time. I think this is just a normal part of politics. It is quite striking and I think very clear on Long Island, at least in this cycle, that Democrats think that the key to winning is to move more toward the center and try to capture some of the true swing voters and maybe even a few Republicans along the way.

Brian Lehrer: We'll have another example of that with clips from the Hudson Valley candidate interviews we did this week and more with Errol Louis and you. 212-433-WNYC. We're even going to talk about how Eric Adams became the butt of jokes, I think, by both Harris and Trump at the annual Al Smith dinner in the city last night. Stay with us.

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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC with Errol Louis from New York 1 and New York Magazine. As we talk mostly about the swing congressional districts in the New York City suburbs, I want to play another example of running toward the middle. On this show this week, we had both candidates in the Mike Lawler/Mondaire Jones race, Rockland County, Putnam County, parts of Westchester and Dutchess, and they were both eager to tout their centrist credentials. Here's the Republican Lawler.

Mike Lawler: Look, I've led the effort to pass the Undetectable Firearms Act, a bill that was signed into law by President Reagan 35 years ago and one that we were able to extend by seven years because I led the effort working with Madeleine Dean, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, and obviously getting bipartisan support and consensus on common sense gun safety measures isn't always so easy.

Brian Lehrer: A Republican touting his gun regulation credentials. Here's the Democrat, Mondaire Jones, reacting to the Lawler campaign ads that claim he answers to the Squad, answers to AOC. Jones said there was a perception during his first race in 2020 that was incorrect that he would join the Squad.

Mondaire Jones: Just to be very clear, I was interviewed before I was ever elected to Congress, even after I won my primary and made very clear I was not part of the Squad. To the extent anyone would suggest otherwise, including my opponent right now, after having complimented me publicly in an interview for not being part of the Squad, they are obviously very mistaken.

Brian Lehrer: So interesting, Errol. Those two clips as representative of both parties-- both candidates saying, "Oh, I don't really believe in what may even be the mainstream," or they're trying to frame it as the wings of their party, and voters have to sort that out somehow.

Errol Louis: That's right, although it's pretty easy. You can see where people are going. Mondaire Jones was running in a district that included the West Village a couple of years ago. When that didn't work out, now he's back and he's singing a different tune. To the extent that he has trimmed his sails a little bit or moved more toward the middle, the Working Families Party actually withdrew its help. They still technically endorsed him, but that created enough of an opening that a third person snuck in and won the Working Families' primary, which makes that race even that much more complicated. This is for those who don't like to see this--

Brian Lehrer: By the way, that Working Families Party, we talked about this on the show the other day, but people should know the candidate who actually won that Working Families Party line in that race is widely believed to be a stalking horse for the Republican just trying to take some votes away from Mondaire Jones to help the Republican win. I don't know if you have independent reporting that confirms that.

Errol Louis: No, no, that sounds like the most likely explanation. The person basically got the endorsement and more or less has vanished. It's not like he's out there actively campaigning. We see this happen in part because this is the way-- look, our system has evolved to a point where the two major parties are essentially large coalitions of different interest groups. It's easier to see on the Democratic side, but it's certainly true on the Republican side, too. On the Democratic side, we know that there are environmentalists and there are labor unions, and there are civil rights activists, and there are urban political machines that are all important factors, and they're all contending and they have different needs and different preferences, and they struggle over where the party should go.

When that happens, what it means is that somebody like a Mondaire Jones has to be a little bit adept at picking which of the many different constituent groups and different social movements within the party he's going to align himself with. We who watch politics closely can see him do that little dance, but there's nothing wrong with that. That's just a matter of trying to be a good representative--

Brian Lehrer: For example, on the show, he regretted taking a defund the police position in 2020, but he still embraces Medicare for All, which he probably did on the show, so people are picking their spots.

Errol Louis: Exactly. Exactly. Look, those who were in favor of criminal justice reform, I remember writing a column about this and thinking it at the time and watching it happen, which was that when people started using the slogan "defund the police", I thought it was unfortunate, not just because it was inaccurate. What people were really talking about is reorganizing how we deal with crime and disorder. I didn't realize it was going to become a national problem for Democrats. When that happens, when you see a problem, you just got to move away from it.

That's the essence of politics, is try to be where the sensible middle is going to fall, and we put that to a test every 24 months. It's not a perfect system, but it's a pretty good one for figuring out what any given group of, say, 700,000 people want to see happen.

Brian Lehrer: I'll add another dynamic here that I think voters are grappling with. When candidates try to nuance or run away from past positions, it's going to come down to who the voters believe will really follow through on the things they're saying now as opposed to things in their past. Because in the Lawler and Jones interviews, for example, they each accuse the other of lying about their real positions and what they would really do if elected. Such as Lawler promises not to vote for a national abortion ban, but if you look at his record, he's got an 89% score from the anti-abortion Anthony List group and a very low score from Planned Parenthood.

There's a record there versus there's a promise there and people have to decide, "Well, do I believe that the candidate is going to be as moderate as they're claiming to be, or are they just doing this to get into office, and then they're going to go with wherever the winds blow in their party?"

Errol Louis: Yes. Look, there's never a perfect way to try and anticipate this, but politicians are in the unfortunate position of wanting to seem sincere and acting on deeply held values and beliefs only to see those things change a few months later. Then they want to put on the same act and same sincerity even as you're going in a different direction. I personally think it would be helpful if voters would at least acknowledge that some of the changing, shifting positions of politicians are because we ourselves have changing, shifting positions.

If you think about where New York was, say, 15-20 years ago on same-sex marriage and where we are now, a lot of people's attitudes have changed. A lot of people's beliefs have changed. A lot of people's voting patterns have changed. I don't know if we should penalize the politicians for that, per se, but it certainly puts them in a difficult position. Once in a while, you do see people, and I wish we had more like this, who would just have put their cards on the table and have a very frank and adult conversation with the voters and say, "Look, this is where I am now, because I think this is where you are now. If that changes, I think we should have this conversation all over again." I don't see anything wrong with that, but it's a very tough way to win an election.

Brian Lehrer: Right, but that could start a whole deeper conversation about what is an elected official for? Is it just to reflect the current will of the majority of the people in the district, or is it to lead? That some, of course, it's some mix of that, but what's really right? What's really best for society?

Errol Louis: Looping back to something we talked about a few minutes ago, Brian. I've seen this-- Sal Albanese comes to mind. There were a number of people who were technically out of step with their district on a lot of issues, but they would draw a bright line in the sand. Mario Cuomo did this famously on the death penalty, and he would say, "This is where I stand on this and I'm not moving on this one."

"We could talk about a lot of other things, but I'm just not changing on this. If that's something that you find is a deal killer for you, well, I'm sorry, I guess I'm going to have to kill the deal." Now, you don't want to have too many of those red lines, but the handful that you do have on, say, I don't know, gun control or taxation and so forth, I think it's probably, it is survivable to take a position, hold that position, and then try and serve the heck out of what your constituents need on the routine, mundane issues that a lot of people really care about.

Brian Lehrer: Here's a caller from that Mike Lawler/Mondaire Jones district. Chris in Armonk, you're on WNYC. Hi, Chris.

Chris: Good morning, Brian. Yes, Armonk is in the town of North Castle, and we were formerly in [unintelligible 00:38:18] district, which was, I guess, now the 16th. Now we're in the 17th. I feel like we're in the tail end of the district. The sense of Mondaire Jones or Mike Lawler having a real presence, I don't feel it here in this part of Westchester County. I've met Nita Lowey a dozen times, George Latimer, et cetera, but I haven't seen these guys campaigning in Westchester County and having a significant presence here.

I feel like the race is going on in Rockland and Duchess. I think Mondaire Jones is-- he's got a little bit of a credibility issue because he's congressional district shopping. I think, of course, Mike Lawler has a credibility issue because he's going to support Donald Trump, and that's a hard sale in Westchester County.

Brian Lehrer: Chris, thank you very much. Jenny in Westchester. You're on WNYC. Hi, Jenny.

Jenny: Hi, Brian. Thanks so much for taking my call. I have been canvassing for the last month or so for Laura Gillen on Long Island. My congressional district 16 is pretty much a slam dunk for the Democrats, so I need to go elsewhere. I chose to go out for Laura Gillen. I would say, unlike what the previous caller was saying about that district, my experience, not to contradict him, but simply to add to that, that my experience is we are talking to a lot of likely Democratic voters who are not undecided.

One of the things that increases the energy in the conversation is to talk about Prop 1 because I think it has seemed to make people a little more excited about voting when they know that if they flip over the ballot and vote yes on Prop 1, that it's a vote for abortion rights or LGBTQ rights or disability rights. That's been a part of the conversation. Then the only other observation I'd make is that we've been canvassing these areas where the Democrats we talk to seem to think that they're surrounded by Trump supporters.

There are indeed Trump signs, but there was one day, four of us, we knocked on 100 doors in a pretty small neighborhood, and so we were able to tell those Democrats that they're actually not alone, that they feel like they're surrounded by Trumpers, but they actually are surrounded by fellow Democrats. We've had a very positive experience.

Brian Lehrer: Meaning you're trying to convince them to turn out. It does seem that the Trump supporters put out more lawn signs as a percentage of their existence than Harris voters do. I don't know if that's just my perception.

Jenny: Oh, no, it totally [crosstalk] by our experience.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. You're trying to tell the Democrats, "This is not a lost cause. It's worth you showing up."

Jenny: Absolutely. Between Prop 1 and also just making them feel just a little more confident in the possibility that their vote might actually make a difference. Also, part of that is that they're not necessarily aware that they live in a swing district. Those of us who are politically aware know that, but the voters don't, necessarily. We tell them that, too.

Brian Lehrer: Jenny, that's important. Thank you. Prop 1, a New York state equal rights amendment that's on the ballot statewide. Errol, a closing thought. If you want, you can promote what you're doing on your weekly national show tonight. I know it's at eight o'clock on Spectrum News, New York 1 in the city and Spectrum systems around the country.

Errol Louis: Oh, sure. Thank you for that, Brian. Real quick, by the way. New York 4, Jenny should-- she knows. That district that D'Esposito represents as a Republican went 56%, over 56% for Joe Biden just four years ago. Nobody out there who's a Democrat should feel like they're in some sea of red. Quite the opposite. This week, we're talking on the big deal about some of the Senate races around the country, some of the most competitive ones, like Sherrod Brown in Ohio, the big contest that's going on out in Arizona, an overlooked one in Pennsylvania.

These are really interesting competitive races. Colin Allred and Ted Cruz, where you see a similar dynamic to what you and I have been talking about, Brian, where a lot of candidates are moving toward the middle. It's much harder to distance yourself from the top of the ticket if you're running for the national legislature called the US Senate. There are some really striking instances where the Senate candidates are running very differently than where the top of the ticket is. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, for example, holding onto a very narrow lead out there, and he didn't even show up at the DNC. That's how much he wants to distance himself from the Democratic brand as he tries to win reelection.

Brian Lehrer: We didn't even get to the Eric Adams jokes at the annual Al Smith political dinner in New York last night that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump both showed up at. We'll just have to watch the video or watch Saturday Night Live tomorrow. Errol Louis from New York 1 and New York Magazine, always appreciate it. Thanks a lot.

Errol Louis: Thank you, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Much more to come.

 

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