Title: Election Day Exit Polls in New Jersey

[music]

Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Happy Election Day, everybody. The New Jersey gubernatorial race has been nationalized. Both candidates had presidents joining them on the campaign trail in recent days. Let's hear a clip first from former President Barack Obama stumping for Mikie Sherrill, the Democrat, at a rally at Essex County Community College on Saturday.

[clip plays]

Former President Barack Obama: We've got a president who thinks it's okay to use the Justice Department, just for example, to use the Justice Department to go after his political opponents.

[audience boos]

Former President Barack Obama: Wait, wait, wait, here's a rule. You can't boo. You've got to vote. They won't hear you if you're booing, but they'll hear your vote.

[clip ends]

Brian Lehrer: There's Obama for Mikie Sherrill. Here's President Trump at a tele-town hall for Jack Ciattarelli last night.

[clip plays]

President Trump: Mikie Sherrill, the only thing she's got going is it's a very unusual name. I've never heard of the name Mikie for a woman, but maybe this will be the last.

[clip ends]

Brian Lehrer: President Trump, former President Obama, and with me now is Nancy Solomon, host of the "Ask Governor Murphy" monthly call-in show on WNYC, and of course, longtime Jersey journalist for the station. Hey, Nancy, Happy Election Day.

Nancy Solomon: Thank you. Hi, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Were you surprised that presidents were weighing in there? I know Trump also weighed in in the New York City mayoral race officially last night. Obama expressed support for Mamdani if he's elected but didn't take a position officially as I guess Obama says he doesn't do in municipal elections anywhere as a policy since leaving the White House, but there was Obama for Mikie Sherrill, there was Trump for Jack Ciattarelli. Whose votes do they think these presidents or ex-presidents will draw?

Nancy Solomon: Their party base for sure. I think there are a couple of interesting things, though, sort of questions that it raised for me. One is, why didn't Donald Trump come to New Jersey? He did a tele-town hall, but he didn't actually make a physical appearance in the state during the entire campaign. I think the answer to that question can be found in his favorability ratings in New Jersey and maybe it was decided that it wouldn't be such a good advantage for him to come, and would it draw big protests?

I think there were probably considerations around that or maybe he just didn't care enough, but he certainly threw his weight behind Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate, and wants very much to see Jack Ciattarelli win because of the way that'll be talked about around the country as a reflection on his popularity. I would have expected to see him do more, but I guess they must have made a decision that it was going to help them more to do these, they've done, I think, two of these tele-town halls where he has spoken in favor of the candidate.

On the Obama side, this is nothing new. Obama has come at the weekend before the election to stump for big, statewide Democratic candidates. He did it for Phil Murphy in '21, so no surprise there. I think I was a little surprised that he came so late in the process, because to my mind, he could have come a week ago, and they could have taken those clips and put them out as ads with a little bit more runtime. I think those clips are out there on social media and they're getting eaten up. There are some great lines from him, some good jokes, and they're doing well on social media, but I'm just surprised the campaign is spending so much money on ads, why wouldn't they have wanted to set this up a little earlier?

Maybe they couldn't. Maybe that was an Obama decision. I don't know. Those are the big questions. The Obama appearance was in Newark, and Newark is a major focus for getting-- there are a lot of Democratic votes in Newark. It's like 95% to 98% Democratic city. It's the biggest city in the state, so no surprise there that he was in Newark. I was a little surprised--

Brian Lehrer: [crosstalk] to say perhaps that Sherrill didn't do so well in the Democratic primary for governor, and where Kamala Harris underperformed last year. Would that be fair to say about Newark?

Nancy Solomon: Yes, that is fair to say about Newark, although in this election cycle, Mikie Sherrill has hired the brother of Ras Baraka, the mayor of Newark, to do Get Out The Vote. He generally works on his brother's campaign, and now he's working for Mikie Sherrill. I've heard that the Get Out The Vote efforts all across the state have been very strong and that this is something that the Sherrill campaign has done a good job of, so we'll see.

There's early voting numbers that could show that Newark had pretty tepid turnout in early voting compared to other places, like Jersey City had tremendous Democratic turnout. They were in the midst of a very hot, very contested mayoral race, so it makes sense that a lot of people would be turning out in voting, particularly Democrats. Like the New York mayoral race, it's Democrat versus Democrat, even though it's the general and not the primary. The early voting, that's starting to look pretty good for the Sherrill campaign at the moment.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, any late deciders in any New Jersey race, 212-433-WNYC. We did this for New York City mayoral election and New York City ballot question voters last hour. Late deciders, for an informal, unofficial, thoroughly unscientific Brian Lehrer Show exit poll, if you decided in the last two weeks for governor or any race in New Jersey, 212-433-9692, call or text, or we can take any question for Nancy Solomon on any of the races in Jersey, 212-433-WNYC, 433-9692. Here's a late decider, Peter in Jersey City, you're on WNYC. Hi, Peter.

Peter: Hi. I didn't even know that we were voting for mayor this year until I got my mail-in ballot around Labor Day. I'd been getting weird mailings from McGreevey all year, but none of them had a date on it. Then I got my ballot, looked at the back, there's seven candidates, six of whom I'd never heard of. Then the advertising cards started coming, these giant cards with no information whatsoever about the candidates.

Then it turns out that in a non-part[unintelligible 00:07:49] election, each candidate gets to put a little slogan. I noticed that Solomon used the word affordability in his slogan, and I thought, "Hmm, if he's writing Mamdani's coattails, he might be a good guy." I got my ballot in the mail last Monday with Solomon and his slate of at-large Council members. Yesterday I got my postcard with the sticker I voted by mail. We'll see what happens tonight.

Brian Lehrer: Peter, thank you--

Peter: Oh.

Brian Lehrer: Yes.

Peter: Friday, you finally had the Jersey City mayor race.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, we did a segment.

Peter: I found out that Solomon was the right guy to vote for. He wasn't a Republican in disguise or anything.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. Yes. In that segment, which to be clear, was not an endorsement of Solomon in any way, but we were comparing the candidates on their issues and their experiences. I'm glad that helped at least Peter in Jersey City, Nancy. Interesting. Would you say that he's right in seeing Solomon- No relation to you, I presume?

Nancy Solomon: Yes, exactly.

Brian Lehrer: -in a little bit of the Mamdani mold, I don't know if that would mean Democratic socialist leaning or just that he centered affordability, that word, in his campaign?

Nancy Solomon: I think he's the progressive candidate in the race. I think that's fair to say. He has a strong record. He came up through the political ranks as an activist after Trump was elected in 2016, was part of a progressive activist group in Jersey City trying to push back on Jared Kushner developments in the city. He has fought against real estate developers who-- Jersey City is a lot like New York, that is such a huge issue there, whether the city apparatus allows developers to do whatever they want or holds their feet to the fire to build affordable housing, say for one example, or to do more human scaled development.

These are big issues in Jersey City, and as a city councilman, which he went from being an activist to being on the city council, he has always fought for those issues. I think it's a fair thing to say about him. Yes.

Brian Lehrer: Lucia in South Orange--

Nancy Solomon: And I would say the relationship to Mamdani, what's been interesting in Hudson County, which of course is right across the river from New York, is that what we've seen is a real enthusiasm boost among activists and voters about the possibility of getting progressive candidates elected, that they have been watching the New York City campaign and really taking inspiration, and we've got some reformers running for the Assembly in Hoboken, and there's been a groundswell of support for Solomon.

The polls, there aren't a whole lot of polls, but what's been out there recently shows that it's a dead heat race. I think there is a sort of connection, that people have been energized by the Mamdani campaign.

Brian Lehrer: That's going to be a question around the country, I imagine, if Mamdani wins tonight, and that is in what cities or in what states or in what congressional races, does the fact that he won here with probably a new kind of voter coalition for New York City, how much would it apply wherever people are? Because obviously it's not going to apply everywhere. We see even some of the New York suburbs, on either side of the river, that have trended more Republican in recent years, and they may not want to follow the Mamdani mold, but that's going to be a really big question, I think, around the country if Mamdani wins, you think?

Nancy Solomon: Yes. National politics is not my bailiwick, but I do read a lot, and I've seen, say, [silence].

Brian Lehrer: Oops, did we just lose Nancy's line? I think we lost Nancy for a minute, so I'm going to go to Lucia in South Orange. Lucia, you're on WNYC. Hi there.

Lucia: Hi, it's Lucia in South Orange. Well, hell would have to freeze over before I would vote for Jack Ciattarelli, but there was a local issue, that I made a last-minute decision on, which was recreation improvement. I live a couple of blocks away from the recreation area. There's a fund that's dedicated to, they do like rain-catching gardens and recreational courts. They're going to redo the whole thing, but the taxes are going to go up, and we already pay an astronomical amount of money in taxes, so I wasn't going to vote for it.

Then I read some-- One of our former town council members said, "Well,--" He just convinced me that even though it's against my interest to have my taxes raised, it is in my interest to have the recreational facilities improved, especially so close to my home.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much for chiming in on that. So many people do not take the time to study very local issues like that. I'm glad you did, and maybe that helps some voters make up their mind, whether they vote the same way as you did or at least turn around at the last minute and check it out for themselves. Here us Mason in Jersey City who says he just decided recently for governor. Mason, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Mason: Hi. You know me, my name is Mason. I just recently decided on Mikie Sherrill last week. I had also been doing some canvassing for James Solomon here in Jersey City as well, which definitely informed my decision. He has been kind of an advocate. Not only an advocate but also a champion for local infrastructure and repairing roads, especially when consideration for the water, so close to the water, and flooding in the financial district, or the downtown district, of Jersey City.

With all these in mind, especially with considerations for safety and for education, that's where he got my vote. Building from there is where I was able to kind of build the trust that was instilled in me that was necessary for my vote for [pronunciation of Mikie], I believe, or Mikie, I should say.

Brian Lehrer: Interesting, but if you're a Solomon supporter and even canvasser, that would put you more or less in the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, I think, so why was it even a question for you with respect to Mikie Sherrill versus Jack Ciattarelli?

Mason: Absolutely. When it came to James Solomon, one of the first things I noticed was these very progressive policies and platforms, but he was not identifying himself as a Democrat. For me, it definitely raised [unintelligible 00:15:07], but after a little bit of investigation, I realized that he was going off of the platform of performance-based first in getting those results in instead of leaning on your personality or identity of being a Democrat or a Republican, which I believe is what's best interest to the local constituents of his area.

Brian Lehrer: Mason, thank you very much for your call. We appreciate it. Here is a text from a listener who writes, "I'm in Central Jersey, in Howell, just north of Lakewood, and turnout here looks strong. I voted for the Democratic candidate, though not with much enthusiasm." Listener writes, "One thing I've noticed is that the MAGA flags that used to be everywhere seem a lot fewer and lower this time around." Interesting observation from one voter there in Howell.

Nancy Solomon is back with us now. Nancy, that last text that I just read and even some of the ambivalence of the callers we've been hearing from kind of gets us to how close, you've been saying all year, since the primary in June, you thought this race would be, that there's a history in New Jersey of whichever party has the governor's seat does intend to keep it for a third term, right? Once the sitting governor is term-limited out after two, it's been tending to flip to the other party. How do you think that's played out since the primary, from what you could tell?

Nancy Solomon: I think that's why this race is so close, because, as we know, New Jersey has built up a large margin of more Democrats than Republicans, although it really is the independence in a statewide vote that can really turn the race in either direction because there are just as many of them. Yes, 1961 was the last time one of the parties won a third term for governor. That's quite a number of years. I think this year is just-- it's so diff-- In some ways, it's very similar in that there are local issues, there are statewide issues that people feel very passionately, particularly high taxes, but lots of other things.

There's been a real backlash among moderate to right wing voters about clean energy, and there's been a lot of advertising about how you're going to be forced to buy an electric car and your gas stove is going to be taken away. Jack Ciattarelli, when he goes out to-- at events, and the one line that is his biggest applause line is that he's going to bring back plastic grocery bags to the supermarkets.

Brian Lehrer: Wow.

Nancy Solomon: There are all kinds of local issues and statewide issues that are driving people, but also the polarization that we're well aware of at the national level, and the way that Democrats are now so entrenched and Republicans are now so entrenched in supporting their party and not trusting the other party has gotten so much worse, so I do think that national issues are playing out. Mikie Sherrill probably will get a pretty decent boost from particularly the left wing of Democratic Party voters. She wasn't their candidate in the primary.

They don't like that she advertises so much about the fact that she was in the Navy and was a helicopter pilot, but people do not want the Republican to win and they don't want Donald Trump to be able to seize upon this as a victory, number one, or number two, have less resistance to him at the state level. Those issues are really animating Democratic voters.

I've talked to a lot of people who, when the primary was just freshly over in June, were really unhappy with Mikie Sherrill, and yet then by summer's end, we're out knocking on doors canvassing for her. I think that Donald Trump really is an animating force in this election in a way that other past statewide elections probably always had some element of that because we know that voters usually choose the candidate of the party that's not in the White House, so it's not like it hasn't ever mattered before, but I'd say it's just sharper right now.

Brian Lehrer: I guess that's why in that Obama on the stump for Mikie Sherrill clip that we played, he was taking aim at Trump more than it seemed like he was taking aim at Jack Ciattarelli, that the Trump factor is a factor even when voting for the local office of governor. Joining us for a few minutes is WNYC's Verónica Del Valle, Morning Edition producer. She's been out at poll sites in various places in New Jersey this morning. Hey, Verónica, Happy Election Day.

Verónica Del Valle: Hey, Brian. Happy Election Day.

Brian Lehrer: You're in Jersey City. We were talking about the mayoral election going on there. Where are you specifically and what are you hearing?

Verónica Del Valle: Right now I'm on Jersey City's west side, around the corner from Saint Aloysius Roman Catholic Church. I've been hearing from voters who are casting their ballot for a pretty wide spread of candidates. There are canvassers for all sorts of mayoral candidates on every single corner with T-shirts and flyers and pamphlets, but one thing that struck me is I heard from one voter named Kat Choate near a firehouse here in Jersey City. She had moved to Jersey City recently from Brooklyn and said she was really struck by what she called a sort of a nonpartisan mayoral election.

She said that she made her choice for mayor not necessarily based on who hewed the closest to her political ideology but who she thought could win, which was really, really interesting. I also heard something similar from a voter here on Jersey City's west side named Nas Millett. He's 31. He calls himself a Jersey boy. He said he voted for one of the candidates, Mussab Ali, but he didn't actually think any of the candidates were going to get 51% of the votes, so he thought the election was going to go to a runoff either way.

Brian Lehrer: I know earlier in the morning you were in Paterson. What were you hearing from voters there?

Verónica Del Valle: In Paterson, I heard a lot of voters expressing really extreme frustration about people getting fewer SNAP benefits this month because of the ongoing government shutdown. More than one voter told me this should not be happening in what they called the richest country in the world. A few folks like Richard Smith, he told me to call him Smitty, emphasized that he himself does not need SNAP benefits, but that he finds it unconscionable, that New Jersey, that this country is letting people go without them. Then he very enthusiastically told me that he was casting his ballot for Mikie Sherrill. He said he likes that she goes all over the state, he said, from the suburbs to the hood.

Brian Lehrer: Paterson is in Passaic County. I see you also went to an administrative building in Passaic County where the Board of Elections is housed. We've been talking about this on the show. This is the county where the Trump administration said it would be sending some sort of election monitors or observers there with respect to monitoring the integrity of mail-in ballots. Did you see anything related to that at that location?

Verónica Del Valle: It was pretty sleepy there, Brian. I was there just past 7:45 in the morning, and and it was quiet. I saw a few people dropping off their mail-in ballots. I saw a few people heading into the building, but there was no law enforcement while I was there really early today.

Brian Lehrer: All right, good luck out there today, Verónica. I know we'll be hearing from you all day on the newscasts. Thanks for giving us a few minutes.

Verónica Del Valle: Thanks, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Nancy Solomon, a couple of things before you go. We have a text message relevant to the Trump clip that we played in the tele-town hall for Jack Ciattarelli last night. For people who weren't listening at that moment, he said, "Mikie Sherrill, the only thing she's got going is it's a very unusual name. I've never heard of the name Mikie for a woman, but maybe this will be the last." A listener heard that and wrote, "Glad to see that Trump went right to the heart of the matter. It's very important to focus on a female candidate's name or nickname."

There was a recent op-ed in the New York Times by Molly Jong-Fast about the electability of women after two, you know, one might say similarly competent, similarly centrist Democratic women were defeated by Trump in presidential elections in 2016 and 2024. Has the sexism or potential sexism of the electorate been an issue for Mikie Sherrill that either she or any advocates are talking about that you've heard?

Nancy Solomon: Well, I can't say I've heard anything specific about that. I think it's always an issue. I don't think it's gone away. I think it doesn't matter whether it's socially liberal place like New Jersey or other parts of the country. I just think it's an issue for men. I don't think you can just discount the fact that the two presidential candidates were women who were defeated, that the New Jersey state legislature continues to be dominated by men. We've had one female governor in all these years.

Is it a problem? I think it is still a problem. I think women, elected officials, whether locally or at the state legislature have talked often about the sexism that they encounter in a really day-to-day kind of way as women elected officials. I'm sure it's an issue. This is a place where maybe Mikie Sherrill's Navy helicopter pilot stuff really does help her in that she projects this tough image, a lot of the photos of her in her literature, she's got the bomber jacket on, the real kind, not the stylish kind. Maybe that's part of what she's trying to do, is to telescope to people, "Hey, I'm tough, and I'm strong, and don't project any kind of sexist imagery on me." At least maybe she interrupts that image a little bit.

Brian Lehrer: We'll be noting in our next segment, which is going to be about the Virginia governor's race, that Trump did not endorse the female Republican candidate there. That's coming up in a second, but just one more question for you, Nancy. Would you give us a thought about the early voting? The number that I saw for total votes was over a million, which even though it hasn't been getting as much press as the early voting surge in New York City, looking at the proportion of the New York City vs. New Jersey statewide population, it would be about the same percentage. That's a lot of early votes, isn't it?

Nancy Solomon: Yes, it's a lot of early votes. This is historically not a high-turnout election in an off year. It's not the kind of numbers that we see in presidential elections, so, yes, that's a lot of votes. Registered Democrats lead Republicans by a very high percentage. 51% of those early votes were from Democrats. Doesn't mean they're all voting for Mikie Sherrill, I should point out, but it's a good-- the Democratic Party in the state is very happy about the fact that 51% of the turnout in early voting was Democratic, and then 28% were Republicans, and then independents made up another 20%. That's a big advantage for Democrats going into today.

It amounts to 253,000 plus votes by mail and 46,000 in early voting, so that's a 300,000 advantage. I believe that Governor Murphy had, I think, 266,000 going into the 2021 election day, he had that advantage. Mikie Sherrill has outperformed him and outperformed Kamala Harris's early voting edge in 2024. The Democrats that I've talked to in the last few days, they're very happy about these numbers. Very, very happy. Between that and the very polished Get Out The Vote campaign-- Not campaign, but what's the word? Get Out The Vote operation that the Sherrill campaign has, they're feeling good. We know the poll numbers are very, very close. You'd be a fool to make any kind of prediction at this point.

Brian Lehrer: WNYC's Nancy Solomon, host of the monthly Ask Governor Murphy call-in show. I'm sure next time it's going to be, "Ask Governor Murphy About the Election Results." You have a date for that yet, by the way?

Nancy Solomon: Yes, next Wednesday. Yes, a week from tomorrow.

Brian Lehrer: Okay, we'll be listening. Nancy, thanks for today.

Nancy Solomon: Thanks, Brian.

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