[MUSIC]

Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning again, everyone. After an hour of closing arguments from all nine candidates in the Democratic primary for mayor who had qualified for one of the debates, we will talk now to WNYC senior political reporter Brigid Bergin about what we just heard, about the turnout and demographic analysis of early voting, which ended yesterday. She's been reporting on that, and the final poll of the campaign just out this morning with various kinds of surprising results, I would say.

We're inviting your calls and texts. Our caller category today is anyone who has not yet voted but plans to vote on primary day tomorrow. 212-433-WNYC. Did anything you heard from the candidates in their closing argument appearances last hour inform how you might rank people tomorrow, or just jump out at you for a comment or a question or anything else for Brigid, 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692, call or text. Happy day before primary day, Brigid.

Brigid Bergin: Hey, Brian, happy day before primary day to you.

Brian Lehrer: Before we break down your reporting on early voting, if you were listening to the candidates' closing arguments just now, did anyone make news to your ear?

Brigid Bergin: Well, I thought there were several striking things. The first thing that I want to say off the top, which is less about what the candidates were pitching about themselves or the positions they took, but just I think really important information for voters and for our listeners to understand. Brad Lander made the comment that he was hoping that either he or Assemblymember Mamdani would be victorious tomorrow night, just to level-set expectations.

It is highly unlikely, unless a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, that we will know who won this thing tomorrow night. We will likely know who's leading and by how much, but the first ranked tally is not scheduled until next Tuesday, July 1st. That's not a problem with the Board of Elections. As you know, Brian, I've reported on lots of those. That is not an issue there. That is just the way it is scheduled.

For people who are looking to see those results and maybe wake up Wednesday morning to a headline that says someone is leading, but we don't have a winner, that is not a sign that anything is wrong. That's just the way they have planned to do it. That's because ballots can continue to come in legally until the Tuesday after Election Day, mail ballots, absentee ballots, and that's part of why we won't be doing that rank tally until July 1st.

Brian Lehrer: Right, they just have to be postmarked. If you're sitting on a mail-in ballot, folks, it just has to be postmarked by tomorrow. Brigid is explaining why that means that the final tally won't be known for another week after tomorrow. Brigid, what will we know tomorrow? Will they announce who is leading after Round 1 of the counting in this ranked-choice formula? Maybe we'll go over the ranked-choice formulation again as we go here, but will they announce who's leading after Round 1? Will that include all the early voting and the mail-in ballots that have been received so far?

Brigid Bergin: What we're going to know tomorrow night is what people listed as their first choice. Essentially, the first tally. Before any candidates are eliminated, all first-choice votes from voters, in-person votes during all of early voting, the nine days of early voting, and on primary day, as well as mail ballots, either absentee or vote-by-mail ballots that have been received and canvassed traditionally, the Friday before primary day. Things that were received and processed by the Board of Elections to make sure they don't need any sort of curing, because maybe somebody forgot to sign it or something that is correctable, received by last Friday. It won't be all of them. As I said, more ballots will come in. That's why we won't get that ranked tally until a week later.

Brian Lehrer: Early voting in the mayoral primary is over. More than 380,000 New Yorkers cast ballots, you reported. Well, we should take a minute to acknowledge that 380,000 early voters is a big deal, right? That's good turnout for New York City in a primary.

Brigid Bergin: Yes, that's more than double what we saw in 2021. Caveat, caveat, caveat. 2021 was a very different year. We were coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. A lot of people were voting by mail in a volume that is much higher than what we're seeing in terms of voting by mail this year, and yet these numbers are definitely up. The highest turnout assembly district that we reported last week, on the fourth day of early voting, is still the highest turnout assembly district that we will be reporting on the ninth day of early voting.

That's Assembly District 52 in Brooklyn. That's the downtown Brooklyn district near Borough Hall. It always has a lot of turnout. I spoke to one of the leaders of their political club there, the independent neighborhood Democrats who talked about how this process-- they start back in February with a whole complicated endorsement and interview process, and then they pick their candidates. Then they're out there campaigning and leafleting and, really, a whole "get out the vote" strategy that goes on for months.

That's part of what they attribute the high turnout to in that district. Notably, they endorse Brad Lander as their number one. We are seeing high turnout also in areas where there are a lot of younger voters in that Fort Greene area. We've seen high turnout in this primary. Now, I've talked to some analysts who say, "We still don't know." As you made the point when we were talking this morning, Brian, we don't know if these young voters are new young voters or new voters in general, first-time voters.

We're doing some of that analysis now, or are these people who would have voted on primary day anyhow, and they're just taking advantage of the fact that they could vote for nine days before primary day and avoid the 100-degree temperatures. In the final analysis, I think we still have some questions about, has the overall electorate grown? Will we see more people turning out for this primary, or are we seeing people changing their behavior? That'll be part of what we can talk more accurately about once we see what the turnout looks like tomorrow.

Brian Lehrer: Right, and I guess if that demographic analysis that you reported that it was a higher percentage of young voters than in past early voting seasons, which would obviously help Mamdani, was that big turnout of younger voters, just people who would have voted anyway or have voted in the past, I should say, but just moved to early voting this year because they were enthusiastic, or is it new voters? Of course, if they are new voters to any meaningful degree, that's certainly very good for Mamdani. As you say, we won't know that until at least tomorrow night.

Brigid Bergin: I've been working with Joe Hong, who's our data reporter in the WNYC and Gothamist newsroom. We're crunching those numbers today. We are going to have another story up on Gothamist today, but we just got the data last night. We are working our way through it. I think we'll be able to say a little bit more, but we're still tweaking the numbers now.

Brian Lehrer: Let's get some listener comments in here. A lot coming in about Cuomo one way or another, Mamdani one way or another. Listener writes, "I'm planning to rank Lander and then Mamdani, not Cuomo, but thought I'd listen carefully to him. I didn't hear him say affordability, and he still mispronounced Mamdani's name," because he said it, "Mamdummy," I did that on purpose, "and was vague on Bibi defense. He seems like he's coasting," still Cuomo, "and that's irritating and disrespectful to New Yorkers."

On the other hand, somebody wrote, "Zohran sounded like he was reading from his campaign flyer. Disappointed in that. Do not understand cross-endorsements. Just stand up for yourself. Lander for me." Another one, "I was a 'never Cuomo never,'" they wrote, Mamdani, Democratic primary voter, "but just now, Senator Ramos' courageous and sobering dose of reality, following many similar personal conversations over the past week, has convinced me to rank Cuomo number one. She really told it like it is." I think we have the opposite of that. Somebody on the phones. Oh, maybe not. Austin in Greenpoint, you're on WNYC. Hi, Austin.

Austin: Oh, hello. Hear me?

Brian Lehrer: I hear you.

Austin: Amazing. Do you want me to just speak, or do you have a question for me?

Brian Lehrer: No, no, go ahead. You called us to my very general question. I think you told our screener something you want to say, so it's up to you.

Austin: Yes, absolutely. Thank you so much. Most years in a primary, I'll vote early. This year, actually, we were expecting the birth of our kid on the first day of early voting. For that reason, we requested mail-in ballots. We greeted him on Friday, so we haven't cast our ballots yet. We'll probably be doing that today, and mailing it in along with everything else that we're doing right now.

The vote that I'm going to be doing, I take a slightly different strategy. I want to see my vote counted five times. I'm hoping that every single one of my five votes will count. For that reason, I'm ranking them in ascending order of expected vote count. I'm starting with Blake, then I'm doing Myrie, then I'm doing Lander, then I'm doing Adams, and then I'm doing Mamdani, who's, I guess, actually, my number one, but he's my number five.

Brian Lehrer: You want to stop Cuomo, it sounds like.

Austin: Yes, I do. I do. I was pretty disappointed with everything that we've seen from the last 15-plus years of him being in our lives, especially just on your interview with him. I felt that even his response about Mamdani's legislative record was kind of pathetic. He was uncertain how consistent of a legislator he was, if he was the worst one in Albany, or whatever. His campaign hasn't made the effort to even do that research to have a substantive answer. It's all just sort of vague.

Brian Lehrer: Austin, thank you very much for your call. We appreciate it. Good luck with your baby. Here's Jeff in Astoria, who, I think, is an anyone but Cuomo or Mamdani voter. Jeff, you're on WNYC. Thank you for calling in.

Jeff: Hi, good morning, Brian. Thank you. Thank you for doing this recap. Certainly, for me, I plan to vote tomorrow. It was very informative. My order is Adams, Lander, and then Myrie. While I am anyone but Cuomo, I found Mamdani's answer to your question, particularly as it related to "globalize the intifada," I found that to be lacking. I thought it was an opportunity for him to maybe better clarify or to better answer that question. I think he frankly dodged it.

While I am very much in anyone but Cuomo, that gives me certainly pause for concern. I also want to applaud you, Brian, for your questions to Jessica Ramos. I think your questioning of her and her position, given her personal experience, yet her support for Andrew Cuomo was just excellent journalism. My personal opinion is it would seem like her political career is over.

I don't know how anybody could ever vote for her again, given both her personal experience and positions, yet her steadfast support for Andrew Cuomo given his track record, particularly as it relates to sexual assault or sexual transgression allegations. Anyway, thank you for those excellent questions. Thank you for the segment. That's how I plan to vote tomorrow.

Brian Lehrer: Jeff, thank you for your call. Here's somebody who was impressed by Ramos. He told our screener as we continue to get diverse points of view. Lawrence, you're on WNYC, in Brooklyn. Hello.

Lawrence: Hey. Hi. Yes, I was impressed by Ms. Ramos. She's going to move up to fourth, maybe in my ranking. She wasn't on it before she spoke today. What I originally called about was I was a little disappointed you selected two candidates to ask questions about their position on the conflict in Israel and Israel in general right now. You started with Mr. Mamdani. He had to spend four minutes on that. I have to say, I don't care. They're not running for mayor of Tel Aviv or Gaza City or Ramla or Jenin or Jerusalem. I don't care. That was four minutes. I would have rather had Mr. Mamdani talk about New York City.

Brian Lehrer: Right. You know what? Frankly, I'm glad you brought this up because me too, and in all our--

Lawrence: Why'd you ask?

Brian Lehrer: Well, I'll tell you. I'll tell you. In all the coverage that we've done all year, including all the candidates, except Cuomo, who refused, coming on for one-on-one interviews, we knew there was some patter about their positions on the Middle East out there. What makes it local is anti-Semitism here. When Mamdani came on for his one-on-one, which was early in the season, as I recall, I didn't bring that up at all. I didn't want to emphasize it, but I think it would have been wrong to ignore the reality. I don't know what you've been seeing in your mailbox, but I've been hearing--

Lawrence: I listen to your show every day because I work nights, so I've heard all these shows.

Brian Lehrer: I know you've called in before. I think you'll back me up that we have not emphasized the Middle East and the mayor's race, but it is such a core part of the Cuomo endgame, with all of these flyers quoting Mamdani on saying it's okay to say "globalize the intifada," even though he doesn't say it and doesn't think it means violence, that he doesn't support a Jewish state, all this stuff. It's such a core part of their endgame, how they think they're going to win. Cuomo has his own vulnerabilities on it. For people who think he's too supportive of Netanyahu and that might risk New Yorkers in some way that I felt we needed to address the elephant in the room. Otherwise, we would be ignoring exactly the way that they're trying to win.

Lawrence: Understood. I will say as a closing comment, it's an elephant in the room because a lot of journalists, Mr. Lehrer, with respect, you included, make it the elephant in the room.

Brian Lehrer: Right. Again, as I said, I don't think we've made it the elephant in the room. I think the Cuomo campaign is making it the elephant in the room, and so it needed to be addressed in the closing argument season when they've made it the core of their closing argument. I appreciate your opinion. Keep calling us. Anybody else who has an opinion on that, welcome to chime in as well. Text it to 212-433-WNYC. Brigid, for you as a reporter, what's your take on that on the way the Cuomo campaign has been ending and the Mamdani campaign in this respect? It's a fair topic that the caller raises. We agonized over the judgment of whether to emphasize that with the two of them because of how it's ending.

Brigid Bergin: Brian, I think you are not putting out the messaging of the campaigns. None of us are. As journalists, we have an obligation to report what the candidates say are their positions. The former governor gave a speech that he described anti-Semitism as the issue in this race. I think it's difficult not to have a conversation about that. I thought it was important also to hear your conversation with Cuomo on our air, which we would have loved to have had more of.

Talking about some of the positions he's taken, not being willing to commit to a two-state solution is something I think people will consider newsworthy. That will resonate and turn off some voters, or will be important to others. I think also talking about the work that he had signed up to do to defend the Israeli prime minister against accusations of war crimes, it's something that The New York Times covered. It got some attention, but that certainly didn't dominate the race. I think reminding people of the full history of that is important.

Then for Assemblymember Mamdani, the question about this comment about globalizing intifada is something that it has been very much a part of the news cycle, because it did come up in a recent interview that was just last week. It's hard for people to ignore that since that is such a charged expression for so many of our listeners, so many voters. I think we may not want to talk about some of these issues since they don't always feel directly related to picking up the garbage or balancing a budget, but they do reflect what people in our very global city are thinking about and feeling and issues that may be involved with how they make up their minds. I think they're fair game for this kind of conversation.

Brian Lehrer: We'll continue with more with Brigid Bergin and more with you. We will get into that final poll today, which was very interesting. I did ask a few of the candidates about it and what it reflects about the thinking of voters in the city as we go into primary day tomorrow. Maybe this will also inform some of your choices as well. So many people, Brigid, calling in and saying, "Oh, I've been agonizing over my vote, and I don't know, and I'm still making up my mind." We'll talk about that and more when we come back.

[MUSIC]

Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. After our one-hour special edition to open the program today, closing arguments by all nine candidates who were qualified for one of the debates, the campaign finance board debates in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York. We're talking about things they said and other things pertaining to the race. With early voting having ended yesterday, primary day tomorrow, the final poll out this morning with our senior politics reporter, Brigid Bergin, and with you. This final independent poll before Election Day. It's a PIX11/Emerson/The Hill poll showing Mamdani beating Cuomo 52% to 48% in a ranked-choice simulation. That would be on the eighth round of ranked-choice voting tabulations. How are campaigns and analysts interpreting that result?

Brigid Bergin: Well, I think I've seen some messaging from the Cuomo campaign saying that the real poll is obviously tomorrow, but I think it's probably a real boost for the Mamdani campaign. I covered both of the candidates yesterday. Former Governor Cuomo was with some union supporters in the morning. He went to a large Black church in Brooklyn to start the day, and then also attended an event in Borough Park, where he's received some support and some recent support, and I think hoping to turn out voters in both of those areas, which will be helpful for him.

I also went to a rally last night organized by the Working Families Party, where there was a tremendous amount of energy, and a lot of very young volunteers getting ready to hit the streets because they see this as a race that's tightening. I think what's so fascinating, Brian, when you look from Round 1 to Round 8, perhaps it gives us a sense of what we might be seeing tomorrow night, which is what looks like roughly a three-point difference between Mamdani and Cuomo, with Cuomo just ahead by three points. One, I think that that signals how close it will need to be on Tuesday night for there to be a shift by the end of a ranked-choice tally. If there's, say, a 10-point margin, it might be much harder for any candidate just to close in on what will likely be a Cuomo lead. If it's in that 3.5-point range, the potential is there.

Brian Lehrer: One of the findings of this poll was Cuomo beating Mamdani around 60% to 40% among Black voters, also by around that margin among Latino voters, and also around that margin, 60% to 40% among those without four-year college degrees. I'm curious if you've been following the polls all along, if that's a switch, clearly, given how much income and other kinds of inequality tracked by race. Why do you think that poll finding is? Since it's the opposite of the Working Family Party slate's argument that they're the ones who represent the working class. Unless if you break it down by age, the preference for Mamdani among younger voters and Cuomo among older voters is so strong that it negates these other demographics.

Brigid Bergin: Yes, I think some of the demographics have been consistent. Cuomo had support from Black voters in most of the polls, and I believe also with Hispanic voters. The four-year college degree, I haven't been tracking that. I think, to your point, that we have seen this incredible delta of support between younger voters and older voters. That may be part of what we're seeing there. I think what's also striking is the gender gap between these voters, that it's actually men that support Mamdani by a bigger percentage, 56% to 44%, whereas women are leaning more towards Cuomo, 52% to 48%.

Obviously, we have talked about the sexual harassment scandals. There are some very vocal women who would be very opposed to him returning to elected office, and yet this poll is showing that there are many voters who are women that are potentially reconciling that in some way. The same way we heard State Senator Jessica Ramos make the case that, no, these things are not okay, but that's a societal problem, and he's the person who has the experience to lead in this moment.

Brian Lehrer: Few more callers. Amy in Brooklyn, you're on WNYC. Hi, Amy.

Amy: Hi, Brian. Thanks for taking my call. My first choice and my "never Cuomo" have never changed. All of this discussion on the air and with other people over the last few weeks has made me move from my second choice, which was the aspirational candidate that I was choosing, Mamdani, to putting Adrienne Adams second because a vote for Mamdani might end up being a vote for Cuomo. Mamdani, while I really love everything he stands for, doesn't have legislation in place to make any of the changes he wants. I'm afraid that that will mean another 10 years of someone like Giuliani if he can't affect any change, and people end up having a retaliation vote or a vote that wants to cancel their last vote in the next election.

Brian Lehrer: Amy, thank you very much. Larry, with, I think, a different point of view, in Manhattan, you're on WNYC. Hi, Larry.

Larry: Hi, Brian and Brigid. Andrew Cuomo is not going to get my vote again. That's only dangers of early voting. If you vote, you can't change your mind because this morning, you asked him a question about-- and I learned that he is on the defense team for Benjamin Netanyahu, the war criminal, defend him at the ICC.

Brian Lehrer: War criminal, according to you. It hasn't been adjudicated, but go ahead.

Larry: I was shocked when I heard that.

Brian Lehrer: Uh-huh.

Larry: Sorry?

Brian Lehrer: Go ahead.

Larry: That's when I learned that this morning when you ask him, I never heard it before. When I heard that, I was shocked to my core. There goes that vote. That vote is coupled down the drain. How many candidates are there? I will even rank him number 11, so Adrienne Adams--

Brian Lehrer: Who are you ranking first? Go ahead. Adrienne Adams. Go ahead.

Larry: It was him first, then Adrienne Adams, then Myrie, and just there, but now, Ms. Adams has been bumped up number one.

Brian Lehrer: Larry, thank you very much. As we start to run out of time, Brigid, we ended there with somebody who was going to vote for Mamdani, now leaving him off her ballot the previous caller. Somebody who was going to vote for Cuomo, now leaving him off his ballot, that last caller. Just an indication, I think, of how much ambivalence there is in the elected. Obviously, there are people who feel strongly. Obviously, there's a movement that really likes Mamdani. Obviously, there are a lot of people who trust Cuomo because what they see as a positive and trustworthy history, but a lot of people who are not only undecided but really ambivalent.

Brigid Bergin: Yes, I think it also just speaks to both the opportunity and the challenge of ranked-choice voting as opposed to an election where you're just going in. You're going to vote for this one person. You've made up your mind. You've dismissed your other options. This is an opportunity to think, "Okay, who's my best choice? Who's the person I want the most?" Then fill out those other four slots based on who else you could live with, or like a previous caller we heard who wants to just see his ballot make it through the whole process. Maybe you reverse-engineer it, whatever you like to do.

It is more to weigh because you have to consider who are these other candidates, what do they bring to the table, what are the policies, what is the style that you support, and then make those decisions. Again, I think it's both an opportunity and a pretty weighty obligation that we are asking primary voters. It'll be another thing that will be interesting to see at the end of all this, when we do have results to see how many people actually went and filled out their full five slots. Do people go in and decide to rank five, or do they go in and just rank the one? Where are people doing those things? There'll be lots to look at once we get these results in.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, and we don't talk much about polls on this show. We did mention this one this morning. The lesson from it for me is just to go vote, because what the poll shows is that it's going to be a close race. Whether somebody's up by a couple of points, a small number of points in Round 1, or whether this modeling of the ranked-choice voting out to the eighth round winds up in another result. What we know is that this appears to be close.

Listeners, do last-minute research. If you have not yet voted, it's still not too late for you to google things if you have particular questions about their particular positions. To the caller, Lawrence, who wasn't happy that we talked some about the Middle East this morning with Mamdani and Cuomo rather than city issues, go back and listen to all the individual segments that we've done on the candidates and the city issues over time, which is the overwhelming percentage of what we did and what I wished that we could stick to, except for the way the Cuomo campaign is so emphasizing the Middle East that I felt both candidates needed to address it.

On education, on transit, on climate, on public health, on child care, all these other things that we've done distinct segments on. If these are your issues, the candidates have positions on these issues. I don't expect you to go back and listen to a lot of 20-minute segments from the show, but you can google things and find out their positions. What's the issue that's most of interest to you? You can still find out what that is if you're still undecided, if you're a registered Democrat, and then vote tomorrow. Brigid, you wanted to say your last thing?

Brigid Bergin: Just one quick point. The candidate who we are not talking about, who is running for mayor for reelection, is Eric Adams. Obviously, we're not talking about him because he's not running in the primary. I think part of the conversation related to the Middle East and anti-Semitism also stems from the fact that he has made it such an issue. Part of what we were seeing with Cuomo positioning around it was looking ahead to the general election.

Brian Lehrer: Good point.

Brigid Bergin: Just adopting that frontrunner status, the presumed victory, and campaigning against Adams.

Brian Lehrer: In fact, didn't Adams take out an anti-Semitism party line to run on?

Brigid Bergin: He has two potential party lines. One of them is end anti-Semitism. My understanding is I think, at this point, he is not allowed to have two party lines. There may be some court dispute over which one he ends up with.

Brian Lehrer: I see.

Brigid Bergin: That certainly was one of them.

Brian Lehrer: He's trying, yes. Last thing, and we have the city's Office of Emergency Management Commissioner Zach Iscol standing by to talk about the heat and give our listeners advice on staying safe and keeping loved ones safe. We are expecting the sweltering heat across the city tomorrow, even more so than today. Are the campaigns doing anything specific to prepare for that?

Brigid Bergin: Well, I know that I talked to some of the campaigns that plan to have ice water and Gatorade and ice packs and coolers, particularly for their volunteers who are going to be out there. The Board of Elections is similarly planning to do that for poll workers. A lot of the poll workers, we thank you so much for what you do. It's a very long day. A lot of the people who do it tend to be older.

The Board of Elections is also planning to have fans at places that don't have air conditioning. Hopefully, that will help mitigate some of that. Voters can also try to go earlier in the morning or later in the evening to avoid waiting in a line in the midday sun. I don't think we should be shocked to see candidates out there also maybe offering people some cold water and refreshments.

Governor Hochul signed a bill actually just this past weekend, repealing a law that used to ban something called "line warming." If anybody is a Larry David fan, it was something that came up in an episode of Larry David about line warming in Georgia when he gave a bottle of water to a woman who was waiting in line and then was arrested and yadda, yadda, yadda, Larry David.

We had a similar law here in New York that made it something you were subject to potential criminal prosecution for handing out refreshments to people waiting in line. The Brooklyn NAACP sued over it. Then just more recently, Governor Hochul signed this law repealing that portion of election law. I think people, particularly who have lots of money, might be spending on trying to keep voters feeling a little bit more comfortable as they wait.

Brian Lehrer: WNYC senior politics reporter Brigid Bergin. I have a feeling we'll be speaking a little bit over the next few days.

Brigid Bergin: [laughs] I look forward to it.

 

Copyright © 2025 New York Public Radio. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use at www.wnyc.org for further information.

New York Public Radio transcripts are created on a rush deadline, often by contractors. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of New York Public Radio’s programming is the audio record.