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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. The road to control of Congress runs across the Mario Cuomo Bridge. One of the most contested House seats in the country this November is expected to be in New York's 17th congressional district. Republican Mike Lawler is running for reelection. Most of the voters in the district north of New York City live in Westchester and Rockland, the counties on either side of the Mario Cuomo Tappan Zee Bridge. Hello, Tarrytown. Hello, Nyack.

The district also covers all of Putnam County and some of Dutchess, a little more to the north. What kind of Democrat is best positioned to win in a swing district like that after two years of the Trump administration? What might we learn from the results of the Democratic primary there about where the party's voters are on the scale from Democratic socialist to third-way centrist?

Last night, three Democrats vying for a shot to take on current Republican Congressman Lawler, army veteran Cait Conley, Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson, and Tarrytown trustee Effie Phillips-Staley faced off in a debate at Manhattanville University. There are more candidates than them, but these are the three who made the cut, who qualified for the debate.

Joining us now to break down some of the biggest local issues in that race and how this district fits into the national politics of this year's midterm elections, and to listen to some clips with us are Jeff Coltin, editor-in-chief of City & State, and Timmy Facciola, independent journalist who writes the Substack, Judge Street Journal. He's all over this race. Jeff, welcome back to WNYC. Timmy, welcome.

Jeff Coltin: Thank you so much.

Timmy Facciola: Thank you.

Jeff Coltin: Happy to be talking about the hottest race in New York.

Brian Lehrer: Ha, and maybe in the country for Congress. Lawler beat Democrats in the last two elections. Jeff, for a little context and for listeners outside of NY-17, can you talk to us about how purple this district really is or isn't?

Jeff Coltin: Yes, absolutely. This was Sean Patrick Maloney's district before, then he lost to Mike Lawler. Then, Mondaire Jones, there was quite a drama switcheroo there. Mondaire Jones lost to Mike Lawler. Even though this is a Democratic presidential voting district, the voters prefer the Democrats when it comes to presidential races. Lawler has won twice in a row. Republican Lawler has won twice in a row here. Everybody credits him, honestly, for being a very good and talented politician who knows how to win over Democrats come to his side.

Democrats have a challenge here, and they're trying something different. The final three leading candidates now, after Timmy broke the news yesterday that Pat Chatzky dropped out, it's three women. Their Democrats are going to have a woman go up against Mike Lawler. They all really present different profiles and different angles and different ways that they say they are the one that can take down this Republican and flip a seat for the Democrats in New York.

Brian Lehrer: Right, so for just a little bit more context, Timmy, before we get to the clips, the race is being framed as coming down to between Phillips-Staley, a more left-wing progressive, and two centrist Democrats, Conley and Davidson. Do you think that characterization is accurate?

Timmy Facciola: Yes, I do. For the bulk of the race, the establishment, both locally and nationally, has been interested in either Cait Conley or Beth Davidson. Then, Effie Phillips-Staley has really started to make some noise recently after she was condemned for a Hasan Piker appearance, joining him on his Twitch stream by the Westchester County Democratic Committee. That really was a turning point for her and skyrocketed her on the national left scene and gave her a lot of bona fides on Twitter. The question is, is that going to translate into the district electorally?

Brian Lehrer: The first question to all the candidates was on how they plan to beat Lawler. They each pointed to their success in coalition-building. Let's take a little over 30 seconds of each candidate's response in the order they were asked. Here is Cait Conley, an army veteran who is positioning herself as a political outsider.

Cait Conley: Over 50% of households in NY-17 are either veterans, the family of veterans, first responders, or family of first responders. My ability to connect with these folks and to win them over and their trust is just different. It's going to make a difference come November. We have seen as Mike Lawler has faced and beaten politicians twice. If we want a different kind of outcome in November, we need a different kind of Democrat. I have shown my ability to build a coalition across this district. I am the only one on this stage that has earned endorsements from elected officials in all four counties.

Brian Lehrer: Conley was actually quoting Lawler there on that stat. Timmy, want to talk to us about the veteran and first responder community in NY-17? It's relatively a lot of people, right? Are they putting support behind Cait Conley?

Timmy Facciola: Yes, NY-17 is a really interesting district because on the Westchester side of the river, you have a lot of liberal enclaves. Then on the Rockland side, you have a lot of first responders who commute into the city. Culturally, it's more conservative. Mike Lawler is from Rockland County. A lot of his political strength comes from his ties to the district. The argument that Cait is making is that if we can present a veteran candidate in the mold of Pat Ryan, a very successful New York congressman, just one district to the north, then we can chip off some of Mike Lawler's supporters and bring them towards the Democratic side.

Brian Lehrer: On this first-responder thing, you mean a lot of police officers and firefighters in New York City commute from Rockland?

Timmy Facciola: Yes, and Rockland County is the forgotten county in the district because it doesn't have a single-seat train ride into the city. A lot of Rockland County residents, they're upset about congestion pricing. They think of city politics with a little bit of skepticism. It can be helpful, some operatives think, to have a candidate like Cait to meet them where they are.

Brian Lehrer: All right. Next up, Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson talked about her coalition-building and why she might be best positioned to beat Mike Lawler. Let's take a listen to 40 seconds of her.

Beth Davidson: Building coalitions around issues like clean water and reproductive rights and health care and gun safety. I'm proud to have collected more petition signatures than anyone else on this stage from almost 400 volunteers who went out and knocked doors and gathered petitions for me. This is also a four-county strong coalition that I'm proud to build, and that I also have 3,000 in district donors. Those are people that will go out and knock doors for me and vote for me. That's the kind of coalition that beats Mike Lawler in November. I can tell you. I've known him for almost 10 years, and he would like nothing more than to run against a Biden administration insider who just moved to this district.

Brian Lehrer: Oh, Timmy, dig, burn, "A Biden administration insider who just moved to the district." She's referring to Cait Conley, right, who held national security posts under President Biden? What kind of coalition is she touting there that would be different from Conley's?

Timmy Facciola: Yes, that was a really eye-opening moment to begin the debate because up until then, Conley and Davidson had yet to really throw jabs directly at one another. Davidson's coalition, she's a county legislator, so she's more deeply tied to the Democratic machine locally. She also has a lot of support from older white residents. The typical voter in the district is often older, white women. She's very good among that base. The question, and Lawler certainly hoping to frame her this way, is she too far left to win the people in Rockland that Conley is vying for?

Brian Lehrer: Jeff, what was that like for you? You were one of the moderators of the debate last night. Listening to those two, and we're going to get to the more left-wing candidate in just a second, but those two who are more in the center-left lane going after each other.

Jeff Coltin: That's right. It's funny. There's a lot of alignment on policy between the two. I don't know if they disagreed on really anything, actually, except, interestingly, congestion pricing. Beth Davidson said, "Yes, I like congestion pricing. It's a good idea." Cait Conley said, "No, I don't like congestion pricing. We need to eliminate it." That's one disagreement. Other than that, they basically seem to agree on everything.

What's the difference between them is more style. Sure enough, yes, Conley is saying, "I'm an outsider." I am an army veteran." Whereas Davidson is playing the, like, "I've been in politics." She talked a lot about things that she did on the Rockland County legislature, saying, "Okay, I helped fund affordable housing in my legislative job here. I can do that again in Congress." A lot of agreement on the issues on almost everything, but it's really a stylistic difference between those two.

Brian Lehrer: I apologize because I really should have said in introducing the segment that you were one of the co-moderators of the debate last night. You're not just editor-in-chief of City & State. That's some of the context, listeners, as we are breaking down last night's debate among three leading candidates for the Democratic nomination to go up against Republican Congressman Mike Lawler in NY-17. Both sides of the Tappan Zee Mario Cuomo Bridge, you might say.

Listeners in that district, we can take some phone calls, I guess, for now, especially Democrats. We can do a little electioneering. I know the primary isn't until June, but this is a big moment in that race after that debate last night. If you're for one or the other or the other, you can call in, or if you have a question, if you're starting to get engaged, and you want to clarify something about who these three are, now that Peter Chatzky dropped out. That's the other news from yesterday in this race.

It was going to be four people in the debate, and then one of the prominent candidates dropped out, so it's these three. Who has a question? Who has a favorite? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692, for our guests, Jeff Coltin, who is the editor-in-chief of City & State and was a co-moderator last night, and Timmy Facciola, an independent journalist who writes the Substack, Judge Street Journal, and is very involved in covering this race. All right, we have a clip now of the third candidate, the one we haven't played yet, Phillips-Staley on building a progressive coalition that she says would be best positioned to beat Mike Lawler. Let's take a listen to 30 seconds from her.

Effie Phillips-Staley: Because we're not paying attention to all the communities that we need to be paying attention to, the working class, people under 30, progressive founders, people of color, all who have felt disenfranchised by this party and by the process. The regular game plan is not going to win. We are going to keep losing unless we can turn out that kind of vote. That is entirely what my campaign is designed around.

Brian Lehrer: Earlier, I'll note in her opening statement at the beginning of the debate, Effie Phillips-Staley talked about her connection to the Hispanic community in Tarrytown. Timmy, want to tell us about that and how she identifies or how to put her on a right-left scale? Is she DSA like Zohran Mamdani, or talk to people who don't know Effie Phillips-Staley?

Timmy Facciola: Sure. She, as far as I know, doesn't have the backing of the DSA, nor is a member, but she shares a lot of the same politics with them. She's trying something really interesting in this race. The common sense is that someone with as left politics as she does can't win in NY-17, but she's saying, "No, no, they just haven't tried to mobilize the voters that I'm trying to mobilize." NY-17 is a bit of a tale of two cities, where it features very affluent towns like Chappaqua and some of the Northern Westchester river towns.

At the same time, there are a lot of pockets of poverty. What Effie is trying to do is mobilize those poorer voters, who are typically not active in these NY-17 races, and use them to give herself a shot at a left-wing lane in the race, using the fundraising of the national left-wing movement, appearing on shows like Majority Report and Breaking Points to boost her national profile as a chance for people, if they want to litigate their grievances against the Democratic establishment, to back her in NY-17, one of the highest profile races in the country.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take a phone call. John in Rockland, who says he was recently chair of the Democratic Party in Rockland County. John, did I get that right? You're on WNYC. Hi.

John: That's correct. Good morning.

Brian Lehrer: What'd you got?

John: Happy to be here. I just wanted to point out that there are many Democrats in Rockland who are a bit skeptical of Cait Conley, because just before she announced for Congress, she changed her registration to be a Democrat. She wasn't registered in any party. She just dropped in on the scene. It's unclear who actually is behind her. She's got a lot of wealthy donors, hedge fund donors, defense industry donors. She is the candidate of the Israel lobby. That's raised a lot of eyes in Rockland County.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you for your call. Jeff, we're going to get to the Israel issue with some clips in just a second because I see that's being widely reported as the issue on which they were the most different. Are you familiar with that assertion there that she just recently registered as a Democrat?

Jeff Coltin: Yes, and she also just recently moved back to the district. She has family roots in the district. She grew up in the Hudson Valley, I believe, actually across the river in the 18th. She grew up in the area, but then she's been gone for about 20 years. Of course, she says, "Well, I was in the military, and then I was serving the Biden administration." That's also her explanation, I believe, for being not registered as a Democrat.

I believe she was just independent and not with the party. To me, those are pretty fair excuses of saying, "Well, that's why I wasn't living in the district, and that's why I wasn't a registered Democrat, because I was in national security, because I was in the military," but that said, it is quite a contrast with her two leading opponents who have been in the district for decades and longstanding Democrats. Yes, Cait is being considered somewhat of a local outsider in this race. She certainly has been getting a lot of attention, yes, from outside money.

In fact, we asked about Super PACs spending at the debate last night. Both Beth Davidson and Effie Phillips-Staley basically said, "We hate it. We don't want any of that money in the race." Cait Conley said, "Look, this is the law. Citizens United is the law. Mike Lawler is going to have a whole bunch of money coming in from outside groups, so Democrats need to accept it, too. We can accept that help from Super PACs." Yes, difference of opinion there as well.

Brian Lehrer: Matt in Cortlandt Manor, you're on WNYC. Hi, Matt.

Matt: Hi, Brian. Thank you for taking my call. A little background. I just graduated college. I'm a 22-year-old guy. I live in Northern Westchester, Cortlandt Manor. I was fully supporting Peter Chatzky before he dropped out. What caught my eye about him most on the topic of campaign finance reform was the fact that he was fully funding his own campaign. No outside money whatsoever.

Obviously, I understand why he dropped out. Those are some concerning posts he had online. I think he was right to do so. I went into last night with an open mind. I watched on Zoom. I'd heard a little bit about Cait, a little bit about Beth. I did not hear a lot about Effie Phillips before the debate. To be honest with you, what I came away was how impressed I was with Effie Phillips.

You talk about the type of crowd that was in that room. Those were members of the Democratic Party. They're probably members of the committees in the local town. They're all party insiders, if you're at that watch party last night for the debate. The stances that she was taking in that room with Westchester Democrats, I was very impressed. It takes guts to say the things that she was saying last night.

I was also impressed with Beth. Beth is a moderate, right? She's from Rockland County. Some of the stances she was taking, she has a local touch on what's going on in her community. That's the thing I like about Beth. I like that about Effie Phillips, but I don't like that about Cait Conley at all. I understand her reasoning that she was in DC. She was in the military. To me, it feels like her family has a connection to the district. She moved to DC for 20 years. Now, she's going to come here and try and diagnose these problems in our district.

Brian Lehrer: All right, Matt, thank you for your take. Call us again. Let's go to these clips on Israel. Many of the issues that came up at the debate were national issues. Obviously, they're running for Congress. In this particular moment, all three candidates were very strongly against President Donald Trump's war in Iran and pushed back on Congressman Lawler's support for it. All three candidates also spoke against Trump's so-called Big Beautiful Bill and its cuts to Medicaid that they say affect the District. One area where differences emerged was on support for Israel. We'll go again in the order that the candidates were asked. Here's Cait Conley first, who, again, referenced her 16-year record in the army and then went on to say this.

Cait Conley: We have a responsibility to support the safety and security of Israel and the Jewish people. I think we also have a responsibility to push for a two-state solution so that all people can have safety and security. I do believe just as I am a proud American and pro-American, I can also criticize Trump and this government and what it does. I can be pro-Israel and say we need to have really hard conversations on how conflict is conducted.

Brian Lehrer: That's Cait Conley. Next up was Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson, who identified herself as Jewish. She said that. She began her answer by saying that NY-17 is about 20% Jewish and the eighth-largest Jewish community in the United States, and then went on to say this.

Beth Davidson: I do love Israel and yet disagree with so much of what the administration has done. I'd also say that Donald Trump has been far too weak to stand up to Bibi Netanyahu in ways that we should have been all of this time. Bringing home the hostages much earlier, bringing the conflict to a close much quicker. Too many people died both in Israel and in Palestine. I do also hope for a two-state solution, but we're not going to get there unless we engage other countries in the region and while we're also fighting another unnecessary war right next door.

Brian Lehrer: Both Conley and Davidson mentioning two-state solution in their answers. Finally, Effie Phillips-Staley went third. The Tarrytown village trustee. She began by talking about a recent trip to Israel and Palestine. She said that what she saw there was that Israel was creating apartheid conditions toward Palestinians, and then she went on to say this.

Effie Phillips-Staley: When people spoke to me, Israelis, former IDF members, Palestinians, they said the only thing that will stop this, that will stop what they called a genocide, is withholding aid to Israel, that that was the only thing, and only we had the power to do that. That's not to make people unsafe. That is to change the direction of a government that they described as becoming fascist. That is where, that is what I saw, and I could not live with myself if I did not say these things to this group.

Brian Lehrer: A different tone and a different emphasis, to be sure, from Conley and Davidson. Jeff, she cited that we already have a law to curtail funding to Israel known as Leahy's Law. What would she push for in Congress? If you're familiar, I realize you're a local New York journalist, but what is Leahy's Law?

Jeff Coltin: Yes, if I put on my Washington hat, I believe the Leahy Law is an amendment in Congress that refers to withholding aid for governments that have been incredibly accused of war crimes. I might be not exact on that, but it's that idea that there should be standards attached to giving international defense aid. It is a talking point among members of Congress on the left, like Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has also been talking about the Leahy Law, the Leahy Amendment, lately as a way to basically say that, yes, aid should be withheld to Israel under our current standards.

It is interesting that Effie Phillips-Staley is going this direction. I, of course, think about the New York City mayoral race. It's a very different voter base in this suburban district versus the city. However, we had Zohran Mamdani stake the furthest left, the most anti-Israel position consistently and firmly in the Democratic primary, and it really worked out for him.

Brian Lehrer: Certainly, there's a lot of discussion in the Jewish community about how to feel about Israel right now, but the particular Jewish community that is so concentrated in Rockland, Timmy, is quite politically conservative. A lot of Orthodox communities there, right?

Timmy Facciola: Yes, yes, and this is the $64,000 question of this race is, how are those Orthodox and Hasidic communities in Rockland going to vote? Last cycle, they were behind Lawler. From what I've understood, it's not sure if they're going to change. Beth is said to have the support of what's referred to as "the bloc" in Rockland County in the primary, at least. Now, some people don't think that that is enough for a reason to support her because they're still going to support Mike Lawler in the general election.

This is a district where it's really a question mark how it's going to receive Effie's stance on Israel. Just one cycle prior in NY-16, Jamaal Bowman lost against George Latimer, who was recruited by AIPAC to primary him. Now, this is a different district with a different electorate, and it's at a different point in time. Polling on Israel has changed considerably. NBC had a poll last month that said almost 4 in 10 American Jews think that Israel committed a genocide. It's not entirely clear how that's going to map onto this district. If there are any pollsters listening, I would love it if you could poll NY-17 on Israel because, really, that is the question mark.

Brian Lehrer: All right, pollsters, poll NY-17 on Israel. You have your marching orders. We hear there was difference between the candidates in the debate last night, at least between Effie Phillips-Staley and the other two most clearly. Let me sneak one more call in here because we had a couple of callers earlier who were anti-Cait Conley. Jill in Irvington, I think, is pro-Cait Conley. Jill, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Jill: Hi, can you hear me?

Brian Lehrer: Yes.

Jill: Oh, okay. Hi. Longtime listener, first-time caller. Yes, I am pro-Cait Conley simply because I think I have not-- I didn't watch the debate in full disclosure or listen to it, but I feel like she's the most moderate. A friend of mine who was also running, Jessica Reinmann, dropped out. All of her support and her views, I know well, is supporting Cait Conley. We're in Irvington, but we're moving to Sleepy Hollow before the election, so I will be voting for Cait Conley. I just think we need moderation here. Not anything too far left, and I feel like that's what she could hopefully deliver.

Brian Lehrer: All right, thank you for calling from Irvington. We're just about out of time. Timmy, you want to say what comes next in this race? I was surprised to this last night. A little surprised because it's relatively early compared to the voting, which is in June, so where do they go from here?

Timmy Facciola: Yes, so the next development is going to be, they just finished their Q1 of fundraising. They're about to start spending that cash on advertising and commercials, which is really a big thing in this district. Lawler, some say, cruised to victory last year because of some viral ads of Mondaire Jones. If candidates can leverage similarly compelling commercials in the next couple of months, I think the thing that puts this race on everybody's radar is they'll see YouTube videos everywhere. We've got a couple of more debates as the race comes closer. Now that it's a three-way race, it's going to be interesting to see how Beth and Cait distinguish themselves. They did so a little bit last night. Again, as Jeff said, it's more tone than substantive policy.

Brian Lehrer: Jeff, for people who want to go back and listen to the whole thing, you co-moderated it, is it online?

Jeff Coltin: Yes, it's going up on the Westchester County Democratic Party YouTube page. It should be up. Facebook page as well. It should be up either already or very soon. It was a 90-minute debate. Very substantive, if I do say so myself. Sure enough, this race is about to blow up. There's going to be outside spending. There's going to be a lot of attention within the district, within the region, and I think across the country. Now is the time to study up.

Brian Lehrer: Do you think this is a template race for how Democrats will decide to run strategically against Republicans in swing districts?

Jeff Coltin: Oh, I think so, yes. I think that, obviously, being within the New York media market often gives these races some national attention just on their own, but also as we described. This is an interesting microcosm of candidates that Democrats are considering running. You've got the lefty candidate who wants to reach people that have not been activated by the Democratic Party.

You've got the national security military veteran, which we've seen Democrats have a lot of success running candidates like Mikie Sherrill, like Abigail Spanberger. Then you've got Beth Davidson. You've got the classic local politician who says, "I've done well on the local office. Bring me up to Washington." I think there's all these different kinds of candidates. They're all running against each other in a competitive primary. It's fascinating.

Brian Lehrer: Jeff Coltin, editor-in-chief of City & State. He co-moderated last night's debate. Timmy Facciola, independent journalist who's all over this race. He writes the Substack, Judge Street Journal. Thank you both for coming on, on The Morning After.

Jeff Coltin: My pleasure.

Timmy Facciola: Thanks, Brian.

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