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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning again, everyone. Donald Trump, a Florida voter, says he will vote to uphold the six-week abortion ban in the state. He said that last Friday, one day after he said he's against the ban. Here's Trump last Thursday when asked by NBC News about the six-week ban versus a Florida abortion rights referendum that will be on the ballot in November.

Donald Trump: I am going to be voting that we need more than six weeks.

Brian Lehrer: That wasn’t quite an endorsement of the abortion rights referendum, but anti-abortion rights groups freaked out that he said he'd be voting that they need more than six weeks. The very next day, asked if he would vote for the abortion rights measure again, Trump said this.

Donald Trump: So, I'll be voting no.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. What just happened here in the context of the presidential race with abortion rights likely to drive so many voters to the polls to vote yes? Is it time to ask what was previously an unthinkable political question? Could Florida, after so many years as a solidly red state, be back in play as a swing state in this presidential election?

Let's take a closer look at the Florida referendum and the election year politics of the Sunshine State overall now with Grace Panetta, political reporter for The 19th, the news site named after the Nineteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution, which gave women the right to vote in this country in 1920, and Kimberly Leonard, Politico politics reporter in Florida and author of their Florida Playbook newsletter. Kimberly and Grace, thanks for coming on. Welcome to WNYC. Hello from New York.

Grace Panetta: Thank you for having me.

Kimberly Leonard: Hello.

Brian Lehrer: Grace, let me start with you. Let's take a closer look at the Florida referendum for everybody out there, especially those not in Florida, and the election year politics of the Sunshine State. Can you start by describing the Florida referendum itself? I see it's pegged to the Roe v. Wade standard. What does that mean, or what's the actual wording?

Grace Panetta: Sure, absolutely. This ballot measure, Amendment Four, would guarantee a right to abortion up until the point of fetal viability. It's similar to the language that we've seen other states use, particularly successful measures that have passed in Michigan and Ohio that guarantee that right to viability, obviously with additional exceptions to the threat to the life of the patient.

Brian Lehrer: The attack that Republican anti-abortion people often use, that Democrats want abortion rights up until the moment of birth, Trump in the campaign this year has even said they want abortion after birth, which, of course, is factually impossible, but this referendum would nullify that kind of attack that abortion rights right up until the moment of birth kind of attack.

Grace Panetta: Yes. Thinking in the context of what actually happens medically, abortion up until the moment of birth, or as you say, even after birth, is just simply not a thing. That does not happen in the way that Republicans describe it too. People who have abortions later in pregnancy often most of the time do so because of fatal fetal abnormalities or a threat to the life of the patient. Yes, exactly, this amendment would be in line with what the standard was under the Roe v. Wade decision.

Brian Lehrer: Tell us more about that life of the mother or health of the mother language in the referendum.

Grace Panetta: Like in a lot of other states and a lot of other ballot measures, the way they structure it is to protect-- Say, you have a right to abortion for any reason up until this point and then after that, if the patient's life is in danger or in some cases, fetal fatal abnormality, you can have care after that point. The problem, even under Roe v. Wade, is that many states had a strict cutoff at a certain week for any reason.

For example, this used to be the case in New York. You would have to travel out of state if you were in that situation to yet another state. We've seen more and more states update their language in the law and their ballot measure language to reflect that reality.

Brian Lehrer: Right. Abortion rights opponents sometimes support life of the mother exceptions but not health of the mother exceptions because they say those can be interpreted too broadly. It can refer to relatively minor health issues, so it can be used as an elastic clause. Where does this fall on that scale, would you say?

Grace Panetta: I would say on that point, I think what's interesting, what we've seen in the Florida and in other states that have passed abortion bans since the fall of Roe v. Wade is there have been these cases of fatal fetal abnormalities where the pregnancy is not viable, but yet, the patient can't decide whether to terminate or not because, for all intents and purposes, there may be still a heartbeat, something like that.

Specifically, the amendment would say that there's no law that should prohibit, penalize, delay, restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient's health as determined by the patient's healthcare provider. It's putting that responsibility, that onus, back on providers and patients.

Brian Lehrer: And enough flexibility. It sounds like, that it could be up to the judgment of the provider and the patient. Kimberly Leonard, Politico politics reporter in Florida, let me bring you into this. How's this referendum looking in the polls? Is it going to pass easily? Is it going to be close? What do you see?

Kimberly Leonard: Well, the first thing to note is that when abortion rights have gone ahead in other states, it's been because they've been supported. They've had a lower threshold that they've had to meet in Florida. You have to get 60% of votes to be able to get there, and it does look like we have that in Florida. One of the things to know about this state is that it tends to elect more conservative elected officials but then picks really progressive policies when they're put on the ballot. Everything from a $15 minimum wage to restoring voting rights for people who've been convicted of felonies.

We even have cannabis on the ballot for recreational reasons coming up in November. All of that does appear to pass as well. It looks like it's going to be there. The difficulty, though, is that Governor DeSantis is raising money to get people to vote against it. He's going to be advertising against it. He's going to be talking about it a lot. Since he hasn't spent the money yet, it's hard to know how that changes the polls, but as things stand now, it does appear poised for support from Floridians.

Brian Lehrer: Wow, over 60%, that would be. Yet, refuting the premise that I cited in the introduction, which I got from other reporting, you write Trump isn't in danger of losing Florida in November, underscored by the fact that neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, showed up at a Tuesday reproductive freedom rally in Florida. Give us your lay of the land on that.

Kimberly Leonard: Well, look, I live here in Florida. There is a lot more energy from the Democratic Party ever since Vice President Harris ascended to the top of the ticket. I've watched her for years talk about reproductive rights. She was much more comfortable on the issue than President Joe Biden has ever been, so they are energized about that idea. However, Democrats are starting from behind, essentially. They haven't gotten extra voter registration even with all the energy, they haven't raised a lot of money, and the vice president isn't campaigning here.

You know where she is campaigning? In the seven other states that they consider to be battlegrounds. Even though a lot of Florida Democrats will say, "Oh, yes, the state is in play," the rhetoric is beside the point. What I look at is the data, the data on voter registration, the spending. People have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in Florida to win here when it's competitive. The fact that that's not happening, to me, is the biggest data point that's significant.

Brian Lehrer: Well, Kimberly, you're the Florida reporter, but Grace, you're a political reporter for The 19th. I wonder if you've looked at this and have any similar or competing conclusions or speculation, because we're talking theoretically about, with a 60% standard for the referendum to pass, a lot of people who would be voting yes on abortion rights and also yes on Trump in order for both of those things or people to prevail.

Grace Panetta: Yes, that's absolutely right, Brian. In fact, there was a recent USA Today and Suffolk University poll from a few weeks ago that showed just under 60%, 58% of respondents say they support the amendment, 35% don't. A lot of those supporters of the amendment are also supporting President Trump, which it puts him in kind of an interesting position, I think, as a Florida resident, Florida voter.

It's really in line with what the results have been in a lot of other states. These amendments, because they're not partisan, they get a lot of their support from Republicans and independents. For that reason, there's also this delicate dance of obviously, Democrats want to make abortion a huge issue in races up and down the ballot, but the backwards of these amendments don't want to overtly politicize the amendments. They want to present them as non-partisan, cross-partisan amendments that get support from across the political spectrum.

Also, women voters that poll showed are really driving support for this amendment, regardless of party affiliation. Women voters of all demographics are going to be key in a state like Florida.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, I know some of you are in Florida, or others of you have ties to Florida. Who wants to call in and tell us what you're seeing in terms of the presidential race or the abortion rights referendum, or ask either of our guests a question? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. Call or text for Grace Panetta from The 19th, and Kimberly Leonard from Politico Florida. 212-433-9692.

Donald Trump, he's a Florida voter because his official address is at Mar-a-Lago. The first thing to know is Florida has a six-week abortion ban. Because Trump campaigned in 2016 on appointing Supreme Court justices who would overturn Roe, he kept his promise. Three such justices, and of course, they voted as predicted, and that allowed such a state law to pass. Even the question in Florida, the fact that reproductive rights at this level are a question in Florida is largely on him. Right, Kimberly?

Kimberly Leonard: Well, he wish it wasn't, right? I think in his mind, the deal was done with the anti-abortion movement when he gave them Roe v. Wade on a silver platter. What's been more difficult for him is having to respond to individual states that have restrictive abortion bans. He said a year ago when Governor DeSantis signed the six-week ban into law, he said he thought it was a terrible mistake and a terrible thing to do, and DeSantis attacked him over that. He said, "Well, you're not pro-life." It's ironic because it's this domino effect.

You have Trump appointed the judges who overturn Roe, giving Governor DeSantis the ability to then restrict abortion rights in Florida because he wanted to run to the right of Trump in the election, in the primary. The options that are before Trump, he says he wants more weeks, but that's not what's on the ballot in November. What's on the ballot is the viability standards with exceptions for health reasons as determined by providers, or a six-week ban that's currently in effect.

Now, if it doesn't pass, a legislature in the future could come back in and move the limits back or even make them more strict. That's the bind that he's in, and it's something that Democrats are making him remember at every turn. That's why the Harris-Walz campaign had a bus tour that kicked off this week where they drove by Mar-a-Lago with a bus that was emblazoned with reproductive freedom. They're leaning in hard on this. While Trump is still waffling and wiggling and trying to figure out how to message on this, they're going on the offensive and they're fired up about it.

Brian Lehrer: I'm going to play these two Trump clips again because they're very short and they went by so fast. Also, he took this second position going right into Labor Day weekend, exactly when a politician would typically do something they hope people don't notice. Let's revisit these clips. Last Thursday, he said this when asked about how he would vote on the referendum.

Donald Trump: I am going to be voting that we need more than six weeks.

Brian Lehrer: Again, he didn't really say how he would vote on the referendum there, just that he thought six weeks is too restrictive. Then the next day, last Friday, he clarified regarding the referendum itself like this.

Donald Trump: So, I'll be voting no.

Brian Lehrer: Grace, what happened between those two clips last week?

Grace Panetta: Well, according to a reporting in Politico, there was a fierce 24-hour coordinated lobbying blitz by a lot of forces in the anti-abortion movement to get Trump to commit to voting no on this amendment. As Kimberly spoke to, he's had a transactional push-and-pull relationship with them over the years and in the course of this campaign has really, either disappointed or straight-up irked them at a lot of points, including by distancing himself from the abortion restrictions in the Heritage Foundation's project 2025 as it relates to potential federal restrictions on medication abortion.

On this one, the movement really sees a win here in getting Trump to say on the record, "I'm not voting for this amendment," and in effect, keeping in place that six-week ban that he has previously criticized in the primary. According to this reporting, they want to go even further and get Trump to pledge to appointing abortion opponents, anti-abortion folks, to keep positions in his second administration if he does win.

Brian Lehrer: Does Trump say what he's for in theory? If he says six weeks is too short, but viability, 24 weeks, Roe v. Wade standard, that's on the ballot there, is too much a ban after 12 weeks, 15 weeks, does he take a position on that in that way, Grace?

Grace Panetta: Well, yes. He's previously backed, or his advisors have spoken to 16 weeks as a limit, but at the same time, he's just so muddled his stance on it. It's worth noting that 15 weeks, 16 weeks is an arbitrary number that doesn't really have any basis, obviously, in science or medicine. At the same time, he's also said we have to have exceptions. His typical line when talking about this is, you have to follow your heart, but you need to have exceptions.

He's vaguely backed some restriction in the second trimester, but at the same time, he's not exactly wholeheartedly saying, "Yes, this is what I believe on this. It's not an issue."

Brian Lehrer: Of course, there's no 16-week option on the ballot. You're either for the Roe v. Wade standard or you vote no, which means a six-week ban that he claims to be opposed to stays in effect. Here's a question for you, Kimberly, from a listener who writes-- It's just put as a statement, but the question is obvious. Listener writes, "Harris is outspending Trump on ads in Florida by 50 to 1." Do you see any stat like that?

Kimberly Leonard: No, I don't know where that comes from. That's not true.

Brian Lehrer: Is the Harris campaign outspending Trump at all, to your knowledge?

Kimberly Leonard: No, no. There's barely been any spending in general with this election. The ones that have stood out the most have actually been-- There was a lot of spending in Gaetz's district during the primary and the--

Brian Lehrer: The hyper-conservative Congressman Matt Gaetz from Florida.

Kimberly Leonard: Yes, exactly. Then I would say that there's some ramping up of spending now for the Senate race where Senator Rick Scott is up against Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who's a former congresswoman.

Brian Lehrer: Although the same listener also writes in another text, "Harris has 28 offices in Florida compared to Trump's 12. She has 40,000 volunteers registered in Florida compared to Trump's 1,200." Again, I have no idea where the listener is getting those numbers, but for you, as a Florida politics reporter, what can you say about anything on that topic?

Kimberly Leonard: Yes, it's true that they have had a surge of volunteers. They have 41,000 as of we just reported yesterday because there's a lot of energy around Vice President Harris's candidacy and there's been that same surge in other states. They have built a lot of offices. They have some momentum. There could be results down ballot. It's just that they're not acting in Florida as they're acting in other battleground states where they're spending a ton of money.

The thing to remember too is that the people leading Trump's campaigns are a lot of Florida operatives. They have connections here. He's been courting the grassroots. The grassroots have also been doing-- even though they're not doing the publicized work of having these big events like they did with the reproductive freedom event this week, they're quietly on the ground registering, doing the sort of boring stuff all the time. I often have to work harder to find out what Republicans are doing than Democrats just because they're not advertising it as much, and it's paying off for them because they are registering voters.

A lot of people who've moved to Florida too tend to lead more Republicans, so they've benefited from that. That doesn't mean that the ballot amendment won't pass. It appears poised to pass, and it doesn't mean necessarily that it won't have narrowed the gap between Trump and his Democratic opponent. I think if Biden had been on the ballot, then it would have probably been a double-digit win for Trump in Florida, whereas now it's probably looking more like a single-digit win.

Brian Lehrer: Here's Harriet in Manhattan. I guess that's the northernmost county of Florida. Harriet, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Harriet: Thank you, Brian. I just have one question. If Trump is a convicted felon, how is he allowed to vote at all? I'll take my answer off the air.

Brian Lehrer: Good question. He's a convicted felon in New York. Kimberly, how does that affect his ability to vote or not in Florida?

Kimberly Leonard: Yes, that's actually something Governor DeSantis has been asked about. First of all, yes, because it was in New York, that makes a difference, but also, the state of the case if it's under appeal. Governor DeSantis has also said if there's any kind of issue that he would go ahead and step in and make sure that Trump can vote. He did vote in the primary. We saw a video of him doing that. There doesn't appear to be any barrier at this point to him voting just because of his criminal [crosstalk].

Brian Lehrer: Isn't there a Florida history on this issue? Correct me if my memory is faulty, but there was a referendum a few years ago that would allow convicted felons to regain their right to vote in Florida after they serve their time, but DeSantis is working to limit that. Do I have any of that right?

Kimberly Leonard: Oh, exactly. You have a lot of it right. It's been a very confusing process for a lot of people who live here who thought that their voting rights were restored, and then DeSantis tried to have a bunch of them arrested. It's been kind of a mess. I think this just underscores too that Florida, even though they might elect politicians who are more conservative, their voters will also pick these a la carte options that are more progressive, such as restoring voting rights for people who've previously been convicted of felonies.

Brian Lehrer: DeSantis is against felons having the right to vote unless they're Donald Trump. I said that. You don't have to say that. I do want to ask you about this, though, that you wrote, Kimberly, for the Florida Playbook today about how Republicans are hammering the message that Vice President Harris is, "communist." Yesterday, former President Trump posted a video on Truth Social where he said Harris "is a communist, has always been a communist, and will always be a communist."

That's a message you write that could have an impact on Florida's Latin American voters. Want to tell us more about that? One reason I'm curious about that is we may, around the country, traditionally think of the Florida Latino community as being these conservative Cubans who escaped Castro and their dependents, but it's so much more Latin American diverse than that now. Isn't it?

Kimberly Leonard: Hugely diverse, yes. I can tell you that I've covered Venezuela so much and what's happening with their fraudulent election there and how that is affecting voters and how they're watching what President Biden will do and how Vice President Harris will respond to it. Look, the thing is that there are people on the ground, Democrats, who are concerned that the party hasn't done enough to push back on charges of communism and socialism. That's not a cute word that's thrown around down here. That's a system that people in countries like Venezuela, like Cuba, have fled from in order to come to Florida.

There are Democrats such as Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who's running for Senate, who is very much out front on this, coming out and saying, "No, we're against socialism. We oppose this," and being very vocal about it because they know how salient it's been for Republicans to use that as a weapon in the past. I don't know how it necessarily plays in other states, but I can tell you in South Florida especially, it is something they're concerned about.

There are people that would like to see Vice President Harris come out and really say something really forceful about Venezuela and really forcefully say, "No, I'm not a socialist. No, I'm not a communist," and not just laugh it off. There have been concerns about, Governor Walz made a comment about one person's socialism as another person's neighborliness. That is not really of the times down here in South Florida. The sensitivity by which things are discussed in different regions of America in different pockets, different communities, really matters and could really make a difference.

Brian Lehrer: It means the Republicans are against the human rights violations that are taking place in Venezuela, but they're also against the asylum seekers from there coming here to escape those human rights violations.

Kimberly Leonard: Yes, exactly, but they know that they can message on this. They've done it successfully in the past, and so finding that balance, I think, for Democrats to be able to show that they welcome-- I spoke to Jaime Harrison about this yesterday, but just being able to show that--

Brian Lehrer: Leader of the Democratic Committee. Go ahead.

Kimberly Leonard: Yes. I'm sorry. To be able to say that he wants them also to know that they will be more welcoming to diversity and to immigrants. Yes, it is a delicate balance.

Brian Lehrer: Last thing, Grace. I see you wrote up for The 19th an interesting Republican endorsement for Harris yesterday. Appearing at Duke University in North Carolina, former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney said this when asked who she would be voting for.

Congresswoman Liz Cheney: Because we are here in North Carolina, I think it is crucially important for people to recognize, not only is what I've just said about the danger that Trump poses, something that should prevent people from voting for him, but I don't believe that we have the luxury of writing in candidates' names, particularly in swing states. As a conservative, as someone who believes in and cares about the Constitution, I have thought deeply about this, and because of the danger that Donald Trump poses, not only am I not voting for Donald Trump, but I will be voting for Kamala Harris in this.

[applause]

Brian Lehrer: A lot of cheers from the Duke University crowd. Grace, you wrote this up for The 19th. I think Liz Cheney at this point, although she's already criticized Trump for January 6 and lost her seat over it in a Republican primary, does it move the needle anywhere?

Grace Panetta: It's a good question. Probably not too much just because the share of Republicans who voted for Biden in 2020 was pretty small, and I expect that to, again, be the case this year just because of how polarized the electorate continues to become. I think what Cheney did that was interesting is, she was trying to create a permission structure for those Republicans and maybe other high-profile, never-Trump Republicans, to not just come out against Trump, but to also support Harris. I thought that was interesting.

What stuck out to me was her saying, we don't have the luxury of writing candidates in. Other high-profile Republicans have done that over the past couple of election cycles rather than vote for Trump. I think she's saying, "Hey, this is the way that you, like me, can vote for Kamala Harris."

Brian Lehrer: Grace Panetta from The 19th, Kimberly Leonard from Politico, Florida, thank you both so much for joining us today.

Grace Panetta: Thank you.

Kimberly Leonard: Thank you.

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