Announcer: Welcome to NYC Now, your source for local news in and around New York City from WNYC. It's Monday, April 14th. Here's the midday news from Michael Hill.

Michael Hill: The NYPD says officers shot and killed a man in Astoria this morning. They say the man was acting erratically and had moved toward them with a big knife. It happened near 30th Avenue and 31st Street just before 6:30 this morning. Umar Cisse is a supervisor at the Trade Fair supermarket on the corner. Cisse says security workers at the store recognized the man as someone from the neighborhood who collects bottles.

Umar Cisse: I saw the knife, so he had a-- he was right there by the door. It's a pretty big knife. I think he was charging at them.

Michael Hill: Police say the man was in his 60s. They did not publicly identify him as they worked to notify his family. New York City drivers caught with an obscured license plate will face a $50 fine starting this Wednesday. WNYC's Catalina Gonella has more.

Catalina Gonella: The city's transportation department is cracking down on so-called ghost cars. A new rule going into effect April 16th bans covered, distorted, or fake license plates. Even plates that are rendered unreadable by dirt or rust will be fined. It's part of a push to stop drivers from tampering with their plates to evade tolls, red lights, and street cameras. Officials say ghost cars cost the city more than $100 million in lost revenue in 2023.

Michael Hill: The air quality is moderate today due to some particle pollution and there are moderate levels of tree pollen and low levels of weed pollen in the air. 56 with rain right now, partly sunny later today, a high of 66. Then tomorrow, scattered late morning showers becoming sunny though mid-60s and gusty. Right now, 56 with rain.

Announcer: Stay close. There's more after the break.

David Furst: Now on WNYC, I'm David Furst. We are just two months away from the primary in the New Jersey governor's race. In fact, early voting starts on June 3rd and old-fashioned primary election day is June 10th. So as we count down the weeks, Christopher Shields, director of the Eagleton Center on the American Governor at Rutgers University, joins us for an update. Welcome back.

Christopher Shields: It's great to be back, David. Thank you so much.

David Furst: As the race has evolved since President Trump took office in January, do you have a sense for what the top issues are are on voters minds in the state with news about tariffs, just to give one example, changing wildly from day to day, is it hard for voters to pin down a specific consistent concern?

Christopher Shields: I think in some ways it is, and in some ways it isn't. Governor's races are state races, and they tend to be run on state issues. But I think the top issue in New Jersey right now in this election, as it often is, is affordability, is cost of living, is how much it costs to live in New Jersey. And that certainly is related to a lot of the things that are taking place on the federal level as well because tariffs-- one of the things that we're talking about in terms of the tariffs is whether they're going to drive inflation what it's doing in the markets how is it affecting cost of living?

Generally, that's going to have some spillover to the governor's race as well. So there definitely is a relationship there, and I think it just even further heightens the importance of affordability issues, housing, transit, property taxes, and what it costs to live in New Jersey, I think is clearly the number one issue and probably will continue to be.

David Furst: People are engaged on the national level. How engaged are likely voters when it comes to specific candidates in the primaries?

Christopher Shields: I would say for the most part so far, not very, unfortunately, in the governor's race. But I think that there are a few reasons for that, and I think it's likely to change. It's this interesting paradox where the national political scene is keeping people so actively engaged. People are paying so much attention to it that it does keep them engaged with politics and with what's going on, but it kind of sucks the air out of the room and doesn't leave much space for thinking about the governor's primary just yet. People, I think, get tired and aren't ready to turn to it.

But the other thing about it is that things change so much from day to day that I think it also-- our horizon in politics is really short right now. We look a few weeks ahead and not necessarily even a couple months ahead. I think as we get closer to June, what people are going to start thinking about, there's going to be a lot of energy, a lot of attention is going to shift to the governor's race because it's going to provide an opportunity for people in New Jersey to really actively engage, actively participate in politics and do something. So I think we're not quite there yet, but I think we're going to get there probably over the next few weeks.

David Furst: All right. Well, let's start with the Democratic primary. Some recent polls have suggested that the race is getting tighter. There are a lot of candidates in the race. Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, Congressional representatives Josh Gottheimer, and Mikey Sherrill, Sean Spiller, who is president of the New Jersey Education association, and the former State Senate President, Steve Sweeney. How are the candidates beginning to differentiate themselves?

Christopher Shields: Yeah, I mean, I think there are a couple key things here. The first is for the Spiller campaign, Sean Spiller did not qualify for matching funds, which is a pretty big development in the race. Not so much-- there's a mechanism in New Jersey by which you can qualify for matching funds from the state for your campaign, but you have to reach certain benchmarks that Spiller didn't reach. That's probably not fatal for his campaign from a financial standpoint because he's well supported by PACs. However, it means that he will not be on the primary debate stage in May when the official primary debate takes place.

Beyond that, I think what you're seeing, it's a little bit behind the scenes, it's a little bit inside baseball. But I think what you're seeing in the Democratic race is similar to what you're seeing more broadly nationally amongst the Democratic Party, where you have the more progressive wing of the party, especially young voters, who seem to be aligning with Mayor Baraka. Mayor Philip is there lurking sort of in that lane as well. Baraka is also strong with voters of color in New Jersey, so you see that sort of base developing for Baraka. While the more, for lack of a better word, although maybe it's not the right word, establishment Democrats seem to be leaning more towards Mikey Sherrill, Josh Gottheimer. They're lurking along that lane as well.

And then Steve Sweeney has really good name recognition, but hasn't shown a whole lot of traction in polling. I would caution that that could change really fast. And I think in this race with so many candidates, it's even more volatile than most races. And that's generalized as well. Right. So you certainly have a lot of crossover amongst those voters as well. But that's broadly, I think, how you see the candidates defining their lanes on the Democratic side

David Furst: What about the Republican primary? Candidates include State Senator John Bramnick, former State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, and former conservative radio host Bill Spadea. How is that race evolving?

Christopher Shields: Yeah, the name that you didn't mention there is former state Senator Ed Durr, and you didn't mention for good reason because he ended up not filing to run for governor despite having been on the stage for the debates earlier in the year. So that is significant because it takes-- while he was not a frontrunner. It does take somebody out of the race and particularly somebody who is sort of fighting for that Trump Republican base. So, yeah, those are the three frontrunners who you mentioned.

I do think in the Republican side, you have a little bit more of a frontrunner in Jack Ciattarelli. Recent polling has shown him with a more significant lead than any of the Democrats have amongst his primary. But you do still have-- Bill Spadea has very strong base of support on that side. So, again, you could see a change quickly, but at this point, I think you can start to see the potential, at least for Jack Ciattarelli to maybe pull away a little bit.

David Furst: And to look ahead to the general election for a minute. New Jersey is known as a blue state, but does not always elect a Democrat to be governor. Chris Christie and Christine Todd Whitman were prominent on the national stage as Republican governors from the Garden State. And that wasn't too long ago. And we saw President Trump's 2024 campaign make gains in New Jersey last year. Kamala Harris won the state, but it was by a relatively small margin. Do you think that wave will continue this fall?

Christopher Shields: It's gonna be fascinating to see because you have a couple of competing trends, I think, and the question is going to be which wins out? It's absolutely true in New Jersey on the federal level, has been a blue state in recent years. However, as you note for the governor's race, neither party has held the governor's office for more than two consecutive terms in decades. In that sense, it would seem-- history would suggest that this could be a Republican year for governor in New Jersey.

On the other hand, New Jersey tends to vote the opposite way of the presidential race the year before. So with the Republican winning the presidential last year, generally in New Jersey, that would mean that a Democrat would win this year. There's a little bit of a backlash effect. It's one of the first big races that takes place after the presidential. The opposing party tends to be really motivated to turn out and come vote. And this year, with it being a fairly unique year in terms of reaction to the presidency, I think it's going to be really interesting to see what that effect is. If Democrats are really upset, you may see them turn out in really high numbers, which could mean that it's not a Republican year for governor in New Jersey. So that remains to be seen. There's a lot to happen between now and November, so who knows where we are at that point.

David Furst: Christopher Shields, Director of the Eagleton center on the American Governor at Rutgers University. Thanks for joining us.

Christopher Shields: Thank you so much. And I look forward to continuing to follow the race Primary.

Michael Hill: Primary Election Day in New Jersey is coming up June 10th. Early voting locations open on Tuesday, June 3rd.

Announcer: Thanks for listening. This is NYC Now from WNYC. Catch us every weekday, three times a day for your top news headlines and occasional deep dives. And subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. More soon.

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