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Participant 1: I am hearing that a lot of people that are Black, like I am, are thinking about voting for Trump this time around.

Participant 2: You asked recently if people are Trump curious, and I'm calling in to say much to my surprise and much to my sadness, I am.

Participant 3: I absolutely do believe that more Blacks need to vote for Donald Trump and will vote for Donald Trump.

Participant 4: The question that I have is, why do I hear so many people platforming that Black people are for Trump?

Participant 1: I'm not voting for Trump and any of the friends that I have in my circle or my workplace are not voting for Trump.

Participant 5: I'm so sick of talking about how many Black people will vote for Trump. I don't know any Black people that are voting for Trump. I really want to know who are these people talking to.

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Kai Wright: It's Notes from America. I'm Kai Wright. Welcome to the show. We have spent a couple of shows this year opening our phones and hearing from all of you on questions surrounding this coming presidential election. We'll be doing this throughout the year, and I have been calling these shows Voter Vibe Checks, but let me update that language because our goal is not to parse your votes for the sake of figuring out who's going to win or lose and why. That's just not our work here.

Our goal is to facilitate a broader conversation about democracy. What kind of country do we want to create together? That's our question. As we have these vibe checks throughout the year, yes, we are going to pick up on trends and polls and surveys about voting, but we want to use them as prompts for conversations about what's happening in your lives and your communities, because I think that's also what shapes your politics.

Okay, with that said, this week we are going to wade into some tricky territory with another vibe check. A number of public opinion polls have shown increasing support for Donald Trump amongst Black people. Most notable of these is a regular New York Times/Sienna College poll, in which at one point as much as 23% of Black respondents said they would vote for Trump if the election were held right then.

Now, I got to say a few things right away about this, that that number obviously remains an overwhelming minority of Black people even in this poll. It also reflects a trend seen across all demographic categories by age, race, gender, income, whatever it is, Trump is trending up and Biden is trending down from 2020. It's not just Black people. That said, the numbers among Black people are strikingly higher than they have been in the past, and they are notable for a community that has voted overwhelmingly for Democrats and against Donald Trump specifically.

What, if anything, do these numbers tell us about what's going on inside the Black community right now? We're going to ask you to chime in on that question throughout the hour, and as we do so, I'm joined by my friend, Noel King, who is co-host of the podcast and radio show, Today, Explained, and who has covered many a presidential election. Noel, welcome back to Notes from America.

Noel King: I'm so happy to be here, Kai.

Kai Wright: You are going to help me lead this conversation because it's one you already started over on Today, Explained.

Noel King: Oh, yes.

Kai Wright: You've been digging into this polling data with experts, with your listeners, and we thought, let's team up. Let's talk about it with Notes from America listeners too. Help us get all of ourselves on the same page here about the polling itself. What exactly are we seeing so far and how is it different from what we saw in 2020 or 2016?

Noel King: All right, I want to start with the results of the election in 2020 and in 2016. All right, so in 2020, President Biden got about 90% of the Black vote. In 2016, Hillary Clinton got about 90% of the Black vote. That was not shocking. Since the Civil Rights Movement, Black Americans have tended to vote for the Democrat. Then, as you said, we get this polling that starts coming in late last year and early this year.

What it is showing is somewhere between 20% and 23% of Black registered voters say they would vote for Donald Trump if the election were held right now. Of course, as you know, this is polling, people can change their minds. We are several months out, people do change their minds, but it's that number. It's that 20%, 22%, 23% number that analysts say we can't ignore that.

Kai Wright: Now, but as I said, the trend line is similar in all demographic groups. In some ways, this polling, it says, "Black people are the same as everybody else in this regard," but why, for you, is it so much more notable for Black would-be voters?

Noel King: What I hear from everybody, from reporters to pollsters to historians, is that the Black vote didn't used to be up for grabs. The result was that the Democrats knew Black voters would go for them, and therefore the Black vote was a gimme, and there's a relationship that maybe means the party didn't have to work very hard. If there's a realignment happening, it's not just us that's interested, it's really everyone, because I think everyone wants to go into this election with eyes open.

Kai Wright: The idea that it would be a realignment with this candidate no less-

Noel King: Exactly.

Kai Wright: -is really striking. Then also just to get us all on the same page, is this just that one-time poll, or is this a trend we're seeing across surveys?

Noel King: This seems to be a trend across surveys. There's a survey that you see cited a lot these days from GenForward out of the University of Chicago. That survey showed 17% of Black voters going for Donald Donald Trump this time up from 12% in 2020. Some NBC News polling last November, Black voters around 20% for Donald Trump, and some NPR polling, from just a few days ago, shows that Biden lost 34 points to Trump since 2020 among all voters of color.

Kai Wright: 34 points.

Noel King: Yes.

Kai Wright: A lot of those are Hispanic voters, but a lot of those are Black voters. Like I said, you first started clueing into this with The Times Poll back in February, but was this a conversation you heard in your own circles?

Noel King: Yes. [laughs]

Kai Wright: Are your Black people talking about this?

Noel King: I'm the type of reporter that if people in my own circle are not talking about a thing, I'm deeply suspicious of it, but the reason that poll really hit me is because people in my circles were in fact saying that they were interested in Trump. They were Trump curious. A couple of months ago, I was talking to a neighbor, the perfect nice young man in the neighborhood helps everyone out, kind to everyone.

He's in his late 20s, and he works in real estate. He sells houses. We started talking about the election and he told me, "I'm probably going to vote for Trump." I said, "Okay, no judgment, but why?" He knew exactly what I was asking. He said, "Look, I get that Trump is racist and I get that he is a criminal, but my job is to sell houses, and when interest rates are high, I can't sell houses."

I said, "Okay." Then Kai, another place where you get a lot of conversation is at the hair salon. I find in the last six months when I go to the hair salon, I'm hearing a lot about immigration and crime. People who feel like they came to the US the right way, and they believe that Joe Biden opened the border, and that has led to more crime. Then, of course, we're going to talk later about a call out that we recently did on today explained where we heard a lot of the same, but I need to ask you because you've seen the same polling I have. What are you thinking about when you see these numbers?

Kai Wright: I think what struck me the most, Noel, is there's this question they ask, do you think Joe Biden and Donald Trump's policies helped or hurt you personally or it had no effect? More registered voters by a good margin have said that Trump's policies helped them personally, 40% said Trump's policies helped them personally and only 18% said Biden's policies helped them personally.

Then, when you look at it across demographics, that gap recurs, age, race, all of it, including Black people. That's where there's the smallest gap, but it's still there, like 26% of Black people versus 17% of Black people said that Trump's policies helped them versus Biden's policies helped them on a personal level, and then the vast majority said that neither made much a difference in their personal life, or they didn't know.

I just think that says a lot. You can tell people-- An elected official can run around, telling people until they're blue in the face about this is what I have done for you, but if you do not feel it on a personal level, I don't know where you go from there.

Noel King: There you go. Yes.

Kai Wright: There's a bunch of data in there that we're going to dig around into, but I want to ask you about-- Like you said, you started this conversation with your listeners at Today, Explained. You started to get some voicemails. I want to play one of the voicemails you got, because I imagine it's something we'll need to address here too. Listen to this. This is Pat from Chicago.

Pat: Hi, my name is Pat from Chicago, Illinois. My problem with this whole our Black people, a group that I belong to, whether or not we're going to vote for Trump, I just find ridiculous only because of confirmation bias and things like small samples when it comes to polling and all that. I really don't think that Black people are going to go all in for Trump. I really think that it's just a media circus thing so that if he does win, we'll have a group to blame like we did last time.

Kai Wright: That is Pat from Chicago. Listeners, first off, if you agree with Pat or if you're not like that, if you actually are hearing this somewhere, give the number again, 844- 745-TALK, that's 844-745-8255. If you are a Black person who has become Trump curious, or if you're hearing this in your social circle at all.

Noel, what about that? What do you have to say to somebody like Pat, who was responding to the conversation you guys started on Today, Explained?

Noel King: What I would say is, I hear that concern loud and clear. If Donald Trump wins, Black Americans get blamed. I understand that it's possible that the media, myself included, are paying too much attention to polling with the election being months away. The thing that got me very interested though in this, Kai, is that I also think that Black Americans have the right to vote for whomever we think will do the most for us.

If some percentage of the community thinks that that person is Donald Trump, I want to know why. What is he doing? What is Trump doing, or is Biden failing? The thing that I'd say to Pat, is it overplayed? Well, the truth is Donald Trump doesn't need that many Black voters to switch from voting Democrat in swing states in order to be really, really helped in this election, and that's why I want to pay attention to this.

Kai Wright: Certainly, from an electoral politics perspective, 25% of the Black vote is meaningful. Also, just from a community, a quarter of the Black people, if I just chose all the Black people I know and a quarter of them have believed this, which is different than we've seen in the past, then that does feel like there's something happening in the community that we need to talk about. Quickly, before we go to break, how would you characterize the responses you've been getting overall from listeners?

Noel King: All right. It's a small sample size, but it looks a lot like the polling. About 80% of people who reached out to us said, "This is nonsense. Don't even ask the question." Other people said, "If you vote for Trump, you must be crazy." Then, about a quarter said, "Yes, I either plan to vote for Trump, or I am Trump curious. I'm worried about the border crime, the economy." In one case, a woman called and said her father will likely vote for Trump because of Biden's policies on Israel, so we got a real variety here.

Kai Wright: Right. I'm Kai Wright. I'm talking with Noel King, co-host of the podcast and radio show Today, Explained. Coming up, we'll open the phones and hear from you. Tell us what you're hearing. Tell us what you're thinking. More with Noel King and your calls just ahead.

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It's Notes from America. I'm Kai Wright, and I am joined by Noel King, co-host of the podcast and radio show Today, Explained. Noel and her team have begun a conversation with their listeners about Black voters who may be more open to Donald Trump and his MAGA movement than we've seen in previous elections. We invited Noel to join us and see what you are all hearing and thinking as well. We can take your calls and texts also for the rest of the hour. We're going to be joined by a reporter who's been covering this here in a moment, but I want to go quickly to one call. Let's go to Mordecai in Raleigh, North Carolina. Mordecai, welcome to the show.

Mordecai: Yes. Hello. First, I want to start by saying Trump is not a racist. By the way, of course, I'm a Black voter, and I'm a Democrat. Trump is not a racist. I want to go back to 1994 first to talk about Bill Clinton, and what he did not do to stop the genocide in Rwanda. He didn't do a thing. That's number one. Number two, I want to talk about what Joe Biden is not doing to stop what could very well turn into genocide in Sudan, in addition to what he is not doing to stop the genocide in Gaza.

Only thing Biden's doing, and the only thing it seems that the Democrats want to do is talk a lot of politics, a lot of political speak, and not actually have any specific tangible actions that can make a change. At least Trump, I know where he stands, and I know that he'll take action on certain issues.

Kai Wright: Thank you, Mordecai. Go ahead, Noel. Hang on, Mordecai.

Noel King: Yes. Mordecai, I just wanted to ask. It sounds like your main concern this election cycle is foreign policy, what's happening overseas, what the Biden administration does or doesn't do overseas versus what's happening here at home. Is that a fair assessment?

Mordecai: That's a good assessment. Certainly, I've been fortunate enough to not have any economic or financial problems in my life. Certainly, when Trump was in office, things were fine. I guess essentially things are okay now as well. I'm not complaining about economic issues at this point.

Kai Wright: Okay. Thank you for that, Mordecai. Noel and I are going to, also, now be joined by Brandon Tensley, who is the National Politics Reporter at Capital B, where he covers the impact of policy and political movements on Black people in America. He's been covering the campaign, including Republican efforts to reach out to Black voters. Brandon, thanks for coming on the show.

Brandon Tensley: Thank you both for having me.

Kai Wright: You've been covering Black voters across the country for several presidential elections at this point, actually. You spoke with voters in the 2016 race and in 2020, how, from your vantage point, has the perception of Trump changed over the course of those election cycles in the Black community, or if it has at all?

Brandon Tensley: Yes. One thing, to me, when it comes to these kinds of polls, is I'm not saying that we should ignore them, but I also think that it's important to be careful about giving them too much explanatory or predictive hour in terms of what will happen in November. Partly, I say that because I remember there was a poll in, I believe it was November 2019, that was saying that about 20% of Black voters were considering voting for Trump.

Then, of course, as you both have talked about on this show, in November 2020, Trump got about 8% of Black votes. To me, that's just to inject a little bit of caution about what people say in the lead-up to an election versus what actually happens on election day. I think, for me, what these kinds of polls are useful for, and what I take away from them is, it's clear that a not insignificant number of Black voters are frustrated with Biden.

I think what might be more likely to happen is that Black voters will either still vote for Biden, hold their nose, and vote for Biden, or they might exit the election. They might not vote at all. When I think about some of the reporting that I've done, the people I've talked to in different communities, I feel like that's been a huge concern, just getting voter turnout to where they want it to be.

Kai Wright: When you said that we've seen this kind of pattern before, what are things you may have learned when you say, "Okay, well, the polling said this, but people did that, but it revealed x." What are some of the things in previous elections that we've seen? Are there examples of that that help us understand it?

Brandon Tensley: Yes. You just mean in terms of what are people thinking when they switch like that? I think one thing that it can be useful for is really signaling in probably an effective way that you are frustrated with the current person in the White House. It's a way to get attention because the media will take it seriously. Journalists will take it seriously. They'll talk about it. It's a way to get across to candidates that I am not happy with x, y, z issues, the way that you've been approaching them, and this is my way to show that frustration in a very visible and also just very alarming way.

If you think that Black voters are going to go from 8% or something to like 23%, that's huge, especially when we're talking about competitive or battleground states, that is a very significant margin to pay attention to. I think when Black voters can signal that to the different candidates who are running, it lights a fire under them, and it might be able to get them to pay attention to what they want them to pay attention to.

Noel King: Brandon, let me ask you about what you're hearing. You have the benefit of being an on-the-ground reporter and knocking on doors and talking to people. What are you hearing about folks' priorities in the 2024 election? What's undeniable is the question that I like to ask.

Brandon Tensley: Yes. I think, first and foremost, the concern that I've heard about the most has absolutely been the economy, jobs, and I think that we can even make a case for describing it as just something as stark and sharp as economic insecurity, job insecurity with Black voters. We're not talking about economic anxiety in the way that it was framed with white voters in 2016 with this perceived loss of social, or political, or economic status.

With Black voters, I think what we're really talking about it's economic precarity. It's basic necessities. It's this feeling of insecurity. Can people afford childcare? Can people afford groceries? What about rent? What about medical bills and car payments get to work? I think that has been the through line for all of the conversations that I've had with organizers, that I've had with everyday voters, that I've had with state-level political leaders, but really the economy and jobs have been probably the overarching issue.

Kai Wright: We have one texter who says-- this is a text from Freedom who says, "They're retired military and civil communications employee who serves a black-owned barbershop." That they have some patrons who don't believe that Donald Trump will lose because of Biden's running mate. They feel like Vice President Harris is going to fix these numbers for Joe Biden. Add that to her job description, I suppose. Let's go to Jan in Connecticut. Jan, welcome to the show.

Jan: Thank you. Hi.

Kai Wright: Hi Jan. What have you been hearing or what are you thinking yourself?

Jan: I'm hearing from friends and family that they're still not going to vote for Trump. They think anybody that would, is crazy. Personally, I think that he has a strong chance of winning. The people that voted him in are still around, and then we have voters that have now turned 18 that their parents or whoever they're influenced by. I feel like he still has a strong chance of winning. To me, equally, I feel like Black and brown people the issue is racism and discrimination from out of Trump's camp. At this point, I don't feel like there's any difference actually.

I feel like there's more atrocities happening internationally for brown and Black people, and we're losing a lot of money, and aid is being sent over to Israel to help with the aid of essentially what I feel to be the killing of brown and Black people. What is the difference now between Biden and Trump? Really, there isn't. For the first time, I have considered voting for Trump, not for him himself, but for a change in administration.

Kai Wright: Just to shake it up because something different has to happen.

Jan: Yes. Something different has to happen.

Noel King: What I'm so interested in here, Jan, is again, like our first caller, you are saying it's foreign policy for you. You are saying that what matters a lot to you is what is going on outside of America versus what is going on here at home. How's your life been under the Biden administration? How's things been going for you?

Jan: Under both administrations, things have been good for me. I'm fortunate to be, I would say, in the upper middle class. Though yes, the price of food and different things are going up based on the economy, it hasn't affected me financially, but I see it affecting other people. My concern is that under the Biden's administration, Biden was set to provide a couple more billion dollars of aid to Israel again, but we have people here, and it's white, Black, brown, that are struggling to make ends meet, and yet, we're taking this money to give it to Israel. I just can't understand why are we not taking care of at home first.

Yes, foreign policy and power and affairs is really significant at this time because that money should be staying home. If we have an administration change, that is willing to recognize we're going to take care of America first, I think that's what needs to happen. I think at this point, everybody-- I can't say Biden is a great man and I can't say Trump is a great man, but I can hope for administration change.

Kai Wright: Thank you for that, Jan. Brandon, can I ask you? Donald Trump's core platform has been and remains this idea of America first. We heard at least one piece of that note in Jan there about what about us here while you're so focused on what's happening abroad, President Biden, and I just wonder how much you have heard that idea and how much the specific America First vision of Donald Trump is newly resonant in with voters that you're talking to?

Brandon Tensley: Yes. Actually while hearing that comment, it actually made me think about a direct quote from someone I spoke to earlier this year. He's a Black organizer in South Carolina where I'm from. I pulled up the quote just to make sure I had it accurate, and he said, "If Biden stood with us on the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, the same way he's standing with Israel, we might have gotten something passed."

I think it's less America First in the way that Trump often means it in terms of white nationalism and just formalizing anti-Blackness in America First as in taking care of all Americans, Black Americans included. I've definitely heard that sentiment that we just heard from people I've talked to through reporting for sure.

Kai Wright: Let's go to Kinsey in Baltimore. Kinsey, welcome to the show.

Kinsey: Hey, thanks for taking my call. I guess I want to piggyback on America First. I've seen that as the demographics and the nations made some changes, the United States becomes a little more Latino. Immigration is a big issue, I think, for African Americans who feel that their traditional place here is being challenged by the new arrivals and the anti-Blackness many of them bring with them. Also, that anti-immigrant sentiment that I think native African Americans are feeling pushed, and pushed out of the workplace, entitlements, jobs, and civil rights opportunities in favor of new arrivals or migrants. I know in the groups I circulate in, I hear a lot about migrants.

You can look around and see all the construction jobs that once were held by Black people are now held by Latinos, and you don't know where those Black people are now. Also, I think the cultural war has a particular resonance with a lot of more conservative African Americans, and with the rise of the internet and the Black manosphere, which is very conservative, and people like Tariq Nasheed who are targeting non-native Black populations who migrate here and they feel get ahead. I saw an article last year that most of the top jobs helping Biden and Biden's cabinet were children of Black immigrants held by Blacks. The Vice President is the child of immigrants. [crosstalk]

Kai Wright: Just for time, Kinsey, I'm going to stop you. For you are in your community, then you are in fact hearing, just to make sure I'm clear, that all of these factors are things you're hearing people say, this is making me curious about Trump.

Kinsey: Yes. It challenges their place. It's their version of America First is they not wanting to be replaced in another group.

Kai Wright: Thank you for that, Kinsey. Again not wanting to be replaced is an explosive phrase that we have heard from Donald Trump's camp many times in reference to white people not wanting to be replaced, white replacement theory. That seems to be resonating or according to Kinsey is resonating. I want to talk to you both about this, but we're going to have to go to break in a minute. Let me start with you, Brandon. Immigration as a topic, how big is that in the voters you're talking to?

Brandon Tensley: Yes. I haven't heard it come up as one of the chief concerns. I've heard things like the economy, jobs, safety against white supremacy, but also safety against crime, gun violence. I've heard those kinds of issues come up more frequently than immigration. I think what Kinsey was getting at with that, that I think is interesting, is that it shows how layered this conversation is because it sounds like we actually are still talking about the economy and jobs, but we're just talking about it through the lens of immigration. It's still this feeling of economic insecurity, job insecurity, but we're looking at it through a different sort of lens, if that makes sense.

In this case, it's immigration, it's labor force, labor supply, who is working, who has jobs, who doesn't have jobs. For me, that's an interesting thing about this is Trump could be able to be effective in some of that messaging if he's able to tailor it to really tap in some of the deeper concerns and fears that Black voters have.

Kai Wright: Then again, just like with foreign policy, if it's less about, oh, we don't want those people, and more about, don't forget you, I got your back, while the President is worried about other things, then that might be more resonant.

We need to take a break. I'm Kai Wright. I'm talking with Brandon Tensley, the National Politics Reporter for Capital B, and with Noel King, co-host of the podcast and radio show Today, Explained. Noel and her team have begun a conversation on their show about why public opinion polls are now consistently showing more Black voters ready to support Donald Trump than we've seen in previous elections. What's behind that? We are taking your calls on the subject. If you are a Black voter who is newly considering Trump, their particular aspect of his policies, or his politics that appeals to you now more than it did before. It's 844-745-8255. More of your calls and conversation with Brandon and Noel after the break.

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Katerina Barton: Hey, it's Katerina Barton from the show team at Notes from America with Kai Wright. Something happens to me when I listen to this show, no matter the topic or the guest, I can always think of someone I want to tell about what I just heard, and I do. If you're thinking about who in your life would enjoy this episode or another episode you've heard, please share it with them now. The folks in your life trust your good taste, and we would appreciate you spreading the word. If you really want to go above and beyond, please leave us a review. It helps more people, the ones you know, and the ones you don't, find the show. I'll let you get back to listening now. Thanks.

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Kai Wright: Welcome back. This is Notes from America. I'm Kai Wright. Before we get back to our conversation for this week, a quick note about an upcoming show. A few election cycles back, a number of states passed new laws that gave formally incarcerated people back their right to vote. There was tons of speculation at the time about how that would or would not change the electorate.

We're going to dig into that question with people who've been working on it, what happened? We also want to hear from you. If you are a formerly incarcerated person who has newly gained the right to vote in your state, talk to us. What is important to you in this election cycle? How are you thinking about using your vote? You can leave us a voice memo by sending an email to notes@wnyc.org. Record a voicemail on your phone, send it to us at notes@wnyc.org. Be sure to include your first name and where you are contacting us from, and thank you in advance.

This week I am talking with Brandon Tensley, National Politics Reporter for Capital B, and with Noel King, co-host of the podcast and radio show Today, Explained, about all these public opinion polls that are showing consistently now. More Black voters ready to support Donald Trump than we've seen in previous elections. What's that about? What's behind it? What's it say about what's going on in our community?

We were talking about immigration a little bit before the break. Noel, part of how you got started in this conversation on your show is you had a conversation with Charlamagne tha God, radio host Charlamagne tha God at South by Southwest, that got a lot of folks talking.

[laughter]

First of all, just why him? Why did you want to talk to Charlamagne about this?

Noel King: Just after the New Year, POLITICO ran a big piece by the journalist Brakkton Booker. This piece was titled Biden's Trouble with Charlamagne tha God. Charlamagne, as many of our listeners will know, he hosts the Breakfast Club. It's a morning hip-hop show. He in particular has become known for these probing interviews of politicians like Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Nikki Haley.

He really cuts to the chase and eliminates a lot of formalities and just asks the candidates questions like, what are you going to do for us? Now, what I think is important about Charlamagne is that boldness, but also that his audience is very big. It is very young, and it is an overwhelmingly Black audience, and he allows people to call into the show. A person who hosts a call into show like yourself, I think in some ways, really does have their pulse on what people are thinking in a way that most of us simply cannot because we just don't hear from dozens of people every day.

Kai Wright: Right. What did he say that surprised you?

Noel King: I asked him the question, what's undeniable this year? I thought that he was going to tell me that he's hearing a lot about the economy from his callers. In fact, he is. The thing that surprised me was that he said, people are calling him, concerned about the border. He said that people in Chicago, people in New York are complaining that migrants are getting more resources that are already limited, and that people in the Black community are not getting them as a result of that. Now, what's interesting to me is we just heard a caller express something very similar, didn't we? That there are limited resources, not everybody can be served. If one group is being served, that means another group isn't.

Kai Wright: As you said, Brandon, it draws the line back to the economy actually in the end with all of these issues. Ell from Cleveland text us and says, "I am related to two to three Black men who regularly vote conservatives. These are guys who haven't been 'winners' in their marriages nor dented the middle-class. There's an incel emasculated energy about these guys. They're typically sexist about women and homophobic regarding the LGBTQ community. In my local suburb, Black people were blamed via a social media post when Trump won. It's like the largest society expects Black people to save them from themselves."

A few things in there. One of them is this question of gender. I'm not going to co-sign Ell's take that these are all not "winners." I do wonder about gender in this. The fact that Trump's strong man personality is not race specific. You don't have to be a white man to be into that it would seem to me. Brandon, what have you heard or seen about the gender divide on this? Is there such a gender divide of this amongst Black people?

Brandon Tensley: Yes. I think there is a bit of a gender divide. That's why we're seeing some of the messaging that we're seeing. I think without being too essentialist about. Black men, I think that based on conversations, anecdotal evidence issues that we've heard already on the show today. Business investment, taxes, those sorts of things can strike a chord with a lot of Black men.

To again, bring it back to the economy, these issues tap into something that I think is particularly salient among Black voters, which is a simple desire to live a life where they can thrive. These are issues that Trump really emphasizes all the time. Even through this emphasis on business ownership, I think there are very clear echoes of Richard Nixon's own emphasis or embrace of Black capitalism.

Kai Wright: Tell us about that. Everybody may not know about this. You make this reference to Richard Nixon's embrace of Black capitalism. What do you mean by that?

Brandon Tensley: Sure. This was the language about Black economic self-determination, self-sufficiency, Black enterprise. It really sought to just segregate the economy, chip away at things like the social safety net, chip away at things like poverty programs, and to lessen the Black people's supposed dependence on the state. I think to the surprise of nobody, these things actually were not really good for Black people.

I don't know if this messaging how much it can or will make a difference because, again, just the state of the present day Republican party. I think the image, the way that somebody phrased it to me one time is that the GOP brand is just really damaged in the eyes of most Black Americans. I don't quite know how much that messaging will really resonate when we actually get to November. I think that is part of the strategy there.

Noel King: Brandon, I wonder if we go back to the question of gender, I think there's something undeniable here, which is if you look at polls of white women, what you're going to see, and what we saw in 2020 was that they did not like Donald Trump. They didn't go for Donald Trump in the same way that white men did. If we say, okay, we're looking at a situation in which Black men may find Donald Trump more appealing and Black women less.

That would actually just make sense to me the way Donald Trump, sorry, the way he talks about women, his previous actions with women. I'm wondering is there any decent polling that actually breaks things out by gender and by race?

Brandon Tensley: Yes. I think that's a really good question. I can't think of numbers off the top of my head about where Black men versus Black women in this instance stand on their willingness or their curiosity to vote for Trump. I think that is really important data. I think, Noel, what you're saying about just Trump's general messaging, how it taps into these gender roles, gender stereotypes are things that will appeal to some people, won't appeal to other people, will just really just turn off a lot of people.

Then I think especially when you can tie these notions about gender, about what men should be doing, should not be doing to issues like the economy. This idea of being a provider for your family, those are going to be issues that I think will resonate with some voters and that resonate with other ones. It'll just turn them off.

Kai Wright: Let's go to Derek in Harlem. Derek, welcome to the show.

Derek: Hi. Am I on the air?

Kai Wright: You're on the air, Derek. What do you want to tell us about with this trend? Is this something that you're thinking about? Are you Trump curious as we put it? Are you hearing this conversation in your community?

Derek: I'm not Trump curious. I mean, I know what he's about, but there's a big problem here. What are Black folks to do if they're discussing with the Democrats? The Democrats always blame someone else. They pathologize people who support Trump. When they lose, it's always, "Oh, well, you should have done this and you should have done, I shouldn't have really lost." There's basically almost assumption that Democrats own Black folks. All right, because my person has written off the system, that's just it. What are Black people to do? Other groups, they get mad at the other guy. It's like, "Okay, bye, we're going to hurt you." Unions do it, everybody, well, unions don't do it that much anymore, but that's the deal, that's the game. One last thing, when you say domestic and foreign policy, Biden himself, when he got in, he said there's no real barrier anymore between domestic and foreign policy. Did he not say that? Yes, he did. What are we really talking about here?

Kai Wright: Derek, we can count you as someone who's frustrated with all of the above and don't know where to turn. That's what I'm hearing.

Derek: I know where to, what I do but that's, I mean, because I don't really look to them to answer anything.

Kai Wright: I understand. Let's go to James in North Carolina, and thank you, Derek. Sorry about that. Let's go to James in North Carolina. James, welcome to the show.

James: Thank you so much.

Kai Wright: What do you want to tell us, James?

James: What I wanted to tell you was, as a lifelong Democrat, I have chosen to step away from the party and have become an independent, simply because I'm just really, really not impressed with the current administration's foreign policy particularly in Gaza. Because what it is that I do see is that we are standing with, when I say we as a country led by our administration, our government, is standing by Israel and supplying them with the very weapons that they need to continue to annihilate a Black and brown people, a people of color. I'm just not understanding that, nor do I support it. However, like the last caller, what are we to do? Simply because they do, they, meaning the Democrats, do feel as though they have the Black vote tied up.

That was what it is that I chose to do. Among the circles that I travel in, it is an absolute thumbs down for Trump. A lot of it is based upon what is that we saw the four years that he was in office, saying that or not saying, but just the feel that white supremacy was on the rise. That those particular people that felt that particular way really, really didn't have a problem with spreading that level of hate, that level of white supremacy as well as white nationalism. There is a concern there, but the Black folk, that is, I know in the circles I travel in, it's definitely a no for Trump. For me, it's neutral right now. I'm not saying yes and I'm not saying no, but it would definitely be a no for Trump.

Kai Wright: Thank you for that, James. That makes me think of, I want to play a voicemail we got from Jacqueline in Dallas, because there's a similar thing happening here that she wants to talk about.

Jacqueline: My name is Jacqueline. I live in Dallas, Texas. I will not be voting for Trump, and when I talk to other people in my area and in my circle of friends, I don't know anyone who will be voting for Trump. Let me say this, my great nephew, who is 28 years old, I cannot get him to the polls to vote. He feels like it's unnecessary and it's a waste of time. There's nothing I can say to him. He feels like no one is considering our Black race on either side, Republican or Democrat, no one is considering us. I don't agree with that, but I cannot get him to the polls to vote.

Kai Wright: I played that, and I want to hear both of you respond with Noel and Brandon talk about it because in James's conversation and the caller before that, and Jacqueline, this note of resignation like, "Well, I don't know what we're supposed to do, none of this is really for me or for my community, so I'm at a loss."

Noel King: I'm no strategist, but if I am a Democratic operative or part of the Biden campaign hearing this, I'm really concerned because what we're talking about are folks who are going to stay home, they're not going to vote. I think that every election cycle, each party worries about the people who are going to stay on the couch as the old expression goes, but this time around we're hearing it early. What it feels to me like is we're hearing early that there's just not a lot of excitement about the 2024 election. I don't know, Brandon, what do you think?

Brandon Tensley: No, I absolutely agree that this is what I was saying at the top of the show where I think what seems less likely is, it seems less likely that all of a sudden almost a quarter of Black voters will turn out for Trump. What is probably more likely is that like one of the previous callers might hold their nose, vote for Biden, anyway or just not vote at all. That level of voter apathy about what's possible about, will this vote actually change anything? I've heard organizers tell me that an attitude that they run up against all the time is why are we having literally the exact same election that we did four years ago with the exact same case, like older white dudes. Basically, like why--

Kai Wright: It's a fair question. I have the same question. [laughs].

Noel King: Sure is.

Brandon Tensley: Yes.

Kai Wright: One thing that is notable, just sort of bring it back to the poll itself, I want to say, because the other thing that came out of Jacqueline's voicemail, she's talking about her great nephew, 28 years old. In that poll, in that New York Times/Sienna College poll, it was clear that the most profound shift was amongst young voters, people under the age of 45. That over age 35, Biden is still doing fine, up to 80 something percent of Black voters say they want to vote for him. Whereas when you look at young voters we're down to something like 50%. Brandon in our closing moments here, young voters.

Brandon Tensley: Yes. This is something that at Capital B we thought a lot about, especially as we were working on our progress report that we just published this past week about Biden and Black voters feelings about him going into the November election. I think one of the issues that I'm really curious to explore more, to report on more is this, we're seeing different attachments that younger versus older Black voters have to the Democratic party. When I think about older Black voters, people like my parents who are their late 60s, early 70s, that basic right to vote is still powerfully associated with the Democratic Party. The fact that it was Lyndon B. Johnson, a Democrat, who signed the Civil Rights Act in 1964, the Voting Rights Act in 1965. That distance between now and living in a Jim Crow regime is still incredibly short. I think for younger Black voters, and it maybe sounds like this is what this previous scholar was just saying, that history, that affinity isn't so strong, so that allegiance isn't as strong.

Kai Wright: Isn't as tight. I got to stop you, Brandon. Ten seconds, Noel, what's next for you on this conversation?

Noel King: We're going to keep talking. We want people to keep calling us. We want to hear from you really.

Kai Wright: Okay. Brandon Tensley is national reporter for Capital B. He's covering this election and what's happening with Black voters. Thanks, Brandon. Noel King is co-host of Today, Explained. She and her team, as she said, are going to keep digging into this, so check them out wherever you get your podcast or check your local public radio listings. Thanks, Noel.

Notes From America is a production of WNYC Studios. Follow us wherever you get your podcasts, and on Instagram @noteswithkai. if you can keep talking to us as well, leave a voicemail, 844-745-TALK, or send us a voice memo at @notesatwnyc.org. This episode was produced by Suzanne Gaber. Theme music by Jared Paul. Matthew Marando is our live engineer. Our team also includes Katerina Barton, Regina de Heer, Siona Petros, and Lindsay Foster Thomas, and I am Kai Wright. Thank you for spending time with us.

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